Stock Market is the bottom in?

[bigboreblr]

Any other modern society countries sort of like ours had their currency tank? Think Greece has some merit to look into, but might be a bit small, globally remote far as economy impact goes. Not sure their mix of rural to suburban goes. Country folk can survive. Just a good year to make the garden bigger or add another goat........

Ireland took a tank awhile back? Russia might be hard to get honest info about. But, its a mix of bad economy and government involvement, both internal and external.

Been reading up on the dot com bust and 2008 bust, what went bad, what came out good. Since the internet online stuff got big, now we have a flurry of amateurs like me seeing the yo-yo go up n down every minute on their phones. That has to be amplfying changes. I am looking at a stock I sold 3 weeks ago.. Need to read up on the 1987 and going into 1987 Reaganomics thing..... That might show what military spending has on some stocks. Heard some real whacky stuff from old navy guys about the 80's. That cowboy was trigger happy.

What do you guys think of decent looking companies when you see p/e ratios of 8-15, or what you think might be up an comers with a p/e ratio of like -3 to -10. Also, anybody have a high limit, like some of these AI / Tech big bombs are 46 or even like 60. I'm way too stock dumb to be playing a quick game right now. But hold on to it a few months until you make 15-20% kinda thing. Nothing wrong with making an extra 6 pack with your beer money.

 

[Westwind]

I used to think of a U.S. economic failure as crazy talk. I mostly still do. I don’t like some of the things I am seeing though and my confidence in leadership is not what it should be.

I think we have an “everything bubble”. Housing, tech, metals, everything. Overvalued equities. Lackluster employment news. I think we have to look at what historically happens in non presidential election years. I think we have some irrational exhuberance in the markets. I think we will possibly “melt up” to a crash in the coming months. Meaning some great gains before we lose a lot of value. BUT- timing the market just doesn’t work so what the hell is a guy supposed to do.

The advice from my Bob Brinker newsletter is pretty much to accumulate capital because a buying opportunity is coming. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing, and doing nothing is what I’m currently doing. Parking money for now. Proceeding with extreme caution. Waiting for the right moment. And it sucks. I hate doing nothing.

My newsletters “aggressive” portfolio is currently 40% money market, 40% total stock market, 20% global. Mind blowingly conservative. I have been subscribing for a lot of years and I have never seen that kind of recommendation. I’ve never had money in money market before. It sucks. Still capturing gains but it sure isn’t as much fun as it used to be to look at it.

 

[Double Creek]

The market has always climbed a wall of worry and always will. Stay diversified and be an investor, not a trader. If you buy a speculative stock, offset it with a value stock. Trim your winners when they get uncomfortably large.

As you get older, start moving more into fixed income. It’s really not that complicated as long as you don’t do what the majority of individual investors do… buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

 

[Westwind]

If I was still contributing to a retirement account I would still be hammering it. Especially if I was in private sector and getting matching from my employer. You are effectively “dollar cost averaging” new money into the market and the downturns are when you want to be hammering that money in. Times like now you smile when you log in and see the gains. Win win.

I’m retired, we did very good with this strategy. I just hate it for new investors who may be buying high and see a downturn early and decide that this investing thing is a bad idea. It’s not. Hold your breath and keep on keeping on. In 20 years you’ll know why you are doing it.

Don’t beat the market, be the market. It works.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

As a general rule about smaller, up & comer companies - it's harder for them to access capital, so harder to grow. That capital access gets worse in times like these. Financial markets - globally - are very unstable and chaotic for a couple main reasons. Geo-political tensions, and the rest of the world seeing the U.S. as an unreliable financial & political ally anymore. Numerous world leaders (and former allies who used to trust the U.S.) have said so publicly. When the U.S. is no longer seen as the safe, bedrock financial system in the world - - watch out. China is itching to invade Taiwan (which has the best, cutting-edge chip technology in the entire world) and then China will OWN it. Putin is itching to expand the Russian empire into Europe since we(???) no longer see Russia and Putin as an enemy??????

My wife and I endured the 1987 crash & the dot-com bubble/bust. I followed the advice of people like Buffet, Bogle, Malkiel, Graham, etc. We kept up our DCA investments regularly, we didn't buy into irrational exuberance, and when things crashed, I bought in more heavily after the crashes. But that was then. Many things are different now. The financial policing agencies here that kept trust and relative stability in financial markets (here and abroad) - have been de-funded, gutted and / or eliminated entirely. Sound smart for us investors??? The whole world financial system is very chaotic & shaky now, with wars & rumors of bigger wars due to the ego's of a handful of men who like to think of themselves as "big, strong, tough leaders" - instead of the dictators they truly are. Blood has been shed in Ukraine & other places - and more blood will be soon, I'm thinking. The blood will not come from rich families, either. They'll be hiding in their luxurious underground bunkers. Avg. working folks in many countries will be doing the dying. Will people never learn???

The U.S. isn't seen on the world stage as "the trusted good guys" anymore. And we are not the only population in the world. Given these current scenarios, investing is going to become more and more dicey - and not just for us here in the U.S. Financial / banking / and investment firms globally are unsure how to proceed these days. I know, because I read and research financial / investment articles, publications, and interviews with heavy-hitters every day. Every day. CEO's of companies say publicly they aren't willing to commit capital to projects in this global financial / political climate, because every day brings more chaos & instability. They aren't as sure what tomorrow may bring anymore. The backdrop in the world has become very unstable & chaotic in their views. I'm only sharing what the heavy-hitters have been saying. The odds of success investing aren't as promising anymore. And I'm right there with everyone else.

Record highs in some markets??? So? ...... Markets have crashed in the blink of an eye in the past, as mentioned previously. Investors at those times thought they couldn't lose too, and that markets only go up. Climb on the "happy train." And here's the kicker ..... things were much, much more stable globally on the financial & political stages. There was what financial historians called "the peace dividend." The world was basically at peace, and countries were all about growth & prosperity. Spending in many countries went toward building economies and making people's lives better - infrastructure, health care, food production - instead of spending hundreds of billions of $$$$$ on war prep. Make no mistake, military spending by many countries drove up debt & deficits for all of those countries - the U.S. included. The U.S. debt tripled in the 1980's due to military spending. It was necessary because of Russia's aggression. When Russian leadership changed for the better back then (it has since reversed course), and the Berlin wall came down, the "peace dividend" started, and paved the way for more prosperity in many countries. That "peace dividend" is gone now. All we can do is sit by and hope all kinds of sh## doesn't hit the fan because of a very few huge ego's in the world. You & I aren't at the controls.

So if anyone has a good, smart path forward for investing under these circumstances ..........

 

[Westwind]

Cisco!!!!!!! BUY MORE CISCO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep, we did it, lol