Stock Market is the bottom in?

[PatinPA]

The stock theatre is quite robust right now. Context is important. The market has not held valuations this high for very long, ever. I'm not predicting a crash. I have been predicting a crash since 2009 that still isn't here.

View attachment 71934

Anyway, there is no more profit now than there was last year. Valuations are just blowing up. Costco is trading at a 60 PE, and they have 5% revenue growth. That probably means they're sales are falling 7-10% YOY after adjusting for inflation. Lots of dogshit is headed for the moon, including lots of random crypto. The hawk tuah broad screwed stupid people with money to the tune of $490 million dollars schilling a meme crypto. That is the sign that peak exuberance (stupid) is here. And if you're wondering, yes she is.

Hawk Tuah girl: Online star faces crypto coin criticism

Haliey Welch's "Hawk" digital coin shot up in price then lost 95% of its value just hours after it launched.

www.bbc.com

There is no fear and no reason or rationale. I'm not calling the top, but I'm not buying either.

I heard she could potentially see jailtime for that.

 

[BuckSutherland]

^^^

They keep printing money.... The money needs to find a home. Comparing PE ratios in 2024 to 1950 is apples to oranges. Every bear predicting the end has been WRONG for the last 100 years. 10-20 years from now the market will be much higher than it is today just like it has been for the last 100+ years. Indeed things are frothy at the moment, but they should be for all the money they printed.

 

[Foggy47]

^^^

They keep printing money.... The money needs to find a home. Comparing PE ratios in 2024 to 1950 is apples to oranges. Every bear predicting the end has been WRONG for the last 100 years. 10-20 years from now the market will be much higher than its is today just like it has been for the last 100+ years. Indeed things are frothy at the moment, but they should be for all the money they printed.

^ To your point......I can remember back into the 80's when the money supply reports would move the market. Back then Alan Greenspan had some weird affliction with M2 Money Supply and a raft of other data and the market would hinge on Alan's latest reports and the humus he fed folks. He had more word salads than Kamel Toe. Today.....money supply is taken for granted (to a large extent) as nobody has done much to curb money growth.

Will Trump finally make a dent in our spending and deficit? Seems there are sincere plans?? Stay tuned.

 

[Barndog56]

I just saw today that the Dallas Cowboys are now worth $10.32 billion.

Jerry Jones bought the team for $140 million in 1989.

You guys are wasting your money on stocks.

 

[SD51555]

^ To your point......I can remember back into the 80's when the money supply reports would move the market. Back then Alan Greenspan had some weird affliction with M2 Money Supply and a raft of other data and the market would hinge on Alan's latest reports and the humus he fed folks. He had more word salads than Kamel Toe. Today.....money supply is taken for granted (to a large extent) as nobody has done much to curb money growth.

Will Trump finally make a dent in our spending and deficit? Seems there are sincere plans?? Stay tuned.

There's no telling how much money is being printed, because bankers can go to japan and borrow all the money they want at 1.6% and come back here, convert it dollars and buy every damn thing that is and isn't bolted down, including single family homes. With the yen collapsing immensely faster than the dollar, it's as if our bankers are getting paid to borrow money. They're shorting the yen by borrowing it and then dumping it right away for dollars.

I have to figure out how to tap into japanese prime rate credit markets.

 

[Foggy47]

There's no telling how much money is being printed, because bankers can go to japan and borrow all the money they want at 1.6% and come back here, convert it dollars and buy every damn thing that is and isn't bolted down, including single family homes. With the yen collapsing immensely faster than the dollar, it's as if our bankers are getting paid to borrow money. They're shorting the yen by borrowing it and then dumping it right away for dollars.

I have to figure out how to tap into japanese prime rate credit markets.

People talk about the Government "printing" more money. The government only "prints" enough money to circulate for a small amount of cash commerce. The rest is really just a few digits in some fictions account somewhere. More or less like Crypto currency......but with a lame promise of our Government. This system cannot end well.

Odd memories...... I can remember when people paid CASH for large purchases. When buying out of town.....and a large purchase was made (say a truck or a large machine) men would carry $1000 bills or $500 dollar bills. I was just a kid.....but I remember seeing these bills from time to time as you often could not accept a man's check from a far away bank....but many paid in cash at auctions or to machinery buys. Never heard of counterfeit back then....as folks were unable to print such things. My dad would go to auctions in Iowa to buy machines....and carried some pretty big wads of cash.....and a pistol. I believe they printed money in up to $10,000 denominations at one time.

 

[Foggy47]

FYI.

Large denominations of United States currency - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SD51555]

People talk about the Government "printing" more money. The government only "prints" enough money to circulate for a small amount of cash commerce. The rest is really just a few digits in some fictions account somewhere. More or less like Crypto currency......but with a lame promise of our Government. This system cannot end well.

Odd memories...... I can remember when people paid CASH for large purchases. When buying out of town.....and a large purchase was made (say a truck or a large machine) men would carry $1000 bills or $500 dollar bills. I was just a kid.....but I remember seeing these bills from time to time as you often could not accept a man's check from a far away bank....but many paid in cash at auctions or to machinery buys. Never heard of counterfeit back then....as folks were unable to print such things. My dad would go to auctions in Iowa to buy machines....and carried some pretty big wads of cash.....and a pistol. I believe they printed money in up to $10,000 denominations at one time.

To do that anymore, a guy would have to carry a briefcase full of banded wads to of $100 bills to be able to buy anything that of real value.

A starter home: 35 banded bundles of $100 bills

A new skid steer: 12 banded bundles

New loader: 50

New truck: 6-12

40 acres of good deer land: 30-60


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Foggy47]

To do that anymore, a guy would have to carry a briefcase full of banded wads to of $100 bills to be able to buy anything that of real value.

A starter home: 35 banded bundles of $100 bills

A new skid steer: 12 banded bundles

New loader: 50

New truck: 6-12

40 acres of good deer land: 30-60


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can remember when the big currency bills stopped being carried by people. Instead, Banks would issue a letter of credit.....followed by an "irrevocable letter of credit". Also used was a "sight draft bill of lading"......which would release funds to the seller upon the receipt of a shipment to the buyer. <-----lawyers figured out ways around all of those things.

I can remember being in the wood furnace biz.....and we had a big customer that provided us with an "irrevocable letter of credit" (for a large purchase of furnaces) upon which we shipped a truck load of our products to our customer. After the 60 day period in which our buyer was to pay....we were forced to call upon our "irrevocable" letter of credit for the funds...which we desperately needed. At which time the bank simply said they withdrew their letter of credit....and we should "go fish". That just about put us out of biz. Freaking crooks. Who can you trust?

 

[Foggy47]

My dad was "living large" in the 50's. He was pretty big in construction machinery, farm machinery and trucks (for our area)....at a time when they were hard to get. Anyway....he would go to big auctions in Iowa where lots of these things were sold.....and was a buyer for his biz back in MN. He bought a new pink 57 Old's Super 88, J2, Door Hardtop and was traveling in Iowa....when he rolled it over and was damn near killed. Broke his back.....and lots more. In the hospital for weeks.

In the glove box were two big rolls of cash which was about $20,000....along with a Hi-standard Pistol. I remember this event big time. He survived....and some good folks in Iowa (near the crash site) held his cash and pistol for my family. That was pretty big money in the 50's.....and almost hard to beliveve the honesty of those folks.

I remember going out to the Black Hills in SD on a vacation in that Olds. It was a pretty special car and a real head-turner.....until it was totaled. IMO...this was one of the most beautiful cars ever made. I guess pink was a big thing at that time. (this pic was off the web....and I think his was a bit more "pink" than the one shown?)

 

[hunts_with_stick]

Tender offer for cvr, haven’t looked at it yet this morning

 

[PatinPA]

Tender offer for cvr, haven’t looked at it yet this morning

$18.50 a share. I think I'm in at almost $25 a share so I'm just going to hold on to it and see what happens.

 

[SD51555]

Rate hike surprise inbound?

54% jump in egg prices.

Producer Price Inflation Comes In 'Red Hot' In November | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Bowsnbucks]

The stock theatre is quite robust right now. Context is important. The market has not held valuations this high for very long, ever. I'm not predicting a crash. I have been predicting a crash since 2009 that still isn't here.

View attachment 71934

Anyway, there is no more profit now than there was last year. Valuations are just blowing up. Costco is trading at a 60 PE, and they have 5% revenue growth. That probably means they're sales are falling 7-10% YOY after adjusting for inflation. Lots of dogshit is headed for the moon, including lots of random crypto. The hawk tuah broad screwed stupid people with money to the tune of $490 million dollars schilling a meme crypto. That is the sign that peak exuberance (stupid) is here. And if you're wondering, yes she is.

Hawk Tuah girl: Online star faces crypto coin criticism

Haliey Welch's "Hawk" digital coin shot up in price then lost 95% of its value just hours after it launched.

www.bbc.com

There is no fear and no reason or rationale. I'm not calling the top, but I'm not buying either.

Agree - valuations are really high - some insanely so. Doing homework is the rule now.

"Be greedy when others are scared, and be scared when others are greedy" - Buffet

Exuberance is high. Some players might take some money off the table, based on earnings expectations ahead that aren't in line with current valuations.

 

[SD51555]

Agree - valuations are really high - some insanely so. Doing homework is the rule now.

"Be greedy when others are scared, and be scared when others are greedy" - Buffet

Exuberance is high. Some players might take some money off the table, based on earnings expectations ahead that aren't in line with current valuations.

What I wonder if what happens in the next 12 months. If earnings aren't moving, does the P/E of the S&P 500 rise from an already outrageous 27 to a 40 just to replicate the 40% rise in 2024? And will someone pay 100x earnings for a company that is shrinking?

 

[SD51555]

Those guys we spent all those years fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan...

Yeah, we just helped them acquire Syria, and they are well underway executing Christians with the blessing of our state department and pentagon.

Go democracy!

"Moderate Jihad": Syrians 'Excited' Over Public Executions | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Barndog56]

So today marks the 44th anniversary of Apple's IPO.

A $1,000 investment in the IPO would have purchased 45 shares at $22.00 each.

The stock has split 5 times since then, turning those 45 shares into 10,080 shares.

At today's closing price of $247.96, that $1,000 investment would be worth $2,499,436.80.

If only I could go back and tell my 11yo self. Of course, I don't know where he would come up with the $1k. Lol

 

[Bowsnbucks]

What I wonder if what happens in the next 12 months. If earnings aren't moving, does the P/E of the S&P 500 rise from an already outrageous 27 to a 40 just to replicate the 40% rise in 2024? And will someone pay 100x earnings for a company that is shrinking?

Great questions, SD. Some stocks are already getting 55x earnings now. WOW! Big bets on future earnings.

The long-term trend for the market is always up over the years - even with a few crashes along the way. We diversified enough to avoid a train wreck, but still keep the bulk in a few varied stock funds. Just gotta hope when we need some money in the future, the markets haven't taken a dive. Thus the need for diversification!

 

[Bowsnbucks]

So today marks the 44th anniversary of Apple's IPO.

A $1,000 investment in the IPO would have purchased 45 shares at $22.00 each.

The stock has split 5 times since then, turning those 45 shares into 10,080 shares.

At today's closing price of $247.96, that $1,000 investment would be worth $2,499,436.80.

If only I could go back and tell my 11yo self. Of course, I don't know where he would come up with the $1k. Lol

I remember when Amazon started. I thought "Who is gonna buy that many millions of books online?" It began as a book-seller. Now they sell everything!! If I'd have plunked down a grand or 2 back at the beginning ....... Now we own it in funds, not the same as being an early bird when the doors opened.

 

[bwoods11]

So today marks the 44th anniversary of Apple's IPO.

A $1,000 investment in the IPO would have purchased 45 shares at $22.00 each.

The stock has split 5 times since then, turning those 45 shares into 10,080 shares.

At today's closing price of $247.96, that $1,000 investment would be worth $2,499,436.80.

If only I could go back and tell my 11yo self. Of course, I don't know where he would come up with the $1k. Lol

I credit my son for my long term investment in Apple stock . He told me every kid in the school had an IPod !

The next day I bought X amount of shares and it’s split and grown insane since. I’ve never sold a share. I usually add some. It’s been my best stock .

Second best investment overall, next to Iowa farm/rec land !