Help with a best case MN scenario.

[Brush Creek]

You number guys out there help with this one. This winter in MN has been pretty easy on the deer. Let's assume it continues until spring and we get a similar winter next year. How will the herd numbers look this fall 2015 and next fall 2016? Let's assume another conservative deer season from the DNR in MN this year, but options for next year.

Then give us the numbers expected for each zone. I don't know the numbers but something like this....Zone 2 with 200,000 deer on Dec 1. On May 25th there will be 190,000 deer. 100,000 pregnant does averaging 1 fawn alive in September. September 15th population, 100,000 fawns, 150,0000 does, 20,000 2.5 bucks and over and 20,000 1.5 bucks. Or something like that.

Then take the 2015 season into consideration and do it again.

How many deer could there be in two years if things went well???? Could the population grow by 50%.

 

[bwoods11]

I think we will see numbers go up in most zones. That being said the numbers are so low in NE it will take quite awhile.

 

[sandbur]

I read an article in D and DH where north central Mn. does averaged about 1.5 fawns per doe. this was a study in zone 1 and also had figures on younger does. doe fawns really did not get bred in that area-probably was the Remer area.

 

[SD51555]

I think 50% could be possible in a couple years, but not to the extent you're hoping for. I think your base number is high. I also think you're on the optimistic side of fawn recruitment. In places with bad predator populations, fawn recruitment can fall below 25% (I'm winging that number a bit). Even if every doe had twins, you'd likely end up with 1/2 fawn per doe given the wolf situation in the north woods. The percentage growth of 50% could be there in a couple years, but off a much smaller starting number.

My fear is that if we have a good fawn recruitment in a given area and the wolves stay out for a while, the woods will have more small and dumb fawns and no increase in mature deer. There has to be two years cease fire before these numbers can stick in my opinion. If the 2015 class can make it big and past 1.5 years without getting shot to smithereens, gobbled up by wolves, or frozen solid, we'll have something.

 

[Greta&Gus]

http://dnr.wi.gov/news/Weekly/article/?id=2467
http://dnr.wi.gov/topic/wildlifehabitat/research/buckMortalityStudy.html
http://www.outdoorlife.com/blogs/newshound/2014/01/new-wisconsin-study-reveals-data-deer-mortality

Here are some links to the Wisconsin study that was done on deer mortality. It seems to me that if we can get deer past the first year of their life they are far more likely to survive for the long haul from both predators and hunters. With our current situation I don't think we should expect any major changes in the population for another 2 to 3 years.

 

[bowhunternw]

Deer numbers will respond fairly quick, but in the long haul we have lost a lot of habitat in the last 5 years. I don't think MN can grow as many deer as it could 10 years ago.

 

[West Branch]

I think we will see numbers go up in most zones. That being said the numbers are so low in NE it will take quite awhile.

Yup, and "hotspots" will probably get worse. People near the limited amounts of farmland or else near lake cabins will probably have populations grow by 50% in 2 years, while they grow much slower in worse habitat 5-10 miles away. When someone complains about deer numbers there are always folks that say there are tons of deer by my cabin on Lake Vermillion, hunters are just so lazy these days.

 

[West Branch]

If we lay off does for another year on our farm and have a below average winter next year I think our local population should rebound pretty good. I don't know about 50% in two years though, but three maybe. I don't have much hope for the whole permit area let alone the whole state.

 

[foggy]

I can think of several suburban areas where the deer numbers are problematic. Estpecially around golf courses and wooded lake / swamp areas in suburban settings. Many of the folks living there think we have too many deer everywhere. Lots of deer / vehicle crashes and deer are eating peoples bushes and flowers. I can see the browse lines in some of these areas around the lakes. Most of these areas are not hunt-able.

If you go 5 or 10 miles away......there may be few deer in those areas. Still....the public perception is that there are too many deer and something should be done. They can see the over-population problem (to them) everyday.

We may need to address this more often......so these folks understand the issues in other areas. i.e.: "Don't be fooled by suburban deer numbers........."

 

[sandbur]

I can think of several suburban areas where the deer numbers are problematic. Estpecially around golf courses and wooded lake / swamp areas in suburban settings. Many of the folks living there think we have too many deer everywhere. Lots of deer / vehicle crashes and deer are eating peoples bushes and flowers. I can see the browse lines in some of these areas around the lakes. Most of these areas are not hunt-able.

If you go 5 or 10 miles away......there may be few deer in those areas. Still....the public perception is that there are too many deer and something should be done. They can see the over-population problem (to them) everyday.

We may need to address this more often......so these folks understand the issues in other areas. i.e.: "Don't be fooled by suburban deer numbers........."

How many of those lake people also feed the deer during the winter, but then complain about browsing and too many deer?

 

[foggy]

How many of those lake people also feed the deer during the winter, but then complain about browsing and too many deer?

I'm sure quite a few do. Don't shoot the messenger. I was just saying. ;)

 

[bat man]

We have a nuclear and coal plant close to me that allows only bowhunting every other year. The coal side is 4,500 acres and the nuclear plant owns a bunch more on the other side of the river, then Montissippi park is right next to that. No guns and very limited hunting.

Liberal regulations have decimated the herd even in areas like this. Pre season I could easily count 50+ deer in the ag fields 10 years ago. Last couple years 80% percent of the same drive will show zero Deer.

You better have something special in MN if we don't see some major changes in trigger control by the DNR.