Stock Market is the bottom in?

[homerj]

I don’t believe there is a specific time that pain comes about. Since when has it been written in stone that the markets and the economy be in sync. Lots of times they aren’t. The economy can be great and the markets tank and vice versa but, I think you’re smart enough about all this to know that. And obviously fretting about 2 months of down turn out of 30 plus years of retirement is kind of ridiculous but, again I think you know that. I go with history. History states the markets always go up over time.

^^^this.
Markets go up, markets go down. If you're smart enough to know why they go down, then you'll be smart enough to know why and when they'll go up.

Historical charts show markets move from the lower left to the upper right. Stay invested and continue to invest and you'll come out ahead. Freak out every time there's a correction and sell at bad times, then you'll look for a scapegoat.

If you're older and don't have a plan for not selling expensive assets at a loss so you can maintain your lifestyle, then you don't have much of a plan.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Listening to Musk & the DOGE team was fascinating last night on Fox . He said they found a survey that was on National Parks. This was something you could put on Survey monkey for maybe $20,000 according to Musk .

The government was being charged $800 million for the survey ! Simply unbelievable. It’s a good watch, I think even Democrats would be impressed by this interview.

Brett Baier interview.

I’ll just leave this here. I’m a conservative through and through…but I just don’t want true conservatives to lose sight of the true story. Trumps handling of the economy is suspect at best to me.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/despite-musks-claims-the-trump-administrations-spending-is-on-pace-to-surpass-bidens-levels-19cdf24c

 

[Turkish]

I’ll just leave this here. I’m a conservative through and through…but I just don’t want true conservatives to lose sight of the true story. Trumps handling of the economy is suspect at best to me.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/despite-musks-claims-the-trump-administrations-spending-is-on-pace-to-surpass-bidens-levels-19cdf24c

Didn’t read the article. Don’t care. I voted against, not for. And I’m satisfied.

The truest conservatives haven’t noticed the market in ‘25.

 

[homerj]

Did somebody say Trump was a fiscal conservative? If so, he's not. He's also not a social conservative. He's a populist.

 

[Mortenson]

I’ll just leave this here. I’m a conservative through and through…but I just don’t want true conservatives to lose sight of the true story. Trumps handling of the economy is suspect at best to me.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/despite-musks-claims-the-trump-administrations-spending-is-on-pace-to-surpass-bidens-levels-19cdf24c

I'm hoping Trump shows some fiscal conservatism. If he doesn't I'll be upset. Based on the titles of the most recent 20 articles that author has penned, I don't think you'll get an honest assessment from him. Obviously a deranged never trumper.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

I'm hoping Trump shows some fiscal conservatism. If he doesn't I'll be upset. Based on the titles of the most recent 20 articles that author has penned, I don't think you'll get an honest assessment from him. Obviously a deranged never trumper.

I think the continuing resolution was such a bad move toward showing fiscal conservatism. We got 9 more months of democat policy. It seems like Thomas massie is the only one who isn’t drunk with spending (and maybe not corrupt). Trumps first time was crazy spending too. Im hopefully but not very optimistic if that makes sense. I would love to be blown away a year from now with this thing humming along

 

[OakSeeds]

Four years ago, way back on Feb. 6, 2021 (post 653) I provided info on some Blue Chip Growth Funds - including the Fidelity BCG Fund. I shared this info because the fund had been very good to me over several years before 2021. If you review the Fidelity BCG Fund performance over the past 10 years, you will observe annual gains of ... 6.28 / 1.59 / 36.06 / 1.07 / 33.44 / 62.23 / 22.71 / - 38.46 / 55.60 / 39.70. If you had invested $10,000 in Fidelity BCG funds on 1-1-2015, it would have doubled in 5 years and be worth $52,753 in 10 years on 12-31-2024. $100,000 invested would give you over half million at the end of 2024, and a quarter million would probably let you buy a new property worth more than 1M.
Obviously, this is a long range view of acquisition and holding ... something I'm much better at than "dipping-n-ripping." However, that's not the purpose of my post; after the tech-debacle last Friday, I retreated to the sidelines with most of my Tech-funds. Fidelity BCG has lost money 5 out of the last 7 days including today's drop of over 3%. I ain't comfortable with that kind of sustained losses. Given the old adage, sell-in-May-and-go away" ... I,m just a couple months early. Besides, there are money market funds that keep your money working. I'm afraid the market may get very rocky over the next 6 months, but I'll sleep better at night. Carry on friends.

My post on Feb 27 (#6255) ... where I revealed that I moved completely out of tech (Fidelity Blue Chip very heavy on Mag-7), coasted to money markets as a sideline play, suffered very small losses in comparison to what has happened during the last 4 weeks (I got out of big tech Feb 21 ... some 35 days ago ... and predicted a rocky period to unfold over the next 4-6 months).
However, the market is a looooooong-term play and it will RECOVER at some point ... the key is to understand when that point (the bottom)
has been reached. Good luck to all the dip-rip-and flippers .... remember, the lower it goes, the greater the boost it takes to get you back to even, and no, I'm not advocating that anyone sell at a substantial loss.
When the downside risk of a pullback or worse (inflated values of tech) appears substantially greater than the upside potential (burn out the frenzy over Nvidia and some others) one can think of it as a timing opportunity (even though one can't time the market with any regularity or high accuracy). What the market does next Tuesday will be very interesting.

 

[Mortenson]

I think the continuing resolution was such a bad move toward showing fiscal conservatism. We got 9 more months of democat policy. It seems like Thomas massie is the only one who isn’t drunk with spending (and maybe not corrupt). Trumps first time was crazy spending too. Im hopefully but not very optimistic if that makes sense. I would love to be blown away a year from now with this thing humming along

The CR thing I don't understand well at all. That's where not having a tv hurts, and most of online time is spent here. What's the gist of why Massie was the only one and other so called super conservatives voted for it? I want a balanced budget and nothing less. Question, what would it take to balance assuming tax rates today stay the same, would a 15% cut across the board do it? Like no one wants to cut VA and such but there's so much waste there, like everywhere else. Why can across the board cuts never gain favor? Don't answer that, lol. If Doge can axe a trillion of waste then what's the number that cuts need to be at?

 

[Foggy47]

My post on Feb 27 (#6255) ... where I revealed that I moved completely out of tech (Fidelity Blue Chip very heavy on Mag-7), coasted to money markets as a sideline play, suffered very small losses in comparison to what has happened during the last 4 weeks (I got out of big tech Feb 21 ... some 35 days ago ... and predicted a rocky period to unfold over the next 4-6 months).
However, the market is a looooooong-term play and it will RECOVER at some point ... the key is to understand when that point (the bottom)
has been reached. Good luck to all the dip-rip-and flippers .... remember, the lower it goes, the greater the boost it takes to get you back to even, and no, I'm not advocating that anyone sell at a substantial loss.

When I owned my biz.....some 20 years back.....I had an old-timer for a friend that would stop by many days for a coffee and a visit. We got to know each other quite well and would talk personal finance from time to time. I think it was a major downturn in about 2000.....and he took the losses hard. He was mid 80's at that time. He told me he sold out 100% of his stocks.....as he could no longer stand more losses....and figured he had "enough" money for him and his wife if he just stayed in cash.

I tried to talk him out of it....to some extent....but his mind was made up...and I understood his point. At some point your future years are too short to want/need to go thru the gyrations of the markets. To his point: "why risk it" if you have "enough" to live a good life?"

Up to that point I never considered not staying fully invested in stocks....but I get the logic now. If you have 100% chance (Monte Carlo theories) at having enough to last your remaining years....why do you want to risk your future? OTOH....there are no guarantees of any of these things.

 

[SD51555]

Every trillion dollars that get printed changes the math for everyone. Wasn’t too long ago a million bucks was a target and good enough. Then interest rates bottomed out and there was almost no risk free income for old codgers to convert into.

Now, income rates are up quite a bit, but cost of living has shot up and eaten all that away too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Foggy47]

Every trillion dollars that get printed changes the math for everyone. Wasn’t too long ago a million bucks was a target and good enough. Then interest rates bottomed out and there was almost no risk free income for old codgers to convert into.

Now, income rates are up quite a bit, but cost of living has shot up and eaten all that away too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep. What seemed like "enough" ten years ago.....may now be "too little"......and it can change pretty fast.

I like the McDonalds Big Mac index. At one time a Big Mac was only $1 or so. Today (I assume) its a $10 or more sandwich.....and has gotten smaller.

I just posted on another site....that when I was in my teens.....I could buy a hamburger, fries and a coke for 50 cents and got a penny in change. At that time it was said that if you had 100 thousand dollars you were wealthy beyond belief. Remember the TV show "The Millionaire"?

I bought my first home for $20,000. It was a two story brick home with three bedrooms and two baths, LR, DR, den and more.....and it had a rental apartment in the basement with kitchen and bath. Nice house too on a full lot and garage, etc. $2000 down and 7% mortgage was about $125. month. Still a nice home.

Edit: Damn.....I'm old.

 

[Turkish]

My post on Feb 27 (#6255) ... where I revealed that I moved completely out of tech (Fidelity Blue Chip very heavy on Mag-7), coasted to money markets as a sideline play, suffered very small losses in comparison to what has happened during the last 4 weeks (I got out of big tech Feb 21 ... some 35 days ago ... and predicted a rocky period to unfold over the next 4-6 months).
However, the market is a looooooong-term play and it will RECOVER at some point ... the key is to understand when that point (the bottom)
has been reached. Good luck to all the dip-rip-and flippers .... remember, the lower it goes, the greater the boost it takes to get you back to even, and no, I'm not advocating that anyone sell at a substantial loss.
When the downside risk of a pullback or worse (inflated values of tech) appears substantially greater than the upside potential (burn out the frenzy over Nvidia and some others) one can think of it as a timing opportunity (even though one can't time the market with any regularity or high accuracy). What the market does next Tuesday will be very interesting.

The litmus test is when you jump back in. Keep us posted.

 

[Westwind]

I don’t believe there is a specific time that pain comes about. Since when has it been written in stone that the markets and the economy be in sync. Lots of times they aren’t. The economy can be great and the markets tank and vice versa but, I think you’re smart enough about all this to know that. And obviously fretting about 2 months of down turn out of 30 plus years of retirement is kind of ridiculous but, again I think you know that. I go with history. History states the markets always go up over time.

This is a really good comment- the market isn’t the economy. Easy to forget.

I should know the exact quote but I don’t think there has been a seven year period where the market has been down since the 30’s or something. Pretty amazing and another reminder not to bet against the U.S.

 

[Buckly]

When I owned my biz.....some 20 years back.....I had an old-timer for a friend that would stop by many days for a coffee and a visit. We got to know each other quite well and would talk personal finance from time to time. I think it was a major downturn in about 2000.....and he took the losses hard. He was mid 80's at that time. He told me he sold out 100% of his stocks.....as he could no longer stand more losses....and figured he had "enough" money for him and his wife if he just stayed in cash.

I tried to talk him out of it....to some extent....but his mind was made up...and I understood his point. At some point your future years are too short to want/need to go thru the gyrations of the markets. To his point: "why risk it" if you have "enough" to live a good life?"

Up to that point I never considered not staying fully invested in stocks....but I get the logic now. If you have 100% chance (Monte Carlo theories) at having enough to last your remaining years....why do you want to risk your future? OTOH....there are no guarantees of any of these things.

That’s the perfect scenario. Have enough cash that you never have to risk any money. I do actually know a few people that have that plan, although very few could do it. Just depends on what is enough. 80 plus in age with lots of cash I’d say a good plan.

 

[Buckly]

This is a really good comment- the market isn’t the economy. Easy to forget.

I should know the exact quote but I don’t think there has been a seven year period where the market has been down since the 30’s or something. Pretty amazing and another reminder not to bet against the U.S.

I’ve said this many times before. A good plan in retirement is to have 5 years cash or safe assets. This pretty much can get you through any big downturn and the market will recover in that amount of time. Selling stocks in a downturn is bad and can run you out of money. I know some have said they can’t put that much aside and still make it but, I wouldn’t retire if I couldn’t weather these blips. Something to work toward one way or another.

 

[Foggy47]

Been retired for over 20 years now. Best plan for me was to accumulate twice as much as you think you will need in retirement. That was not so much by luck, as by hard work, good fortune, and determination. As it works out....we will not need that extra 1/2.....but it's been used to pay for college educations of my grandkids, assure my "kids" families will be able to do as I have done for them and their family's, and donate a decent amount each year to our chosen charities. In short....we have been able to "pay it forward."

Now I have a great grand daughter....and it's gratifying to see her grandparents are doing as I did for their kids. They have had great careers....and have a good life. Feels like a good legacy. Gratifying for me. My wife and I tell each other: "we have been the lucky ones"....tho our health is running out. It has not come easy, by any measure. But, at the end of our time...all we have is our FAMILY and friends. We are blessed.

Save on!

 

[Angus 1895]

I was all prepared for Trump 2.0. Had accumulated cash and was ready. Well after he got elected the market took off. So I assumed I was in error. The first small pull back I went all in.

Ouch!

 

[Jerry-B-WI]

Do any of you fellas use E-trade for your brokerage? Any complaints? I see complaints about Schwab. I'd like to help my Grandson set up a Roth IRA. I used Ameritrade for decades but they don't exist anymore.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Do any of you fellas use E-trade for your brokerage? Any complaints? I see complaints about Schwab. I'd like to help my Grandson set up a Roth IRA. I used Ameritrade for decades but they don't exist anymore.

No complaints. Used for years. App is user friendly

 

[Foggy47]

Do any of you fellas use E-trade for your brokerage? Any complaints? I see complaints about Schwab. I'd like to help my Grandson set up a Roth IRA. I used Ameritrade for decades but they don't exist anymore.

Unless you are going to be an active stock picker / investor.......and IF you prefer mutual funds for investments.......I would consider simply setting up an account with Vanguard and use them for all my investments. Maybe if he accumulates enough over time you could use a broker like Schwab.....but there is nothing wrong with a decent low-cost fund company like Vanguard. Other decent fund companies are T. Rowe Price and Fidelity. Tho I think Vanguard is hard to beat for costs.