Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Foggy47]

There really are not good alternatives.....IMO.

FWIW......at one point in time.....I thought I could time the markets a bit....and would be agile enough to get in and out to max my returns. And, to an extent I was able to wring a point or two of gains here and there. But all it takes is to get whip-sawed one time....and you could set yourself back a decade or more. Ask me how I know these things. grin.

I do think a guy can hedge ......maybe 10 to 20% of your portfolio.....if you think you are in tune with the markets. But I am not sure it pays.....as if you do "win"....you'r likely to get braver and braver until at some point "the market" gives you a lesson. My 2 cents.


LOL....I feel like that old duffer in the movie Wall Street.....giving advice.....and later packing up his desk as he was not churning enough stock to let the "house" make a profit. grin. (Hal Holbrook?? ).

 

[Bill]

FWIW......at one point in time.....I thought I could time the markets a bit....and would be agile enough to get in and out to max my returns. And, to an extent I was able to wring a point or two of gains here and there. But all it takes is to get whip-sawed one time....and you could set yourself back a decade or more. Ask me how I know these things. grin.

I do think a guy can hedge ......maybe 10 to 20% of your portfolio.....if you think you are in tune with the markets. But I am not sure it pays.....as if you do "win"....you'r likely to get braver and braver until at some point "the market" gives you a lesson. My 2 cents.


LOL....I feel like that old duffer in the movie Wall Street.....giving advice.....and then packing up his desk as he was not churning enough stock. grin. (Hal Holbrook?? ).

I agree. With a tiny exception. Like you I let the advisors do their thing. That’s what they’re for. But sometimes that whole preserve thing (while very good) misses obvious upside. When the market tanked during Covid I made them buy. It paid off. When the market crapped out this time I suggested they buy. Should have made them. Because they only dabbled.

 

[bwoods11]

Palantir is up to $128 !

 

[Turkish]

Palantir is up to $128 !

You’re welcome. I sold all mine yesterday.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I’m just glad I didn’t panic and sell everything when the sky was falling. We’ve seen market downturns enough times to hold on for the ride. Every time it happens people say, “this time it’s different”. Every time so far, it comes back. I’ll just ride it and hope history is a good teacher.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There really are not good alternatives.....IMO.

You gents ever hear of the acronym, "T.I.N.A." With everyone being told they need to invest in the markets for their future financial security, instead of crap interest returns on bank savings accounts and other lesser "money growers", T.I.N.A. comes into play. "There is no alternative." So with billions of people worldwide investing in all the global markets, it makes sense to hang on for the ride. But that conclusion comes with a big caveat - that we (the whole world) don't end up in a world war, or another global pandemic that could be worse than Covid. Then all bets are off. Global peace (or close to it) means a TON when it comes to market stability.

 

[Buckly]

You’re welcome. I sold all mine yesterday.

I sold at 129 today. I’ll take the profits because well, they’re too good to pass up. Did keep a small amount in because I can’t get hurt anymore on that. 128 was my target but I himmed and hawed around and made and extra dollar a share. . LOL.

 

[Buckly]

“You don’t have to beat the market, you just have to be the market”. -Terry Savage

• Match market performance by investing in low-cost index funds (e.g., S&P 500 ETFs).
• Focus on long-term growth rather than short-term speculation.
• Avoid high fees, timing risks, and underperformance common in active management.

Why It’s Smart

• Passive investing outperforms most actively managed funds over the long term.
• It simplifies investing — no need to pick stocks or time the market.
• Index funds offer broad diversification and lower expenses.

Backed by Experts:

• Warren Buffett: “A low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best investment most Americans can make.”
• Jack Bogle (Vanguard founder): Advocated “be the market” via index funds.
• Nobel laureates like Eugene Fama and Burton Malkiel support efficient market investing

I agree to that as a good strategy for like retirement. On the other hand , what fun is that? LOL. And yes, fees are a killer over time.

 

[SD51555]

I'm gonna take it in the pills hard on VLO. Every 6 months or so, it'll pull this shit where it just jumps 15-20% in under 5 days on no stock specific news. I'm missing out on over $10k in upside due to this run. I haven't lost anything on it, I just missed all the run up.

Now, that being said, the juice over in TMF is looking really good.



The trade of the year is shaping up in interest rates. I'm eyeballing the $35.50 put in TMF. This would be roughly 1%/week, but you also have to call a lid on interest rate hikes. America needs to print money, and we can't go much higher before something is going to break badly.

 

[SD51555]

Of course the other issue is, this could be the thing that ends the 40 year hoax of money printing and fake wealth, and it all comes crashing down. So if anyone knows what the little green man behind the curtain is going to order the fed to do to us, I'd like to hear it.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Of course the other issue is, this could be the thing that ends the 40 year hoax of money printing and fake wealth, and it all comes crashing down. So if anyone knows what the little green man behind the curtain is going to order the fed to do to us, I'd like to hear it.

The orange man behind the desk is gonna force the fed to do nothing by demanding a big beautiful deficit growing bill.

 

[bwoods11]

The NASDAQ is always an interesting watch … it’s the first sign of trouble and rallies back fast . It’s up 20% in the past month !

 

[Westwind]

The NASDAQ is always an interesting watch … it’s the first sign of trouble and rallies back fast . It’s up 20% in the past month !

Overall, I'm back in the game. Not 100% back to where I was but looking up.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

There’s a play coming up I just need to figure out exactly what it is. After they pass this asinine big beautiful spending bill the bond vigilantes will destroy yields. They will skyrocket. Already over 4.5% on 10 year. Could easily see 5 after. This bill ADDS to our debt substantially…shouldn’t be shocking considering trumps a fiscal liberal as evident from the first term. And congressional pubs, save roy, massie and Rand are just lap dogs, so it’s going to pass. I’m thinking anything related to construction is an absolute short. Homebuilders should be crushed and related industries. May be some money to be made.

 

[Turkish]

There’s a play coming up I just need to figure out exactly what it is. After they pass this asinine big beautiful spending bill the bond vigilantes will destroy yields. They will skyrocket. Already over 4.5% on 10 year. Could easily see 5 after. This bill ADDS to our debt substantially…shouldn’t be shocking considering trumps a fiscal liberal as evident from the first term. And congressional pubs, save roy, massie and Rand are just lap dogs, so it’s going to pass. I’m thinking anything related to construction is an absolute short. Homebuilders should be crushed and related industries. May be some money to be made.

I knew a builder that won the Powerball once. $100 million. I asked him what he was going to do with all the money. He said “I guess I’ll keep building houses until I lose it all.”

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

I knew a builder that won the Powerball once. $100 million. I asked him what he was going to do with all the money. He said “I guess I’ll keep building houses until I lose it all.”

Haha that’s awesome. I should have gotten into a different industry
It’s like the old saying…how do you make a million dollars in ranching, start with 2

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Wally CEO said they will pass tariffs / consequences onto customers. If the world's largest retailer openly said that, how many others will be forced into that same stance? Gotta believe with rising prices, folks will tighten up and the "R" word may come into play. The avg. American family - regardless of party affiliation - will feel like they're in a vise. Stocks went up somewhat once tariff dates were pushed back. Any amount of tariffs, be they 10% or 100% - will be paid by consumers. Wondering what will happen when tariffs kick in.

Avg. folks never win. It's planned that way.

 

[homerj]

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Barclay's all say chances of a recession this year are below 50%

 

[bwoods11]

Wally CEO said they will pass tariffs / consequences onto customers. If the world's largest retailer openly said that, how many others will be forced into that same stance? Gotta believe with rising prices, folks will tighten up and the "R" word may come into play. The avg. American family - regardless of party affiliation - will feel like they're in a vise. Stocks went up somewhat once tariff dates were pushed back. Any amount of tariffs, be they 10% or 100% - will be paid by consumers. Wondering what will happen when tariffs kick in.

Avg. folks never win. It's planned that way.

So La Choy Chicken Chow Mein will be $7.00 instead of $6.48?

 

[jsasker007]

Hate to see Trump unravel all the progress that we made under Joe Biden.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

So La Choy Chicken Chow Mein will be $7.00 instead of $6.48?

Now multiply that over thousand upon thousand of goods across all facets of our life. Inflation is death by a thousand cuts no matter how small.