Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Bowsnbucks]

“Core inflation is about 3 % now”. LOL. That’s what the libs say every time in their talking points that the economy is doing great. Hah. What is core inflation? Very vague.
Check your car insurance lately? Up 26% this year. Check your home owners. Up 12% this year. Gas is up, rents are up and groceries are now a luxuryfor a lot of people. These are things the consumer is feeling every day. Keep on thinking inflation is down and everything’s rosy. if you want. Core inflation, another lib talking point with global economy not based in reality.

Name-calling. ^ ^ ^ And yes - core inflation is about 3%, which has never included the volatile prices of energy and food. Those 2 sectors are subject to weather, global instability, transportation cost fluctuations - more so than the other factors that make up the core inflation numbers. The info I get is from a variety of financial sources - politics isn't the source. Every day I read articles and interviews from the WSJ, Forbes, Barron's, Fortune, IBD, U.S. News & World Report, Kiplinger, Newsweek, etc. Also interviews and articles by fund managers at Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, Blackrock, Franklin, etc. When fund managers of any of those places say what they're planning for and why they're doing it, they only speak of the real numbers - because that's what they have to deal with when investing money.

Recently, Larry Kudlow - a Fox man, said publicly that "I was wrong. The economy isn't doing badly at all. The numbers are good, and this economy is resilient." His statement was on a variety of news outlets, and it came as a surprise to many, since he's always been a conservative voice, usually trashing anything that's not tied to a Republican.

 

[g squared 23]

You call energy and food prices volatile, but why is it that they always, consistently seem to be higher when democrats are in office? Those are what have the greatest effect on the middle class and below, so it’s an elitist slight of hand removing them from inflation measures and trying to convince people that are struggling to live that they’re too stupid to appreciate this wonderful economy. If only we were blessed with buffett’s wisdom (and billions), we’d realize how great things are right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mortenson]

Sounds like Kudlow has more recently changed his tune again, back to correctly thinking things are a train wreck.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/05/13/kudlow_bidenomics_is_unpopular_because_it_hasnt_worked_a_sinking_economy_will_sink_all_the_boats.html

 

[jsasker007]

Huh, My leg is getting wet but it's not raining.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

You call energy and food prices volatile, but why is it that they always, consistently seem to be higher when democrats are in office? Those are what have the greatest effect on the middle class and below, so it’s an elitist slight of hand removing them from inflation measures and trying to convince people that are struggling to live that they’re too stupid to appreciate this wonderful economy. If only we were blessed with buffett’s wisdom (and billions), we’d realize how great things are right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Calling energy and food volatile isn't my word - it's from those in the investment / economic spheres. And it is not an elitist sleight-of-hand trick either - through both R & D administrations, energy and food prices have been separated from "core inflation" numbers. You can't change history & facts to make a partisan point of argument. Energy prices have been up & down in both R & D administrations. It's a global marketplace - not controlled by any American president. Food prices are largely a product of weather - and always have been. How many U.S. farmers (heroes IMO) have been flooded out or droughted-out / heat baked and lost their crops??? You think those things have no effect on food prices??? Those types of events are on the increase - so insurance rates for anything weather-affected are going up. They happen in both R & D administrations. No one controls the weather. (Of course these increases in devastating weather events are all fake news, right???) Tell that to farmers who've lost income due to increasing severe weather events, and those who've lost homes & businesses to more & stronger hurricanes, deluge rainfall / flooding, etc. No president can flip a switch and make all these things happy-happy & all resolved.

By any real financial experts' assessment, the reasons for today's inflation are - the remaining effects of the global Covid pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is / was a huge player in global food production, particularly wheat & other grains. Since the b'trd Putin invaded to try to rebuild the old Soviet Union empire, Ukraine's ability to grow & ship grains at the pace before the Russian invasion has been cut way down. So that affected world grain prices in the global marketplace. Any other global grain producers raised prices because of increased demand / shorter supply. Duh.

The "supply chain" problems have largely been mitigated and global shipping is mostly back to normal - exception being the Middle East / Red Sea zone because of the Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking ships from all countries. But the claims of "supply-chain issues" are mainly false reasons to keep prices artificially higher. No business is going to voluntarily lower prices when the "supply-chain" smoke screen is readily available. This info comes from real investment and economic folks who do the investing and movement of money. I read their articles and interviews every day. If you gents think they're all liars, why do you have your money invested with them in your 401-k's, pensions, IRA's, mutual funds, etc.???

 

[jsasker007]

But they did change the definition of RECESSION so that we won't be in one while sloppy joey baby is the sitting resident. That seems like slight of hand to me. Not to mention dirty and dishonest.

 

[Angus 1895]

The federal deficit is increased $100,000 every second.

Wingstop and chipotle are definitely reporting a positive outcome compared to most.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

But they did change the definition of RECESSION so that we won't be in one while sloppy joey baby is the sitting resident. That seems like slight of hand to me. Not to mention dirty and dishonest.

I'm not angry or feeling argumentative, friend - just sharing some info.

We aren't in a recession - by anyone's measure. Almost all investment managers say we avoided one, and they don't think we'll have one. Jobs are plentiful, consumer spending has been steady, and the stock market's ups & downs are normal. The last year was pretty good by historical measures in the stock markets. Wife and I had several funds go up over 30% - others in the 12 to 20% range - not gonna complain. Daily / weekly / monthly changes in stock prices are what the markets do - under any president. The markets went in the tank under Trump, mostly from the global Covid pandemic. Not Trump's fault directly, but the whole global market went down. There hasn't been such a global pandemic for over 100 years. The market effects are still being felt - globally - not just here in the U.S.

If anyone cares to look at stock market charts showing the returns over the last 10 years or more, when the Covid pandemic broke out, the charts all went in the crapper. Before that, they went up & down as they always do over a number of administrations. The Covid pandemic screwed up the global economy, not just the U.S. economy. Everything didn't / won't spring back like the flip of a switch once the worst was over. No one's economy recovers instantly - it takes some time as investments in businesses (globally) slowly get back on track, and fear gradually relents in the minds of business leaders. Business leaders generally like to "read the tea leaves" a bit before committing to investing millions or billions of new dollars after such a global event as Covid. They're cautious under "normal" circumstances - to say nothing of Covid's effects on the global economy. No overnight positive fireworks.

Today's biggest worries (according to investment pros) is global instability. We're part of a global economy, so if something happens "over there", it'll affect all countries' markets and economies. Threats of war on several fronts. I hope they don't happen.

Have a good day, all.

 

[jsasker007]

I'm not angry or feeling argumentative, friend - just sharing some info.

We aren't in a recession - by anyone's measure. Almost all investment managers say we avoided one, and they don't think we'll have one. Jobs are plentiful, consumer spending has been steady, and the stock market's ups & downs are normal. The last year was pretty good by historical measures in the stock markets. Wife and I had several funds go up over 30% - others in the 12 to 20% range - not gonna complain. Daily / weekly / monthly changes in stock prices are what the markets do - under any president. The markets went in the tank under Trump, mostly from the global Covid pandemic. Not Trump's fault directly, but the whole global market went down. There hasn't been such a global pandemic for over 100 years. The market effects are still being felt - globally - not just here in the U.S.

If anyone cares to look at stock market charts showing the returns over the last 10 years or more, when the Covid pandemic broke out, the charts all went in the crapper. Before that, they went up & down as they always do over a number of administrations. The Covid pandemic screwed up the global economy, not just the U.S. economy. Everything didn't / won't spring back like the flip of a switch once the worst was over. No one's economy recovers instantly - it takes some time as investments in businesses (globally) slowly get back on track, and fear gradually relents in the minds of business leaders. Business leaders generally like to "read the tea leaves" a bit before committing to investing millions or billions of new dollars after such a global event as Covid. They're cautious under "normal" circumstances - to say nothing of Covid's effects on the global economy. No overnight positive fireworks.

Today's biggest worries (according to investment pros) is global instability. We're part of a global economy, so if something happens "over there", it'll affect all countries' markets and economies. Threats of war on several fronts. I hope they don't happen.

Have a good day, all.

I'm glad you were able to do well during the tougher financial times but when it comes to the state of our economy, jobs, and who is or isn't responsible for our current status, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree there. Your mind can't be changed and neither can mine. Supposedly war is good for the economy but I'd rather not find out first hand I guess. Government officials shouldn't be allowed to own stocks in my opinion and I think if government officials had to actually fight in wars like real soldiers we probably wouldn't see any more wars. jmo

 

[jsasker007]

Investing in defense might be a good choice the way things are going right now.

 

[Tree Spud]

Calling energy and food volatile isn't my word - it's from those in the investment / economic spheres. And it is not an elitist sleight-of-hand trick either - through both R & D administrations, energy and food prices have been separated from "core inflation" numbers. You can't change history & facts to make a partisan point of argument. Energy prices have been up & down in both R & D administrations. It's a global marketplace - not controlled by any American president. Food prices are largely a product of weather - and always have been. How many U.S. farmers (heroes IMO) have been flooded out or droughted-out / heat baked and lost their crops??? You think those things have no effect on food prices??? Those types of events are on the increase - so insurance rates for anything weather-affected are going up. They happen in both R & D administrations. No one controls the weather. (Of course these increases in devastating weather events are all fake news, right???) Tell that to farmers who've lost income due to increasing severe weather events, and those who've lost homes & businesses to more & stronger hurricanes, deluge rainfall / flooding, etc. No president can flip a switch and make all these things happy-happy & all resolved.

By any real financial experts' assessment, the reasons for today's inflation are - the remaining effects of the global Covid pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is / was a huge player in global food production, particularly wheat & other grains. Since the b'trd Putin invaded to try to rebuild the old Soviet Union empire, Ukraine's ability to grow & ship grains at the pace before the Russian invasion has been cut way down. So that affected world grain prices in the global marketplace. Any other global grain producers raised prices because of increased demand / shorter supply. Duh.

The "supply chain" problems have largely been mitigated and global shipping is mostly back to normal - exception being the Middle East / Red Sea zone because of the Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking ships from all countries. But the claims of "supply-chain issues" are mainly false reasons to keep prices artificially higher. No business is going to voluntarily lower prices when the "supply-chain" smoke screen is readily available. This info comes from real investment and economic folks who do the investing and movement of money. I read their articles and interviews every day. If you gents think they're all liars, why do you have your money invested with them in your 401-k's, pensions, IRA's, mutual funds, etc.???

The real issue with the current inflation (it's not 3%) and attempting to deal with it is, Biden's policies are in direct conflict with the Fed's rate cut efforts. The only real way to deal with high inflation is to in effect "crash" the economy to reduce spending. When spending exceeds supply, or is artificially propped up by injections of cash into the economy, that is when prices will rise.

I won't even get into all his distavorous labor, environmental, energy & socialistic policies, etc. that are damaging the economy and supply chain.

Biden has injected ~$7 trillion dollars into the economy the past few years. This artificial money supply has essentially negated the Fed's belt tightening measures by raising rates. The inflation rate is such a concern to the Fed, they are now projecting no rate cuts this and the possibility of a rate hike. That clearly show that they are very concerned about the economy and their efforts to reduce inflation.

Regarding Kudlow, I listen to him regularly. At no time in last 12+ months have I heard him say that the economy is good. What i have heard him comment is that the stock market has been surprisingly good despite the current economic issues.

If you think that companies are just keeping prices high to screw the consumer for extra margin, then you have never owned a business or been involved market driven price analysis and profit model development strategies. Prices always have ad inflection point on the supply/revenue curve where when they hit a certain point, when prices hit a certain point revenue will drop as consumers will look at different options.

If you want to believe the talking heads on the left that's fine. The reason that Biden and the WH have stopped talking about Bidenomics, is that it has failed and consumers know it and are feeling a lot of pain financially.

 

[Angus 1895]

I don’t think defense investment is wise.

Remember it’s customer is the government

 

[jsasker007]

I don’t think defense investment is wise.

Remember it’s customer is the government

I see what you're saying but the government doesn't seem to have a problem spending the unlimited supply of our tax dollars.

 

[Jerry-B-WI]

The federal deficit is increased $100,000 every second.

And nobody in, or that has ever been in Washington has ever done anything to stop the deficit from growing. They may have tried to balance the budget, but have never done anything to pay down the debt.

 

[hunts_with_stick]

If you think that companies are just keeping prices high to screw the consumer for extra margin, then you have never owned a business or been involved market driven price analysis and profit model development strategies. Prices always have ad inflection point on the supply/revenue curve where when they hit a certain point, when prices hit a certain point revenue will drop as consumers will look at different options.

Some definitely are. Not small businesses, but big businesses. Other then that agree with everything you stated. I too thought that at first until I witnessed it first hand.

 

[bwoods11]

The economy is not doing well for the middle to lower class. Inflation hits them the worst ! My son has a good job at Bobcat, but has thoughts on downgrading his vehicle due to high interest rates, higher insurance and higher gas prices… inflation is a killer for the young generation!

Young people cannot afford a home, rent is high, food prices are high. It’s frustrating and Biden/Harris are getting a lot of the blame & they should !! ( it’s a fact).

The last President (Trump) had low inflation, low gas prices and food prices were manageable. Just facts …

Anything else is just an excuse for Biden . He owns this, he the President during the record inflationary period.

 

[OakSeeds]

Politicians love to blame each other regarding the deficit ..... read this one first ... https://www.politifact.com/factchec...checking-joe-biden-on-debt-accumulated-under/

then read this one ... https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/ .... a brutal slog

much of the spending resulting in deficit increases is out of a President' direct control ... often dictated by legislation passed many years before his administration

 

[jsasker007]

I've got a decent amount of shares in TELLurian. LNG that's been driven down by the push to rid the country of such things because it's not electric. When they give up on 100% electric I plan on making a good profit on my LNG stocks. jmo

 

[Tree Spud]

Some definitely are. Not small businesses, but big businesses. Other then that agree with everything you stated. I too thought that at first until I witnessed it first hand.

I don't necessarily agree that big business' are price gouging. I am sure some in both class have tried to price gouge but market pressure. will come into play. Many large fast food chains have tried that and they are getting serious pushback and pull back from consumers. When MccyD's bumped their prices, consumers screened. Some MccyD's now had to bring back the $5 value meal.

When I still was an owner, the equipment we made was 80% stainless. In the 18 month period between covid and the supply chain issues, the price of raw stainless went up 343%. That wasn't greed, that was because with bad relations with Russia, and that their nickle production is high as a supplier. In that time we saw stainless components & bar stock jump 2.5 - 3 times in cost. Leads times went from typical 2-4 weeks, to 10-12 weeks and some items were not even available. Simple hardware fasteners (bolts, nuts and washers) that we bought from Grainger, fastenal, etc. ran out of supply. We were forced to scrounge hardware stores so we could complete production.

The other big issue that hurt many large process industries (steel, minerals, energy, paper making, etc.) was that the stupid covid restrictions that were placed on these firms. They tried making paper mills, steel mills, etc., to treat their work areas like sanitary food grade work environments. A lot of these company's had to shut down multiple production lines and only keep 1 production line open.

The other cost issue that popped up was a shortage of labor. Employee salaries and hourly rates were skyrocketing because people were declining to work because of all the Gov't handouts. Normal labor costs are 25% - 30% of company's operating costs. They went up too 40% which definitely had an impact on production/service costs. Because labor was short, this also impacted companies production output negatively impacting the supply chain.

Enough of my rant Not arguing, JMHO & experience here and trying to add some perspective.

 

[Foggy47]

^ Well stated Tree Spud. Like you I have seen raw material price spikes and swings in my times. I remember selling metals based on "price in effect at time of shipment." Many companies (large and small) have trouble controlling their supply costs.....and often must price forward on unknown commodity prices / costs. Plus you never know what the government might regulate or impose on your company at any given time. How do you plan forward in such an economy?