Howboutthemdawgs
5 year old buck +
Yeah I’m no mathematician but that doesn’t seem like a sustainable recipe to me.
Wild Turkey population is tanking across most of its range
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I dont think what happened 40 years ago is relative. If you just look at rhe numbers 40 years ago, pph was at 5 and harvest was at 50. Now pph is at around 2 pph or higher and KY just set a record or near record harvest. AR likely to break 10,000 for the state harvest and we think things are looking up
BenA
5 year old buck +
But, the trend from 40 years ago until now is telling. I'd hate to see it continue its downward decline over time. I don't think there's any one answer for the reason of the decline.I dont think what happened 40 years ago is relative. If you just look at rhe numbers 40 years ago, pph was at 5 and harvest was at 50. Now pph is at around 2 pph or higher and KY just set a record or near record harvest. AR likely to break 10,000 for the state harvest and we think things are looking up
Yes, there are multiple reasons for the decline in pph. But the good news, for whatever reason - pph numbers seem to be climbing across the south in general. KY’s pph numbers in 2023 are indicative of an increasing population. AR has seen the same thing - in spite of absolutely horrible nesting weather and a severe summer drought - yet we are up to nearly 2.5 pph - the highest in almost 15 years. Of course, our g&f is taking credit by claiming it is the season structure - finally after 15 years a positive affect. We also experience our worst pph numbers for a number of consecutive years with the same season structure.
356
5 year old buck +
The week 1 harvest did not include any tags filled by me, although I only went out one time. State wide numbers were surprisingly good. Opening day was overcast, but not raining, over most of the state. Our NW Missouri county was 5th lowest (out of 114) in the state, which is about where we land in deer harvest as well. I head a couple of shots on opening day, and a hen has been looking for nesting areas on our property.
Missouri Harvest: April 21-28, 2025
Adult Gobblers: 27986
Juvenille Gobblers: 4733
Bearded Hens: 254
Total: 32973
Missouri Harvest: April 21-28, 2025
Adult Gobblers: 27986
Juvenille Gobblers: 4733
Bearded Hens: 254
Total: 32973
BenA
5 year old buck +
I was listening to a podcast with the head of turkey management for Kentucky, Zak Danks. Disease and health in coordination with the state vet was one of the things they are studying right now along with other things spurred on by public complaints of lower numbers. They were talking about the cicada hatches and how it shows a definite correlation with turkey populations because of the high numbers seen after in regards to hen condition, poult production, nest success, re-nesting, harvest numbers, etc. They said it indicated turkeys were limited due to insects, because ideally, you would not want to see a single factor like that show such drastic influences. Agriculture, forestry, development practices, and other landscape wide, insect affecting practices can affect turkey numbers. Another thing he talked about was trapping of predators was encouraged, but you have to realize the scale, spatially and temporally, over years of intensive effort to maybe document a success, and that's if you have the habitat in place.
I had read they expected increase pph with the cicada hatch. We didnt have cicada’s, but we had a crop of grasshoppers like nothing I had seen. Kansas had a great hatch last year, also - but no cicada hatch. AR hatch has been on an upward trend for the last three years.
I have noticed a number of states - including AR, KY, and MO - are changing the way they conduct poult surveys, using online input from private citizen observations. They are comparing the old collection method with the new collection method - and typically the new method shows a higher number than the old method.
I worry that the numbers are factual using the new method - and I will use myself as an example. For years I participated in the old pencil and paper surveys. If I missed reporting a turkey, I dont remember it. Now, I am not “tasked” with doing a poult survey. I find myself online recording hens and poults - but less likely to record single hens or gobblers. I do fairly well at the start of the survey period - not as well towards the end.
Conversely, during the old pencil and paper survey - the number of survey participants kept dropping every year to the point there was concern there wasnt enough data.
Our state is planning on going to a split zone with the southern half of the state opening and closing earlier than the northern half due to the large difference in green up and perception of when the gobblers are most active.
I dont see this as a good thing at all - generating an influx of hunters to the southern part of the state the first week and an influx of southern hunters to the northern part of the state the last week of season
What would be your thoughts on this? I know TN has now gone to different opening dates for some counties
I dont see this as a good thing at all - generating an influx of hunters to the southern part of the state the first week and an influx of southern hunters to the northern part of the state the last week of season
What would be your thoughts on this? I know TN has now gone to different opening dates for some counties
BenA
5 year old buck +
Will there still be a state limit on harvests, or will each zone have different limits? If you can still only kill the same number, regardless of zone, I'd be for it from a hunter perspective, just to hear the gobbling. It might actually limit pressure on each zone across the season timeframe. There'd be more pressure for a shorter time I would think, but there could be less pressure adjacent to nesting start if timed right.
The statewide limit will be the same. Me, being in the south zone, opening a week before the north zone - can imagine a theoretical swarm of north state hunters coming to my area to hunt. The north zone will be open a week longer than the south - and would probably see an influx of southern hunters during the last week - but probably not to the same extent.
I think we should just open the season a week earlier - which would be around the 14th of Apr. I would not think the second week of Apr would be too early for north AR
BenA
5 year old buck +
Do you think it would make the harvest numbers for Arkansas go up?
I would guess the harvest might go up a little. In view of the fact that the gobbler to hen ratios are lower than target levels - I dont know that we need a higher harvest. More folks in the woods means more nesting hen disturbance. A little earlier season means a little more comfortable hunting weather.
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BenA
5 year old buck +
This subject of turkey populations and perceived reasons for population size increases/decreases led me to listening to too many episodes of the Wild Turkey Science podcast with Drs. Lashley and Gulsby (with occasional guests) talk about these subjects. I was listening to some where they were talking about the literature showing where predators pointed to the reason for declines and then others where habitat abundance and quality pointed to declines. They were saying both camps (habitat vs predators) could use the same data to prove both points. One thing that stood out was when they were talking about studies with meso-predators. One study with raccoons detailed where a population was reduced by almost 90% I believe, but the very next year, rebounded to back where it was. The reason was because of the artificially inflated food available on this area. This was an urban area where they were trying to get rid of raccoons carrying rabies. The food(waste) was the reason for the bounce back. This led to the question of feeding/baiting artificially inflating predator numbers and how trapping could show a decline in predator numbers and the bounce back after. Wouldn't it be such an easy solution if we could really stop baiting/feeding? They were talking about how a $4 million study could probably answer that question, but many people wouldn't want to see that as being the answer.
Ive listened to that one. There are people in this thread that wouldn’t want to see that being the answer.
I agree on most points with what those guys said. Pretty much right off - they confirmed the preponderance of research - predation was the number one direct cause limiting poult recruitment. I also think most folks realize it is not one thing and besides predation, habitat is a big component.
I wouldnt spend thousands of dollars every year trying to improve my habitat if I didnt think it had a positive influence on my turkey population. To be honest, I dont believe all my efforts growing nwsg has helped turkeys one single bit. I have never seen a turkey in “my” nwsg - in 20 years. I have seen them walking through on my trails - but not actually in the grass. They still prefer the nwsg that was there before I came - in open cedars that was naturally occurring. I cant realistically duplicate that habitat without a tremendous expense.
I do see turkeys using my food plots - especially wheat and clover. I dont see turkeys using my tsi areas. I trap - but trapping is a very small component and expense in my total management effort on my land. I also thermal hunt for predators and it is a very effect form of removal. We have killed numbers in the mid twenties of coons, possums, and skunks in one evening. I have never trapped that many at one time.
I also believe every property is different. Without spending an obscene amount of money on my mostly forested land - I am pretty much at the top of the plateau when it comes to habitat improvement. I know my land is lacking when it comes to turkeys - it is mediocre habitat. Back in the 1980’s when predator densities were low, my land had turkeys, and quail, and rabbits - because nests had a chance of escaping a greatly reduced amount of predators. Now, with a very heavy predator load - habitat like mine is lacking turkeys in most areas - quail and rabbits, too.
We will never see widespread predator numbers as low as they were back in the 70’s and 80’s. That means the habitat needs to be better than it was in the 70’s and 80’s. My land is improved since that time - but a lot is worse.
Something that kind of surprises me about these guys is the things that they are just recently discovering while digging through all the research for these podcasts - and seem so naive about so many things. They seemed shocked to read that you could remove 90% of the coons and they would be back at the same density every year. If this was not true, the fur market would not have been able to sustain itself back in the 70’s and the 80’s. Conservation be damned, tens of thousands of us commercial trappers would have caught the last coon if we could have. Fur-bearers were pursued with a vengeance. I lived in a tent for months on end chasing fur all over north LA and south AR. I would run traps all morning, skin all afternoon, get the coon dog and head out at night - and do it all over again the next day. If you were not alive and commercial trapping back in those days - you can not even imagine the competition and effort going in to killing every coon, possum, skunk, coyote, bobcat, etc. i was walking in three miles one way in steep rugged Ouachita mountain terrain- a six mile loop up and down mountains - carrying a pack basket and supplies - and evidence of previous trappers was everywhere I went. You could not find virgin territory for the year after the first month of season. By the end of season, a coon track was difficult to find - yet next year, there were just as many as there were the year before. These two guys acted like they were shocked to find that out. Tens of thousands of trappers would know that - their livelihood depended on it.
They acted like it was news to them that in some areas with coyotes, the predation on certain species is less because the couotes displace more effective predators. In areas of the prairie pothole regions, coyotes have displaced red foxes. Red foxes are more effective waterfowl nest predators than coyotes. That has been known for a long time.
I thought the example of the siberian lynx, marten, and genet cat was not an applicable comparison of what we see here with our mesopredators. A lot of those far north predators are well known to be very cyclic, based upon their prey species. Our local meso predators, not so much.
I think anyone who has spent much time in the outdoors who has an ounce of common sense - understands trapping is an every year management tool. Just like managing nwsg or planting food plots. You dont do it once and think it is going to last forever. It always amazes me in a lot of these podcasts where the presenters act like that is some great discovery. My eight year old grand daughter knows that. Even in the 70’s and 80’s - when we tried to catch and kill every coon - we couldnt do it.
Everyone’s ground is different. On my home ground - I concentrate on trapping in the spring - in fact, I dont do it at other times - but we do thermal hunt whenever the opportunity arises. I try to trap once in mar, once in may, and once in jun. I set about two or three dozen traps and run them three or four days each time and remove 45 to 60 coons and several skunks and possums off 350 acres. After I quit in june, it may be a couple of months when I start regularly getting coon pics again. Early fall before they are back to normal numbers. I like trapping, it is inexpensive, and I have a great excuse to get out of the house for an hour and a half every morn. But I also understand it may be very difficult to do for a landowner who does not live on the property.
My total trapping effort for the year probably does not take any more time than putting in my ten acre dove field - and surely less money invested.
Does it help? I have know idea, but I know it doesnt hurt. I started this six or seven years ago and had no turkeys before then - and now I have some turkeys - as does my next door neighbor. The other folks around me do not have any to speak of. Coincidental, maybe. But at this point, I am afraid not to - and fortunately it is cheap and enjoyable. I know I have a lot fewer coons than I did have.
The data is general consistent that predators are the number one direct cause for poor nest success - the data is very inconsistent as to whether trapping and removal of predators is a successful method to improve poult recruitment. I believe that - every area is different and everyone’s effort will be different. Tall timbers plantation, the number one quail research facility in the country, believes predator removal may be necessary in some cases to grow quail - in spite of the best habitat possible. They also developed a predator index and for quail recruitment, the index showed 30% scent post visited by nest predators was the break over point - more than that the population did not increase or declined - less than that, generally initiated an increase in quail numbers. The difference between a 35% and 25% predator visitation rate may have only been the removal of a couple of predators. It doesnt require all of them gone. This was on some of the best quail habitat in the country.
Prey species abundance also makes a big difference. I read all the time on this forum about the fruit tree growers having to screen the tree trunks to prevent damage by voles, mice, rabbits, etc. I have never screened a tree trunk and never seen the first bark damage (other than deer). That is because we have very few rats, mice, voles, etc. We dont have a prey base for meso predators like many areas. We have few foxes and few coyotes. So yes, every piece of ground is different - and every land manager is different. Tall timbers even does supplemental feeding for their cotton rats to increase body mass index and fecundity - to steer more predation to cotton rats and away from quail.
In my opinion and financial situation, the habitat on my land is about maxed out. I have what I consider mediocre turkey habitat.
I did not have turkeys seven years ago when I started my spring time trapping. I have some turkeys now - but it is a fragile population and the density is not high. We generally kill one a year. My 1200 cattle ranching neighbor also has turkeys, where he didnt seven years ago. I dont know of other landowners in the area who consistently have turkeys. While none of them trap - except for hogs - neither do they spend one dime for turkey habitat improvement.
BenA
5 year old buck +
My take away from that podcast was stopping baiting could be the easiest way to control mesopredators. It's easier to do that than it is to trap or do habitat work. They talked about top-down vs bottom-up mesopredator control and how both have been shown to be effective. Top-down control is removing the predators and bottom up is limiting the resources of the predators. Trapping is top-down management. Stopping baiting would be bottom-up management. Why not see if the easier method could be just as effective at controlling mesopredator numbers? Heck, do both. Trap and remove baiting.
Howboutthemdawgs
5 year old buck +
It would be easier to mandate everyone do 1000 hours of habitat work a year than to stop baiting. The bulk of hunters around me would form a mutiny if they couldn’t sit next to a cornpile for deer…and probably turkeys too. They would literally be lost if they had to actually show some woodsmanship.
Easier on an effort scale yes, impossible on a social scale.
Easier on an effort scale yes, impossible on a social scale.
BenA
5 year old buck +
If baiting was illegal, I would welcome the use of thermal drones by game and fish agencies to survey for bait sites at night around me.