Angus 1895
5 year old buck +
Green Giant was 85% down earlier today
Stock Market is the bottom in?
- Thread starter Peplin Creek
- Start date
Inflation ... and attribution theory (a soul to bless or an arse to kick) or, as some might say, the blame game. R. Reagan is/was one of the most highly respected among post 1950s Presidents, yet, his administration enjoyed only one year out of eight when inflation was less than 3.25% ... his average over 8 years was 4.6%. 1974, 1979, and 1980 are among the top 10 years with regard to inflation when it was over 11% annually... poor ol Jimmy Carter. Obama was President from 2010-2017 and he enjoyed an average inflation rate of about 1.4% through most of his tenure. Trump enjoyed relatively low inflation rates with an average of 1.90%. Did Reagan and Carter screw it up? Were Obama and Trump miracle workers? So, 2 fellows from the red party and 2 from the blue group
.Or perhaps there were other factors that largely explain why Carter got snookered (1979 & 1980) and Trump appeared to be a wizard.
Consider J. Carter (ignore the hostage situation); what occurred during the 1970's that might have impacted inflation? What might have occurred during the Trump years that might have favored low inflation rates? What do you think might have accounted for these differences BEYOND saying it was the result of how each president "managed" the economy.
.Or perhaps there were other factors that largely explain why Carter got snookered (1979 & 1980) and Trump appeared to be a wizard.
Consider J. Carter (ignore the hostage situation); what occurred during the 1970's that might have impacted inflation? What might have occurred during the Trump years that might have favored low inflation rates? What do you think might have accounted for these differences BEYOND saying it was the result of how each president "managed" the economy.
TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
b116757
5 year old buck +
Oil prices largely brought on by incredibly weak presidents with loonytoons policies both Carter and Biden fall into this category it took RR 8 years to correct the damage Carter brought about it was so bad that time. There are I’m sure some other factors that made a difference it the time frame so Biden’s destruction this go around may or may not take as long to repair once we get pretty much any other warm body in the county in the presidents chair besides this fool we currently have. I sure could use a few mean tweets about now but likely anybody that’s not an abject fool in the White House would go a long ways to helping the situation.
Angus 1895
5 year old buck +
I thought inflation is caused by government debt?
b116757
5 year old buck +
Government spending is a big contributing factor to inflation I think the debt is simply an effect of their runaway deficit spending. The oil prices skyrocketing have the largest effect on the economy by far which can be laid directly at Biden’s feet.
Bowsnbucks
5 year old buck +
Just some recent info on the U.S.'s role in global stability & its effects on markets - from Fortune Magazine, a business-friendly, business advice publication.
Read this article with comments from Richard Haass, who was on the Council for Foreign Relations for years under a couple presidents. He's been an experienced voice in U.S. / Foreign relations, and has superior perspective on what matters for the U.S., and the consequences of wavering U.S. support for its allies around the world. He points out the danger of an unstable U.S. government, political violence here in the U.S., and how enemy states such as Russia and China may very well take advantage of internal political division. Haass looks at the cold, hard facts of the U.S place in the World Order. Things we should all be concerned about - regardless of political affiliation.
Read this article with comments from Richard Haass, who was on the Council for Foreign Relations for years under a couple presidents. He's been an experienced voice in U.S. / Foreign relations, and has superior perspective on what matters for the U.S., and the consequences of wavering U.S. support for its allies around the world. He points out the danger of an unstable U.S. government, political violence here in the U.S., and how enemy states such as Russia and China may very well take advantage of internal political division. Haass looks at the cold, hard facts of the U.S place in the World Order. Things we should all be concerned about - regardless of political affiliation.
jsasker007
5 year old buck +
Pretty sure Trump has a better understanding of how to manage a budget. I don't think we'd be sending money to every country who puts their hand out and the southern border would be closed. These are all things that would help steer our economy in the right direction. Wouldn't be making someone's neighbor pay for college that they never went to either. Just a few things that would help morale of the citizens of this country in my opinion.
OIL ... an indispensable commodity for developed and developing nations. It's traded on an international level and strongly influenced by the laws of supply and demand (price becomes the allocator, thereby linked to inflation). As a petroleum-dependent nation the U. S. uses gobs of oil for transportation alone (jet fuel, diesel for trucks (interstate commerce and agricultural/construction equipment), gasoline kerosene, LPG and heating oil, , and a gigantic group of agricultural, industrial and consumer products (think plastics alone) too numerous to list. It is influenced much more by geopolitical events than many folks may realize that can have strong effects on the perceptions of folks regarding the performance of any president. Let's consider the Carter-Raegan , Obama-Trump years in light of disruptive influences - oil shocks, political movements, wars - in the middle east. In 1972, a gallon of gasoline cost around $.36 and increased (tripled) to around $1.20 by 1980, largely because of 9 days of war. In 1967 Israel fought a 6-day war with Egypt, Jordan and Syria ... and then occupied the Gaza Strip, West Bank, Golan Heights and East Jerusalem. When the occupied areas were not given up in 1973, the 3-day Yom Kippur war between Israel, Egypt and Syria resulted and the U.S. supported Israel with arms and equipment. Since the Arab countries apparently were reluctant to confront America militarily, OPEC invoked an embargo on oil to western nations which quickly resulted in the quadrupling of the price of oil. What was largely a political decision on OPEC's part rankled the oil market throughout the world. Even though oil production had declined during the Nixon-Ford administrations, both consumption and imports (foreign dependency) grew during the Nixon-Ford years, reaching an all-time high in Ford's last year. In 1979 the Iranian revolution - it shut down the country's oil production reducing world supply by 7% - occurred and the price of crude oil tripled. Simultaneously, the Iran-Iraq war during this period roiled the oil market further. By the end of carter's term in 1980, inflation was above 14% (summer) and interest rates (mortgage) were 13.74 %. in 1980. The Iran hostages issue probably sealed Carter's fate, but geopolitical decisions resulting in an embargo, a revolution and a military conflict among oil producing nations certainly didn't do much for his reelection possibilities in light of the resulting inflation and interest rates. Consequently, President Carter and his wife were off to help less advantaged folks by building houses.
-tbc-
-tbc-
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By the time President Raegan took over in 1981, a unique economic term called "Stagflation" had been bantied about and it was characterized by a sluggish/low growth economy, high inflation, and high unemployment. Historically, inflation and unemployment were believed to operate somewhat at odds - actions to reduce inflation might increase unemployment and moves to enhance employment (govt. programs?) would likely cause an uptick in inflation. A recession with 8.9 % inflation (cooled from 1980) and 8.8 % unemployment would be tamed - he believed - by Reganomics; a 4-prt program promoting tax cuts (top marginal rate from from 70% to 28 % via 2 tax cuts) capital gains cuts to 20% to stimulate investment and grow the economy), increased military spending, balance the budget and reduce govt. spending, reduce govt. regulation and tighten the money supply to reduce inflation. As a short-run strategy to reduce inflation and lower nominal interest rates, the U.S. borrowed both domestically and abroad to cover the Federal budget deficits, raising the Nat'l debt from $997 billion to $2.85 trillion. This caused the U.S. to move from the world's largest international creditor to the world's largest debtor nation. Reagan budgets (FY 1982–89) averaged 21.6% GDP, roughly tied with President Obama for the highest among recent Presidents; however, each had to deal with a serious recession early in their administration. By 1988, the final year in the Reagan Presidency, inflation was a little thorny at 4.14 %, unemployment was 5.3%, and an annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% ... 5th highest in the 1988-2021 period. In terms of the 3 legs of the stagflation stool, he pretty much knocked 2 of them out of the park .... excluding inflation.
Perhaps Raegan's greatest criticism was that he increased the Nat'l Debt by 180+%, Many argue he promoted income inequality via tax cuts for the very wealthy, and GHW Bush called his supply-side, trickle-down economic perspective voodoo economics. He certainly left office with the economy in better shape than when he arrived. A minor hiccup in his administration was the Iran-Contra affair..... a bigger hiccup was getting shot by Mr. Hinckley.
we have now dispensed with the 1st two Presidents for comparison .... Dem. Carter followed by GOP. Reagan
Poor Carter only had a 4-yr term; we don't know if he would have faired better with 8 next up ... Obama and Trump
tbc
Perhaps Raegan's greatest criticism was that he increased the Nat'l Debt by 180+%, Many argue he promoted income inequality via tax cuts for the very wealthy, and GHW Bush called his supply-side, trickle-down economic perspective voodoo economics. He certainly left office with the economy in better shape than when he arrived. A minor hiccup in his administration was the Iran-Contra affair..... a bigger hiccup was getting shot by Mr. Hinckley.
we have now dispensed with the 1st two Presidents for comparison .... Dem. Carter followed by GOP. Reagan
Poor Carter only had a 4-yr term; we don't know if he would have faired better with 8 next up ... Obama and Trump
tbc
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TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
inflation from 14% to 4 % is not "knocking out of the park?"
At any rate, I miss the days of VooDoo economics
bill
TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
as long as the demand for oil remains the same, and, since the demand for a product like gasoline is pretty inelastic you are correct
P.S. ... point of clarification ... in your response 2 posts above, I referred to economic growth and unemployment as the home-run legs ... inflation was excluded
Foggy47
5 year old buck +
I beg to differ. Maybe that's not "knocking it out of the park" to you......but at that time in the USA economy.....that was a major achievement and put the economy back on solid ground. Don't never say bad about the Gipper! Grin.
TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
agree
the quote contained a question mark
I personally thought he did "knock it out of the park"
Mr Reagan was the last lion of the twentieth century and easily the best president of my 69 years
bill
TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
inflation 14% to 4% is at least a ground rule double
Supply:up
Price: down
Economics is not that hard
This isn't planting trees
bill
jsasker007
5 year old buck +
TSLA. Never bet against ELON MUSK.
