Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Bill]

I've never been able to make a case for any kind of bonds in retirement except for those who don't sleep well with volatility. I can't really find many periods of any length where the mix of cash, bonds, and stocks outperform just a mix of cash and stocks. Having said that, we are in weird financial times these days...

There was a time when you could use tax free municipal bonds to cover your bills in retirement while still having other funds in the market. I haven't seen rates good enough to do that since the fed started tanking rates to prop up Obama.

Now that they are raising rates to end Joe's mess we may get back to those return rates sometime. I had quite few muni's paying 6+% with a guaranteed return of my loan at the terms end. Lots of municipalities payed them off early when rates dropped, so that strategy ended.

 

[yoderjac]

There was a time when you could use tax free municipal bonds to cover your bills in retirement while still having other funds in the market. I haven't seen rates good enough to do that since the fed started tanking rates to prop up Obama.

Now that they are raising rates to end Joe's mess we may get back to those return rates sometime. I had quite few muni's paying 6+% with a guaranteed return of my loan at the terms end. Lots of municipalities payed them off early when rates dropped, so that strategy ended.

You could be right going forward. I did some historical gaming. I ran portfolios of a mix of cash, bonds, and the broad market against just cash and the broad market. I did not look at tax consequences of things like muni bonds in the portfolios.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

I've never been able to make a case for any kind of bonds in retirement except for those who don't sleep well with volatility. I can't really find many periods of any length where the mix of cash, bonds, and stocks outperform just a mix of cash and stocks. Having said that, we are in weird financial times these days...

If you’re saying cash>ibonds right now, I’d love to hear why. As I understand it, ibonds will never lose value unless we have deflation. So I’ll take my 9+% growth and risk losing value with deflation to the maximum amount the govt lets me over having cash sit and lose value.

 

[rocksnstumps]

For sure get some ibonds with the limited amount they let u buy each yr. $10k for individuals and $20k for married but that still leaves a lot of other $$ to find a home for those not wanting to be 90-100% stocks and have been plugging away with 20-30 yrs in IRA or 401k. Kinda like plantn trees, should have been doing the ibond thing 10 yrs ago to have any basis worth much. Course 10 yrs ago until the last couple yrs stocks were kicking it compared to ibonds. Would be nice if ibond max limit/yr. gets raised.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

For sure get some ibonds with the limited amount they let u buy each yr. $10k for individuals and $20k for married but that still leaves a lot of other $$ to find a home for those not wanting to be 90-100% stocks and have been plugging away with 20-30 yrs in IRA or 401k. Kinda like plantn trees, should have been doing the ibond thing 10 yrs ago to have any basis worth much. Course 10 yrs ago until the last couple yrs stocks were kicking it compared to ibonds. Would be nice if ibond max limit/yr. gets raised.

You can also get $5k/year on tax returns in the form of paper bonds. Starting last year I have made sure I’m $5k overpaid on fed taxes so I can get $5k in paper ibonds. So with that a married couple can be at $25k/year in ibonds.

My dad is retired on a good union pension and has never invested a dime in his life. Just sits on cash. He lives well below his means but with this crazy inflation im going to start making him invest. At a bare minimum start an IRA to help a little with taxes and buy ibonds until the crazy inflation ends.

 

[rocksnstumps]

Believe for an IRA contribution you need earned income. Pensions, dividends, capital gains and such are not earned income so would need some other way to fund IRA.

 

[rocksnstumps]

Btw ibonds are adjusting to 6.48% Nov 1st.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

Btw ibonds are adjusting to 6.48% Nov 1st.

Bummer.

 

[yoderjac]

If you’re saying cash>ibonds right now, I’d love to hear why. As I understand it, ibonds will never lose value unless we have deflation. So I’ll take my 9+% growth and risk losing value with deflation to the maximum amount the govt lets me over having cash sit and lose value.

The only thing I'm saying is that I ran some historical portfolio games and over any period more than a few years, a portfolio of cash and stocks (broad market) beat a portfolio of cash, bonds, and stocks. These were generic portfolios using indexes, not trying to time or pick specific stock or bonds. I'm not speaking to ibonds in particular or saying anything with respect to the current market.

 

[SD51555]

The pants party in energy earnings rolls on. The diesel shortage hadn't even started by the end of Q3, and these guys clobbered their expectations. Q4 could be a doozy.

 

[SD51555]

Interesting development in the current thing. NATO member Turkey is forming a gas partnership with Russia and will serve as a hub to bring gas into Europe from the south instead of coming from the north. This marks the first real development that could restore energy in Europe. It's getting late though. China has already begun picking at the bones of german industry.

Putin says Turkish gas hub can easily be set up, reveals pipeline damage details

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday said a natural gas hub could be set up in Turkey fairly quickly and predicted many customers in Europe would want to sign contracts.

www.reuters.com

U.S. Slams Turkey-Russia Deal to Form a Natural Gas Hub

The U.S. expressed its opposition to the agreement announced by Turkey for the creation of a natural gas hub in cooperation with Russia.

greekreporter.com

The day that EUROPE DIED - BASF announces "permanent" output reductions that will set off catastrophic supply chain collapse for the western world

Over a year ago, I began publicly warning the world about the global famine implications of the loss of natural gas supplies for Europe. Through the Haber chemical process, natural gas is combined with atmospheric nitrogen (N2) to create ammonia (NH3), the key molecule for creating nitrogen-based fe

www.naturalnews.com

 

[bwoods11]

Notice how gas, fertilizer, power are a hot commodity in tough times and companies like Facebook is getting crushed . That’s always been my theory … buy stocks in companies people need to use !!

I’d classify an IPhone in the “need” category as well .

 

[SD51555]

Notice how gas, fertilizer, power are a hot commodity in tough times and companies like Facebook is getting crushed . That’s always been my theory … buy stocks in companies people need to use !!

I’d classify an IPhone in the “need” category as well .

Throw chips in there too. Ford, GM, Deere, and Cat showed us how useless their machines are without chips. INTC has been beat into the dirt. I don't know if they're done going down, but it's enough I took a starter bite the other day.

I'm still largely half cash/half energy, but i'm slowly picking at a few things. The fed isn't done busting the everything bubble to kick off the great transfer. That's the 'you'll own nothing' part of the great reset.

There's a fed announcement coming today. I don't know if today is a hike announcement or just lizard commentary to give the market something to trade.

 

[Tree Spud]

The Fed raised the prime rate by another 0.75 basis points today. This will slow down things.

 

[Telemark]

Energy is too volatile for me, and the news can come out of anywhere. I've been adding to TBT, UUP, and GLD. I will probably start selling some TBT soon. NEM is way down, but it's a small position. I'm getting ready to buy puts on IWM and SPY.

 

[SD51555]

Energy is too volatile for me, and the news can come out of anywhere. I've been adding to TBT, UUP, and GLD. I will probably start selling some TBT soon. NEM is way down, but it's a small position. I'm getting ready to buy puts on IWM and SPY.

Yeah, I'm not 100% certain on energy. In the current environment, it's rock solid, but we also seem to be one phantom nudge away from a black swan event.

 

[Angus 1895]

GGE!

higher higher higher!

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Who would have ever guessed this guy couldn’t have been trusted

 

[Tree Spud]

Who would have ever guessed this guy couldn’t have been trusted
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Crypto .... the 70's penny stock of the 2020's.

 

[SD51555]

It's been a wild few days. I inched into the market a little more. Still 35% cash, but that's come down from last week. Added some HBI (small amount, not convinced there yet), more INTC, and doubled up on NEM.

All signs point to catastrophe for HBI given how high their dividend yield is. Apparently the dividend is well covered. If they can get back some optimistic shareholders and drive that p/e from 5 to 10, I'd be a happy camper. Fingers crossed this is the bottom for all three of these stocks. They don't need to go up, I just need them to not crash.