Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Telemark]

When is the best time to get/ hire someone to help figure out this tax stuff as well as inheritance thing? My parents have been slowing passing on money as Xmas gifts to each of the kids. My in-laws however might die with a lot of money to their name. How do you talk to parents/ in-laws about that sort of thing

Summer is when they have the most capacity.

As far as your in-laws, that's a very individual issue. Without knowing anything about them and your relationship with them, it would be difficult to speculate. I might start by telling them you are trying planning your estate and would like some advice. Keep it cool and vague. Don't pry.

 

[SD51555]

I was pondering social security benefits and how they've held up with certain necessities of life. So I went back to 1970 and tried pulling some info.
$150 - Average social security benefit in 1970. 2026 it's $2,071, an increase of about 1,381%.

$17,000 - Average home price in 1970. 2026, it's $410,000, an increase of 2400%.

$6,186 - Avg annual income 1970. 2026, it's $63,795, an increase of 1,031%

Couldn't find good data on farmland.

Silver +4,800%

S&P 500 +9,600%

Gold +14,000%

I had to double check my math in excel. If we had invested the social security fund in gold, we could be paying an average benefit of $21,000/month at these gold prices. Had it been silver, it could be $7,200/month. The cost of a home as a percentage of income is 232% higher than in 1970.

 

[Turkish]

I was pondering social security benefits and how they've held up with certain necessities of life. So I went back to 1970 and tried pulling some info.
$150 - Average social security benefit in 1970. 2026 it's $2,071, an increase of about 1,381%.

$17,000 - Average home price in 1970. 2026, it's $410,000, an increase of 2400%.

$6,186 - Avg annual income 1970. 2026, it's $63,795, an increase of 1,031%

Couldn't find good data on farmland.

Silver +4,800%

S&P 500 +9,600%

Gold +14,000%

I had to double check my math in excel. If we had invested the social security fund in gold, we could be paying an average benefit of $21,000/month at these gold prices. Had it been silver, it could be $7,200/month. The cost of a home as a percentage of income is 232% higher than in 1970.

Honestly, I’m surprised to see the correlation to wages. Seems like it might actually be tracking what it’s supposed to track.

 

[homerj]

I was pondering social security benefits and how they've held up with certain necessities of life. So I went back to 1970 and tried pulling some info.
$150 - Average social security benefit in 1970. 2026 it's $2,071, an increase of about 1,381%.

$17,000 - Average home price in 1970. 2026, it's $410,000, an increase of 2400%.

$6,186 - Avg annual income 1970. 2026, it's $63,795, an increase of 1,031%

Couldn't find good data on farmland.

Silver +4,800%

S&P 500 +9,600%

Gold +14,000%

I had to double check my math in excel. If we had invested the social security fund in gold, we could be paying an average benefit of $21,000/month at these gold prices. Had it been silver, it could be $7,200/month. The cost of a home as a percentage of income is 232% higher than in 1970.

How do you factor in a house in 1970 was 1600 sq.ft. on a 1/8th acre lot with a single phone and a single TV, compared to the 4000+ sq. ft. homes on 10 acre lots of today with refrigerators that text your food order to Trader Joes for you?

 

[Telemark]

Honestly, I’m surprised to see the correlation to wages. Seems like it might actually be tracking what it’s supposed to track.

Wage growth in terms of buying power fell off starting in 1979.

 

[Foggy47]

When is the best time to get/ hire someone to help figure out this tax stuff as well as inheritance thing? My parents have been slowing passing on money as Xmas gifts to each of the kids. My in-laws however might die with a lot of money to their name. How do you talk to parents/ in-laws about that sort of thing

Not sure what to tell you here. it's been said: A Journey of a thousand miles....begins with a single step.

I have talked to financial planners, accountants, and had some word of mouth by friends, and my wife and I both read up on some of these topics. We we had some calculations done by our accountant.....and the handwriting was on the wall. Our planner and an attorney was on-board too. It did take a bit of "hand-holding" but looking back it was no big deal. Just some paperwork and knowing the rules to abide by.

We have done gifting to our family for many years as well. But there are some limitations in doing so. Accountants and good financial planners can usually sort the B.S. from the buckwheat. That does take some trust....and trust can take some time to establish. We started with planners shortly after our retirement....and have grown to be comfortable with most ideas presented. Our's works on our behalf....and actually works to reduce his fees with some investments not costing us a penny. (tho some compensation is baked into the cake of the specialty investments....like an MLP). But places like Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, and many others have good advice to offer and follow......you just gotta look and ask a bit from people that have been there.

Better planners have not cost us much as a no-load mutual fund does.( ...however, in truth, they only take on high worth situations.) Ours has a legal department that has actually written some of these laws....they are that good. What you might call "an expert". lol

 

[Telemark]

I was pondering social security benefits and how they've held up with certain necessities of life. So I went back to 1970 and tried pulling some info.
$150 - Average social security benefit in 1970. 2026 it's $2,071, an increase of about 1,381%.

$17,000 - Average home price in 1970. 2026, it's $410,000, an increase of 2400%.

$6,186 - Avg annual income 1970. 2026, it's $63,795, an increase of 1,031%

Couldn't find good data on farmland.

Silver +4,800%

S&P 500 +9,600%

Gold +14,000%

I had to double check my math in excel. If we had invested the social security fund in gold, we could be paying an average benefit of $21,000/month at these gold prices. Had it been silver, it could be $7,200/month. The cost of a home as a percentage of income is 232% higher than in 1970.

Social Security is just a safety net to prevent abject poverty. What you are proposing is a sovereign wealth fund like what Norway has.

A better idea is to teach children about investing and budgeting and other money management skills in school. We could call the class Home Economics.

Oh wait, I took that class in high school. We sewed aprons and pillows and made spaghetti pie. So happy our schools are teaching the important stuff.

The system is built to create wage slaves. Just have a bunch of kids and raise them right. That's the greatest contribution you can make to society at this point. I figured that out too late. No kids so far. But lucky for my niece and nephew they won't have to depend on the government, if I have anything to say about it. My niece got so fed up with the woke bullcrap at her local school that she transferred to a new school that teaches a classical education and Christian ethics. She's much happier and has made a lot of new friends who share her values.

 

[Foggy47]

I was pondering social security benefits and how they've held up with certain necessities of life. So I went back to 1970 and tried pulling some info.
$150 - Average social security benefit in 1970. 2026 it's $2,071, an increase of about 1,381%.

$17,000 - Average home price in 1970. 2026, it's $410,000, an increase of 2400%.

$6,186 - Avg annual income 1970. 2026, it's $63,795, an increase of 1,031%

Couldn't find good data on farmland.

Silver +4,800%

S&P 500 +9,600%

Gold +14,000%

I had to double check my math in excel. If we had invested the social security fund in gold, we could be paying an average benefit of $21,000/month at these gold prices. Had it been silver, it could be $7,200/month. The cost of a home as a percentage of income is 232% higher than in 1970.

I think my experience here is just about spot on with your calculations SD.

I bought our first home in 1972 for $20,000. Ten percent down, 7 % mortgage for 20 years. Owned it for seven years and sold it for $60,000. Today It may be worth $400,000. +/- Two story brick home with an apartment in the basement....which paid most of the house payment at that time.

In those times in my area of southern MN....very productive, black dirt farmland sold for about $400. / acre. Today, those same acres would bring $!2,000 to $15,000 / acre depending on circumstances.......IMO.

A buy and hold on GOOD stocks could easily outpace these examples....but not many can find those good buy and hold stocks. Hard for me to imgagine why. Still, I can find many where the wheels just fell off over time. You really need to hold onto a basket of good growth stocks...and occasionally weed out those where the technology has languished or they are run by poor management, or go against the politics of the time. Not easy to find....but they are there and often household names.

 

[Foggy47]

I think my experience here is just about spot on with your calculations SD.

I bought our first home in 1972 for $20,000. Ten percent down, 7 % mortgage for 20 years. Owned it for seven years and sold it for $60,000. Today It may be worth $400,000. +/- Two story brick home with an apartment in the basement....which paid most of the house payment at that time.

In those times in my area of southern MN....very productive, black dirt farmland sold for about $400. / acre. Today, those same acres would bring $!2,000 to $15,000 / acre depending on circumstances.......IMO.

A buy and hold on GOOD stocks could easily outpace these examples....but not many can find those good buy and hold stocks. Hard for me to imgagine why. Still, I can find many where the wheels just fell off over time. You really need to hold onto a basket of good growth stocks...and occasionally weed out those where the technology has languished or they are run by poor management, or go against the politics of the time. Not easy to find....but they are there and often household names.

I can still remember buying that house for $20,000. I thought my wife was gonna flip out. We went from an $85 apartment rental to a $120 house payment.....and she had trouble sorting it out. We borrowed the down payment from her dad....who really did not have money to loan us. We paid him back in one year plus 10% interest...if memory serves.

I also remember a time when we got 20% interest income from a MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND....and good municipal bond funds were paying 14% with no state or federal taxes! (tho most of those were called later - basturds).

Been a long time since we seen the underbelly of a recession.....and we are past due. Not forecasting one.....but these things happen when least prepared and expectations are irrational.

Been said....keep some powder dry.

 

[Telemark]

Silver popped and dropped this morning, and the Nikkei is up over 1.5% already. No idea what to make of that. I'll check tomorrow morning to see how things shook out in the Asian markets. Then I'll be watching the European markets to see if there's a move to be made when I start trading at 4am EST. I'll probably need two pots of coffee tomorrow, but I hope things calm down after last week's mayhem.

 

[Brian662]

When is the best time to get/ hire someone to help figure out this tax stuff as well as inheritance thing? My parents have been slowing passing on money as Xmas gifts to each of the kids. My in-laws however might die with a lot of money to their name. How do you talk to parents/ in-laws about that sort of thing

Yesterday

 

[ruskbucks]

Im no expert by any means, but I've heard the mines are running 24/7 to try to keep up and they can't do it. I see where your going, not a bad idea hording some but I don't think the mines are to blame. Now the big banks in the U.S i do believe have alot to do with it. China also, they know something not allowing any to be exported. I read that you have to be licensed now in china to duy or sell silver. It could be simple supply and demand, but probably alot more to it.i have to wonder why silver is still over $100 ounce in China but in the U.S it dropped down to $78. I think its the banks playing games trying to cover their ass finally. Panic setting in as silver prices kept going higher. Switzerland is also stopping exporting.

 

[Telemark]

Nikkei popped and dropped, down 1.25%.
Heng Seng is down 2.6%.
Shanghai index is down 2.5%.

Silver selling off. Gold selling off.

It's a bloodbath in Asia this morning. Silver is forming an interesting pattern that is worth watching.

EDIT: Silver did a double bottom bounce and is trending up on higher lows. Definitely worth watching.

 

[Telemark]

CAC, DAX, FTSE all ripping this morning.

Silver still trending up.

SLOOOOOWWWWWW day in US markets so far.

 

[buckvelvet]

I'm never buying a yacht. I'm buying a fishing boat.

A Roth IRA with 2 million at a 5% dividend rate is 100k in cash per year, tax free. I can easily live on that with some left over to reinvest.

This is my hero post right here.

 

[BenA]

I made a huge mistake with USAR earlier. I bought in when it started going back up at 23.37. I was going in to set my stop loss, but hit the place sell order at the ASK price instead. Tough lesson. Missed out on about $2/share profit.

 

[bigboreblr]

1970 farmland 150-200 an acre
2025. 3000-4350 an acre

Might need a productivity correction. What a farmer would pay to make money in 1970 vs 2025. Make more with less.

 

[homerj]

^^^Where are buying farm land for under $4500/acre?

 

[Brian662]

10-20k/acre around here

 

[bwoods11]

^^^Where are buying farm land for under $4500/acre?

Not very often in my area … but there are farms for sale on the Dakotas, Montana for under that.

You have to consider that the income off those farms is fairly low.