Stock Market is the bottom in?

[SD51555]

Bonds are still a loser at the moment, but the ultra short term treasuries are a nice place to hide out while the market continues to decline. There are lots in my watch list that are hitting their 52 week lows and still diving: UPS, Tractor Supply, Generac, Medtronic, Home Depot, Clorox, Conagra, General Mills, Genuine Parts Company, Xcel Energy, Wisconsin Energy, Morgan Stanley, Rumble, Archer Daniels, Kimberly Clark, Tyson Foods, US Bank, Texas Instruments...

You gotta beat inflation, that's the bottom line. I'm figuring on 10% now. If you're not getting 10%, you're falling behind. The uni-party has been cutting benefits all along by underreporting inflation and driving the dollar into the ground. I imagine the only entities still holding long term treasuries are those that hold the guaranteed sale option from the fed.

 

[Foggy47]

Bonds are still a loser at the moment, but the ultra short term treasuries are a nice place to hide out while the market continues to decline. There are lots in my watch list that are hitting their 52 week lows and still diving: UPS, Tractor Supply, Generac, Medtronic, Home Depot, Clorox, Conagra, General Mills, Genuine Parts Company, Xcel Energy, Wisconsin Energy, Morgan Stanley, Rumble, Archer Daniels, Kimberly Clark, Tyson Foods, US Bank, Texas Instruments...

You gotta beat inflation, that's the bottom line. I'm figuring on 10% now. If you're not getting 10%, you're falling behind. The uni-party has been cutting benefits all along by underreporting inflation and driving the dollar into the ground. I imagine the only entities still holding long term treasuries are those that hold the guaranteed sale option from the fed.

If you been getting 10% average over the last decade....your golden. Not me. Been hard out-performing inflation for many folks. My portfolio is a bit hard to measure as I pull 4% each year (4% divided by 12 each month) and we've built homes and such from my portfolio, and have done some gifting, which makes some fair swings in value.. Still, I'm behind about 15% over the past two years after taking my "allowance". F'n Biden.

Been retired pushing 20 years now.....and my net worth is considerably more than when I retired....so I suppose I am happy there.....but inflation has exploded the cost of living. Wut?....Me Worry?

 

[SD51555]

If you been getting 10% average over the last decade....your golden. Not me. Been hard out-performing inflation for many folks. My portfolio is a bit hard to measure as I pull 4% each year (4% divided by 12 each month) and we've built homes and such from my portfolio, and have done some gifting, which makes some fair swings in value.. Still, I'm behind about 15% over the past two years after taking my "allowance". F'n Biden.

Been retired pushing 20 years now.....and my net worth is considerably more than when I retired....so I suppose I am happy there.....but inflation has exploded the cost of living. Wut?....Me Worry?

I'm not saying I'm getting 10%. I'm saying a person needs to be growing by 10% to keep up with how fast we're being robbed by the money printers.

 

[Foggy47]

I'm not saying I'm getting 10%. I'm saying a person needs to be growing by 10% to keep up with how fast we're being robbed by the money printers.

Through the 80' and 90's I was able to compound about 10% annually. Much of this was by health care portfolio, and by BRiC mutual funds. (sadly). Tho technology investments also played a part. The point is...GROWTH stocks are going to be the big winners for you going forward. Drugs, health care, technology are all sound bets......IMO. I suppose AI should fit in there too?

 

[Bill]

Been retired pushing 20 years now.....and my net worth is considerably more than when I retired....so I suppose I am happy there.....but inflation has exploded the cost of living. Wut?....Me Worry?

I feel your pain. Net worth is Dandy as long you don't want (have) to sell something you love and can actually touch...

 

[b116757]

I suspect Foogy was infuring his investment accounts have accually grown rather than shrunken in retirement do to a structured withdraw rate and sound investment perhaps I misunderstood.

 

[Foggy47]

I suspect Foogy was infuring his investment accounts have accually grown rather than shrunken in retirement do to a structured withdraw rate and sound investment perhaps I misunderstood.

You got it about right. Actually we've bought and sold our way into higher valued real estate over time...while staying within our means. Also, have gifted for all those years to our family. I suspect if I did a balance sheet....we have outpaced inflation by just a bit while enjoying a nice retirement. We have stayed with our allocation plan through thick and thin. I've been a lucky guy. As the old adage goes: your results may vary.

One thing I would like to point out......is that if you make an expensive trip to Europe or Hawaii etc.....that money is GONE. If instead you purchase a vacation property or other long-lived asset (a decent tractor with a cab comes to mind ) that money is not spent.....it is simply re-invested and you can recapture those dollars if you need them. Stop spending.....and start investing in things of lasting value (I say).

Not saying travel is not important.....as you may be investing in yourself.....but the dollars are gone in any event.

 

[jsasker007]

I know people that get a lot back in taxes and spend every penny immediately to go on vacation. Then they have to beg borrow and steal money from others to make it through the year. They have been doing this for many years and believe it or not they don't have jack shit to show for it. SOME PEOPLE

 

[T-Max]

I know people that get a lot back in taxes and spend every penny immediately to go on vacation. Then they have to beg borrow and steal money from others to make it through the year. They have been doing this for many years and believe it or not they don't have jack shit to show for it. SOME PEOPLE

I have employees that look at me sideways when I explain that in my ideal world I would break even on taxes or even owe a slight amount at the end of the year. They tell me they rely on that tax return and wouldn’t know what to do without it. I quit explaining it to them at this point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Foggy47]

^ You can't save 'em all. Some people are just not capable of planning or savings......it's just not in their genes. I tried a stint as a financial planner......and hated the job. Many of the folks that could benefit the most could not see their way clear to save anything. Many were just not serious about their own future. I guess they just figure it out after they have too many issues? Anyway.....glad I changed careers.....it was not for me. I always thought I should read some of those folks the book called the "The Three Pigs".......straw, hay, bricks and mortar......you gotta hit some folks with a wet mop. lol.

 

[Foggy47]

Old guys like me like to tell stories. Here is one about saving and budgets.

When I went into my business......I was bound and determined to not borrow any money....other than my already invested seed money.....and to make the business pay it's own way. I had a good product and a good plan with decent margins....I just needed time for the plan to evolve. I had invested in good computer software and had an employee that could run the office and that program. She would also do some assembly and shipping, and whatever it took to keep things humming along. As an incentive for her to come to work for me....I told her that if we were still in business after one year.....I would send her and her husband on a fly-in fishing trip to Canada. I bought them that trip. Smile.

I was on the phone selling or traveling to make sales.....and generally burning the candle at both ends. I'd machine parts and do purchasing and engineering, draw prints, etc as time permitted. Ran a pretty lean organization wihile making a small profit.

I'd check our income and payables on a sometimes daily basis.....and was determined to make the company operate and grow on it's own profits. I really needed a set of good drill bits and some decent reamers to make better parts. Fairly cheap stuff....just a few hundred dollars. What I had worked.....but it was not the best. I waited for a few months to purchase those basic tools with profits.....rather than go into debt to get them sooner....and so it went. We were a sub S corp....so I had to pay taxes on any profits too....ouch. Hard way to grow.

What I accomplished by doing this I am sometimes not sure......but DISIPLINE is what we needed to keep the ship afloat. Later I had invented several new products to launch.....and I thought I needed to raise some capitol. The bank offered me a good line of credit.....but I did not feel good about bank debt....never did. Instead I went looking for an investor. After looking and talking to a few people that turned me down.....I found that the business had taken care of our financial needs with our profits. And that is the way I kept it for nearly 20 years. Fast forward to when I sold the company there were no taxes to pay on gains and no debt to re-pay.

Discipline is hard....but can be rewarding in the long run. I often wonder how fast I may have grown the business on borrowed money.....or how quickly things could have gone sour with lots of borrowed money. I suppose every one has a different way of doing things....and a different comfort zone. I learned mine over time.

The end.

 

[Bill]

Old guys like me like to tell stories. Here is one about saving and budgets.

When I went into my business......I was bound and determined to not borrow any money....other than my already invested seed money.....and to make the business pay it's own way. I had a good product and a good plan with decent margins....I just needed time for the plan to evolve. I had invested in good computer software and had an employee that could run the office and that program. She would also do some assembly and shipping, and whatever it took to keep things humming along. As an incentive for her to come to work for me....I told her that if we were still in business after one year.....I would send her and her husband on a fly-in fishing trip to Canada. I bought them that trip. Smile.

I was on the phone selling or traveling to make sales.....and generally burning the candle at both ends. I'd machine parts and do purchasing and engineering, draw prints, etc as time permitted. Ran a pretty lean organization wihile making a small profit.

I'd check our income and payables on a sometimes daily basis.....and was determined to make the company operate and grow on it's own profits. I really needed a set of good drill bits and some decent reamers to make better parts. Fairly cheap stuff....just a few hundred dollars. What I had worked.....but it was not the best. I waited for a few months to purchase those basic tools with profits.....rather than go into debt to get them sooner....and so it went. We were a sub S corp....so I had to pay taxes on any profits too....ouch. Hard way to grow.

What I accomplished by doing this I am sometimes not sure......but DISIPLINE is what we needed to keep the ship afloat. Later I had invented several new products to launch.....and I thought I needed to raise some capitol. The bank offered me a good line of credit.....but I did not feel good about bank debt....never did. Instead I went looking for an investor. After looking and talking to a few people that turned me down.....I found that the business had taken care of our financial needs with our profits. And that is the way I kept it for nearly 20 years. Fast forward to when I sold the company there were no taxes to pay on gains and no debt to re-pay.

Discipline is hard....but can be rewarding in the long run. I often wonder how fast I may have grown the business on borrowed money.....or how quickly things could have gone sour with lots of borrowed money. I suppose every one has a different way of doing things....and a different comfort zone. I learned mine over time.

The end.

S corp here also, absolutely stinks at tax time but not in the end game...
But there is someone out there who will point at you say he didn't pay taxes when he made all that $. Not realizing or caring that you paid them along the way. You non tax paying fat cat!!!

Same people cry that the top earners don't pay enough taxes, when the top earners look like fat cats because they are paying the taxes on their small business and not actually taking that $ home. and they don't care to realize small business's employee people.

Don't get me started

 

[Tree Spud]

LLC here. Have avoided S-Corp because of the complications. We started a manufacturing firm from scratch, engineered process equipment, and have had to build the infrastructure for that. Over the past 3 years our revenues and margins have been hammered pretty good. During Covid, went 6 months without taking an owners draw (the way we pay ourselves).

Was raised to be very frugal, save, and reduce debt. That has paid off discipline wise with the business as we have survived some down times.

When you own a small business, you are the last one to get paid. Suppliers, employees, mortgage, line of credit, benefits, etc. all get paid first. Then the taxes ... You either take money out of the business, which limits investment into the business (inventory, new employees, tooling, etc.), or it comes out of your pocket personally.

We have been very blessed in life but there was a price to get there. Did not take a vacation for first 12 years when we started the business. Own our vehicles for 8-10 years and pay cash when we buy one. Go out to eat only 1-2 times/month. Mortgages are all paid off and haven't taken a loan out to buy anything in 15 years.

My Dad drilled into me that it's not what you make it's what you keep. There are people who make $50k and live like they make $150k, and there are those that make $150k and live like they make $50k.

Some people will never get it.

 

[The Fishman]

It's not what you make it's what you keep.

This is what I have tried to teach my teenage kids. If you make a million dollars a year and spend $1.1 million a year, you are poor.

 

[Foggy47]

LLC here. Have avoided S-Corp because of the complications. We started a manufacturing firm from scratch, engineered process equipment, and have had to build the infrastructure for that. Over the past 3 years our revenues and margins have been hammered pretty good. During Covid, went 6 months without taking an owners draw (the way we pay ourselves).

Was raised to be very frugal, save, and reduce debt. That has paid off discipline wise with the business as we have survived some down times.

When you own a small business, you are the last one to get paid. Suppliers, employees, mortgage, line of credit, benefits, etc. all get paid first. Then the taxes ... You either take money out of the business, which limits investment into the business (inventory, new employees, tooling, etc.), or it comes out of your pocket personally.

We have been very blessed in life but there was a price to get there. Did not take a vacation for first 12 years when we started the business. Own our vehicles for 8-10 years and pay cash when we buy one. Go out to eat only 1-2 times/month. Mortgages are all paid off and haven't taken a loan out to buy anything in 15 years.

My Dad drilled into me that it's not what you make it's what you keep. There are people who make $50k and live like they make $150k, and there are those that make $150k and live like they make $50k.

Some people will never get it.

......

This is what I have tried to teach my teenage kids. If you make a million dollars a year and spend $1.1 million a year, you are poor.

.....and a dumb ass.

 

[jsasker007]

We are seeing which businesses are running lean and still going versus who assumed times would always be good and spend like the money will always keep pouring in. Seeing a lot of places treating customers very poorly because they have plenty of work. Some day those companies/businesses might wish they wouldn't have turned so many customers away. Not all years are going to be great and profitable. Very few can grasp money management and saving. I don't know how there's so many people running around like they have money to burn and always on vacation and buying new stuff all the time. I think that careless lifestyle will catch up to them and then they'll blame something else other than their own choices that put them there. We're living in a time where people take out loans and expect them to be forgiven or someone else picks up the tab=JUST PLAIN STUPID. jmho

 

[b116757]

Buffet sitting on the largest cash reserves ever looks to be waiting for the other shoe to drop and start buying up the fire sale companies that are on the way from poor managment many facing commercial variable rate loans coming due at the higher rates. Should be interesting

 

[Bowsnbucks]

.or keep the duration relatively short.

Yes. We invest in bond funds - don't want the hassle of living on a computer & trying to keep up with minute-to-minute market moves. Life to live ...... fun to be had !!

 

[Bowsnbucks]

We are seeing which businesses are running lean and still going versus who assumed times would always be good and spend like the money will always keep pouring in. Seeing a lot of places treating customers very poorly because they have plenty of work. Some day those companies/businesses might wish they wouldn't have turned so many customers away. Not all years are going to be great and profitable. Very few can grasp money management and saving. I don't know how there's so many people running around like they have money to burn and always on vacation and buying new stuff all the time. I think that careless lifestyle will catch up to them and then they'll blame something else other than their own choices that put them there.

Agreed. Wife and I have saved & invested big-time for decades. But since we paid into SS for our entire careers, we expect to get our monthly checks like we - and millions of others - were promised. But you're right - we each steer our own ships. I've never understood any business that treats customers badly. Bad PR.

 

[SD51555]

I got lucky on GNRC when they reported earnings. I was prepared to throw another wad of fake money down the hole to try to salvage this position. Ended up not needing too. I decided to part ways with it this morning. I bought it at $118, sold it at $96. I almost broke even with the options income, but still took a small loss. Time to move on. CVX went on sale this week. KMI is on sale this week. EPD is on sale this week.