Wild Turkey population is tanking across most of its range

Once had a hen explode out of the brush right in front of me. Was trying to spray invasive crap in the spring. Found her nest nearby with 18 eggs. After that gave the area a rest for a month
 
Had a decent morning considering the weather wasn’t text book. Heard three and had one at 80. Called in 3 more Jakes which I love to see. Saw 6 hens too.
 
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With 47127 turkey harvested last spring and 3238 in the fall season, what Iowa is for whitetails, Missouri is for turkey. I have participated in the annual turkey survey for 10 years. The numbers I have counted are down roughly 50%, which is about the same as the state reports. Recruitment of poults in the first two weeks seems to be our greatest challenge, with habitat and predator issues at the top of the priority list for correcting the decline.

I personally know several land owners who are seeing strong turkey populations. On our property, numbers are very low.

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30 yards from the house this morning. Sometimes they seem so smart and sometimes they are incredibly stupid.
 
With 47127 turkey harvested last spring and 3238 in the fall season, what Iowa is for whitetails, Missouri is for turkey. I have participated in the annual turkey survey for 10 years. The numbers I have counted are down roughly 50%, which is about the same as the state reports. Recruitment of poults in the first two weeks seems to be our greatest challenge, with habitat and predator issues at the top of the priority list for correcting the decline.

I personally know several land owners who are seeing strong turkey populations. On our property, numbers are very low.

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That's disappointing, especially knowing how much time you spend trapping nest predators. Hope they rebound for you guys next year.
 
With 47127 turkey harvested last spring and 3238 in the fall season, what Iowa is for whitetails, Missouri is for turkey. I have participated in the annual turkey survey for 10 years. The numbers I have counted are down roughly 50%, which is about the same as the state reports. Recruitment of poults in the first two weeks seems to be our greatest challenge, with habitat and predator issues at the top of the priority list for correcting the decline.

I personally know several land owners who are seeing strong turkey populations. On our property, numbers are very low.

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Hopefully your war on the raccoons will start paying dividends.
 
turned on the tracker deal on onx. Walked 11 miles this weekend. Was only out of the woods for 3 hours yesterday. Heard exactly 1 bird on the ground on the neighbors property and bumped one longbeard I never knew was there. Zero strutters out in fields. Between me and what I can see of my neighbors we have some prototype land for turkeys. I’d say unequivocally the worst season I’ve ever had and I’ve been turkey hunting 29 years.
 
Kentucky's stats for poults per hen numbers compared to harvest totals.

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Look’s like it’s been a couple of banner years in Kentucky. Sorry you haven’t had success @Howboutthemdawgs
 
turned on the tracker deal on onx. Walked 11 miles this weekend. Was only out of the woods for 3 hours yesterday. Heard exactly 1 bird on the ground on the neighbors property and bumped one longbeard I never knew was there. Zero strutters out in fields. Between me and what I can see of my neighbors we have some prototype land for turkeys. I’d say unequivocally the worst season I’ve ever had and I’ve been turkey hunting 29 years.
That stinks. No strutters in the fields here this year either. Something weird is going on. Heard a few different gobbles this am but they seem content staying in the heavy cover.
 
Our hens were done breeding early than I have ever seen them - about the end of March.
 
This was a welcome surprise this evening. Opening day is Thursday, and I'm supposed to go, but I have almost zero enthusiasm for a number of reasons. (lack of seeing them in recent years and losing access to large areas we hunted, and those being the only place we DID see them)

Honestly I'm more anxious to go cut some more trees and do some more clearing. And tonight I get birds right where I want to clear. Of course now that I think about it more, that's perfect (in a "just my luck" way). The dang birds are probably roosting right where I want to be running the chainsaw and dropping trees. 🙄

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With 47127 turkey harvested last spring and 3238 in the fall season, what Iowa is for whitetails, Missouri is for turkey. I have participated in the annual turkey survey for 10 years. The numbers I have counted are down roughly 50%, which is about the same as the state reports. Recruitment of poults in the first two weeks seems to be our greatest challenge, with habitat and predator issues at the top of the priority list for correcting the decline.

I personally know several land owners who are seeing strong turkey populations. On our property, numbers are very low.

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Up in the N central area I can tell you our numbers are up the last 2 years. MDC did a trap and radio collar on my place a few years back. The only mortality I was there to whiteness in the spring was ruled domestic dog. Killed and left behind. The biggest killer "I was told" are coyotes". I with no degree think coyotes and a combination of wet cold springs are the worst enemy.
 
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Look’s like it’s been a couple of banner years in Kentucky. Sorry you haven’t had success @Howboutthemdawgs
I’m not disputing any numbers. I’m just operating on personal experiences. Just as validation I called a neighbor this am. Pretty place, 300 acres with a good bit of pasture and he lives there full time. He said he isn’t hearing or seeing anything. Saw one longbeard walk across a field a while back. I don’t know what would cause pockets to be good or bad, but we have drawn the short end of whatever that straw is.
 
I’m not disputing any numbers. I’m just operating on personal experiences. Just as validation I called a neighbor this am. Pretty place, 300 acres with a good bit of pasture and he lives there full time. He said he isn’t hearing or seeing anything. Saw one longbeard walk across a field a while back. I don’t know what would cause pockets to be good or bad, but we have drawn the short end of whatever that straw is.
From the graph I posted earlier of the Kentucky data, it shows a trending towards higher hunter harvests, but also a trending to lower poult production. which would mean less turkeys. I'm seeing the same as you and my farmer's helper was telling me the same thing about not seeing many turkeys. I have TONS of good nesting habitat and decent brood rearing habitat. I have some good roosting sites as well as loafing areas. I get very few nest predators on camera, certainly less than areas where I have hunted with great turkey populations. One thing I do see a good bit of is aerial predators. I don't know if there has been a study on those affecting turkey populations or not.
 
I’m not disputing any numbers. I’m just operating on personal experiences. Just as validation I called a neighbor this am. Pretty place, 300 acres with a good bit of pasture and he lives there full time. He said he isn’t hearing or seeing anything. Saw one longbeard walk across a field a while back. I don’t know what would cause pockets to be good or bad, but we have drawn the short end of whatever that straw is.
I’m not saying this applies to you, but anymore, pasture may be good for hunting turkeys but likely not good for growing them. People still remember a time when pastures weren’t dominated by exotic grasses. This land cover was good for turkeys. It’s not anymore.
 
Most states would like to have a 2.3 pph statewide number. This is 2023. I have heard - but can not confirm - 2024 as good or better

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The rural county I live in averages around 50 turkeys harvested per year. It is mostly forest and pasture. By far, the biggest town in the county is about 5000 people. Most of “average” turkey counties in AR show a harvest of 100 to 200. The good counties 200-300. The county I live in has always been this low - to drive through it, you would think at least decent turkey country

I have nwsg fields, bottomlands, upland hardwood, cedar thickets, tsi areas - and below is what my hens want to nest in. Steep hillside going down to the bottoms. Rough, eroded - mix of cedar and nwsg. Costly and labor intensive to create and maintain this type habitat. More tree cover than savannah.

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Most states would like to have a 2.3 pph statewide number. This is 2023. I have heard - but can not confirm - 2024 as good or better

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From that chart comparing to the chart I posted previously, Kentucky is at half the poult production it was 40 years ago and continuing to decline.
 
From that chart comparing to the chart I posted previously, Kentucky is at half the poult production it was 40 years ago and continuing to decline.
Same with AR and probably every state that had a turkey. 40 years ago, AR had pph numbers around 5, $25 coons and $100 bobcats - that is the equivalent of $75 coons and $300 for southern cats - if that were still the case, there would be plenty of turkeys, quail, and rabbits even in mediocre habitat - my opinion of course. Me, and half the other males in the county would be trapping during the day and coon hunting at night like we used to. No, 25 cent coons and $25 cats aint gonna get it done

Point being - general consensus of the so called turkey biologists agree that anything above 1.8 to 2 pph is an indication of an increasing population. AR is seeing those kinds of numbers, as is KY - and we are seeing anecdotal increases in turkey population along with an actual increase in harvest.

But, I know plenty of areas, not far from my place still with no turkeys. If there were absolutely no turkeys, or very few, it can take some time to recognize an increase. One turkey in a square mile increasing to two turkeys per square mile is a 100% increase in population - but it still isnt very many turkeys. We have a lot of ground like that.

KY is not anything like AR though when it comes to harvest numbers. We went from a harvest of 20,000 in 2002 to a low of near 7000 in 2017 or so. KY initiates a five year study when they go from harvest of 35,000 to 25,000. It looks like they are back up to a near record harvest.
 
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