Asymmetric/drone warfare has become the great equalizer. I have followed the Ukraine Russia deal a decent bit. Drones have singlehandedly allowed Ukraine to essentially create a stalemate in what should be a lopsided victory. To put it mildly they are a deadly pain in the ass. Relentless, cheap, effective and getting better daily. Iran, which already had an advanced drone program, could easily fire drones from hundreds of miles away and cause chaos in the strait.
I’m so far from a military historian or strategist that I’m closer to being a brain surgeon, but I wonder if philosophy will have to change to “win” a war going forward. Wars back in the day seemed to be bent on total destruction. Start with military targets and work your way into civilian until someone in charge cries uncle. And then it went more precision strikes to minimize civilian casualties and cost. That was when countries relied on conventional weapons to fight. I wonder because of the seemingly endless supply of unmanned artillery if the only way to bring someone to their knees is total destruction of a country. I hope not but I don’t know how you win these days. We have destroyed their conventional military by all objective measures yet here they still are, believing they have the upper hand. Maybe taking out infrastructure is the next step, idk. It’s right to worry about the civilians and the resulting attitude after. But Germany and Japan sure took a beating and quickly understood the lesson.