Buck numbers year to year

Buck numbers can be effected by lots of things all we can do is provide better management on our properties to possibly hold deer on us and provide better nutrition along with some herd management which for me is I simply don’t shoot doe’s. I have no objection to shooting them but feel higher doe numbers on me pull in bucks from surrounding areas during the rut.
 
In the north, and I'm sure especially true in the UP, winter is a huge factor! Not just how cold or how much snow, but also for how long. And if you have any farm fields in your area what they plant will be a big factor also. Several fields by me that have been corn or beans almost forever it seems were planted to different crops last year. I don't know why but I do know I didn't have nearly as many deer around in the fall.
 
In the north, and I'm sure especially true in the UP, winter is a huge factor! Not just how cold or how much snow, but also for how long. And if you have any farm fields in your area what they plant will be a big factor also. Several fields by me that have been corn or beans almost forever it seems were planted to different crops last year. I don't know why but I do know I didn't have nearly as many deer around in the fall.
Winters are a huge factor for sure. My property is in the heart of lake effect snow belts and it usually doesn’t break until April. Last winter was pretty tough as we had a very late spring thaw and several icing events in feb/March that favors the predators but the previous fall was unseasonably warm and long so the deer went in to winter healthy and fat. I remember being on the property in March doing some scouting and I was walking and even driving my atv on top of 24 inches of snow from all the freezing rain. Predators thrive in those conditions. On a positive note, I’ve definitely noticed more twin fawns this year so in my opinion the deer did just fine last winter. Twin fawns in the bigger woods areas of the UP aren’t nearly as common as areas further south. The deer in my area also migrate somewhat so I know that plays into things to a certain extent. Although I have definitely noticed a couple unique bucks and even does with unique markings that returned to the same areas in April. An old mature doe with faint spots along her spine is one example that stands out. Pretty interesting that they know where home is after traveling for who knows how many miles. It’s possible with the migrations, my property will be a crapshoot each and every year and it’s something I will either have to accept or put it up for sale.
 
Encouraging. @gunfun13 posted about how he got the co-op conversation started in another thread recently, I'm curious how the conversation started for you and what the talking points and general agreements were among participants
To keep from hi-hacking this thread, I have started a new one about getting the co-op started. My experience Starting a Landowner Co-Op
 
Hey guys. For the guys that run lots of cameras on your deer hunting parcels, how do buck numbers usually compare year over year and has anyone else experienced a significant drop-off since Covid? Not looking for specifics just a general idea. Bear with me as this may get long winded…

I purchased my 120 acres in the western UP in January of 2020. I’m surrounded by other 80-160 acre parcels. I had scouted that particular area the previous couple years even forgoing opening days of hunting season to drive around to see where and how many guys were hunting, how many camps had people and just how hunter pressure was spread out. I walked my property several times before deciding it was the property I envisioned. Surrounding Hunting pressure was extremely light as most camps sat empty, some of them even looking run-down. Things would change with the Covid surge!

That 1st year was great. There was buck sign all over the property and we had 15 different bucks on camera. Nothing huge but a few respectable UP bucks nonetheless. I harvested my 1st buck from the property that 1st year, a heavy, dark racked 7 point that I was thrilled with. After I took care of my buck, I drove around to check out the area and scout some national forest close by. I could not believe how things changed in a years time. All the camps were full. Neighboring properties that hadn’t been hunted in close to 10 years according to the previous owner of my property. I couldn’t believe it. It’s great in the grand scheme of things and good for the local economies but what a change that I wasn’t prepared for!

Last year we ended up getting 8 different bucks on camera with only 2 being mature and my group got the big skunk. We go in way before daylight and don’t get back to camp until well after dark. The 1st 3-4 days are almost 12 hour sits.

Fast forward to this year and it’s looking even worse. 5 different bucks so far on camera and the biggest 2 are smallish 2.5 yo.

My questions mainly being, has anyone else noticed a drastic decline in bucks since Covid?

Are my food plots doing more harm than good? My 4 acres of plots are 2nd year plots but the bucks used them during daylight last year. We don’t hunt plots, just movement between them. We only had 1 failed plot the 1st year and I really didn’t do much work on the property.

I honestly don’t believe it’s anything we’ve done but possibly the mature animals don’t like all the activity during the spring and summer. I firmly believe the buck numbers have just plummeted from increased hunting pressure. It’s possible things will just go in cycles. I’m not trying to come off as jerk that thinks other people shouldn’t hunt their property or that they shouldn’t shoot smaller bucks. People can do whatever they choose as long as it’s legal. I will simply put myself in a better position to succeed in accomplishing my goals of being able to hunt mature bucks consistently. If that means selling and finding something that will help me accomplish my goals, so be it. Thanks!

We have about 400 acres with wireless silent black flash cameras with solar that run 24/7/365. Battery swaps are more than a year apart in most cases so there is little camera related human activity. Camera avoidance from visible flash, sound, or human activity around cameras is sex/age biased. So, without a high end camera network like this, it is hard to do year to year trending of mature bucks. Just because you don't have pics, doesn't mean the bucks are not there.

My second comment would be that if mature buck numbers are decreasing due to pressure, it is much more likely it is due to pressure on your land than neighboring properties. In fact, a sanctuary of 100 acres can be a hotspot even when surrounding land is heavily hunted.

My next thought is that your goals may not be aligned well with your scale. I like to use 1,000 acres as a proxy for a typical home range of a buck in average habitat. It is often somewhat smaller in great habit and can be quite a bit larger in poor habitat. Bucks often go significantly outside their home range for excursions and during the rut. So, if young bucks are being targeted on properties surrounding your 120 acres, you can let every young buck walk and never see a mature buck.

I will also say that beyond the reliability of your camera network (presume it was perfect), there are higher frequency habitat changes that can impact the number of pictures you get. For example, a record acorn crop can impact deer for several years. For example on one military base I work with they do acorn surveys every year and weigh every deer harvested. You can see a direct correlation between the acorn survey one year and the average weight of yearling bucks the following year. This can really impact deer over time. In a year with a mast crop failure, not only is deer movement impacted (which can result in different picture counts), their need for food the next year because of entering winter with lower weights, and they may use food plots more. This is just one example of a high frequency habitat change.

So, I would say there are a whole host of reasons your mature buck pics may change from year to year. They may actually be using your property less or just not being captured in pics.

As for your food plots doing more harm than good, if your goal is to shoot mature bucks, they probably are. Since you are way under scaled to do QDM (improving heard health and age structure), they only value in food plots is to direct deer movement. My objectives are different than your and much more of a balance, but if my only objective was to shoot mature bucks, I'd clear-cut the 120 acres, burn it, plant it in pines, and stay off it for a couple years. I'd then only hunt the periphery during the rut. In 10 years or so when the pines begin to canopy, I'd cut them for pulp and repeat the process. I might look at getting two 120 acre properties and do the same thing with the second at a different cycle so I always had one to hunt. I would do no other active management on either property.

That is my perspective for what it is worth.

Thanks,

Jcak
 
Some good info. I completely understand cameras tell a very small percentage of the story. We don’t check cameras very often. I’m running 10 cell cameras, most with solar panels and running about 8 regular cameras that have been checked 2 times since April/May. I’m also basing some of my ideas on hunting, scouting, shining, etc. not just trail cameras. I have been on the property a lot doing food plot/habitat work the last 2 years and I think that might be the biggest contributor. The mature deer just don’t have to put up with all the commotion, there’s good cover all over the area.

Not much at all for acorns in my area that I’m aware of but I’ll have to look into it more. I have a few oaks on my property but they sure don’t produce much that I’ve seen. This year was the most acorns I’ve seen and I would’ve had a hard time filling a 5 gallon pail.
I think overall the decline is just a combination of a bunch of factors. Predators, winters, migration, activity on the property and maybe a decent bump in hunting pressure that 1st year. Maybe all those bucks on camera in 2020 is the anomaly and what I’m seeing now is more on par. I think for now I’m just gonna stay the course and keep at the habitat work, hunt smart and enjoy my time.

Just for shits and giggles I posted a list of bucks I’ve had on camera the 1st 3 years of owning the property. Simply because I know my original post seems ridiculous in some ways. But When I look at the list, it’s clear to me that something is off. I thought maybe some other people have dealt with the some of the same things in kind of the same property ownership timeline and had some ideas.
 

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Some good info. I completely understand cameras tell a very small percentage of the story. We don’t check cameras very often. I’m running 10 cell cameras, most with solar panels and running about 8 regular cameras that have been checked 2 times since April/May. I’m also basing some of my ideas on hunting, scouting, shining, etc. not just trail cameras. I have been on the property a lot doing food plot/habitat work the last 2 years and I think that might be the biggest contributor. The mature deer just don’t have to put up with all the commotion, there’s good cover all over the area.

Not much at all for acorns in my area that I’m aware of but I’ll have to look into it more. I have a few oaks on my property but they sure don’t produce much that I’ve seen. This year was the most acorns I’ve seen and I would’ve had a hard time filling a 5 gallon pail.
I think overall the decline is just a combination of a bunch of factors. Predators, winters, migration, activity on the property and maybe a decent bump in hunting pressure that 1st year. Maybe all those bucks on camera in 2020 is the anomaly and what I’m seeing now is more on par. I think for now I’m just gonna stay the course and keep at the habitat work, hunt smart and enjoy my time.

Just for shits and giggles I posted a list of bucks I’ve had on camera the 1st 3 years of owning the property. Simply because I know my original post seems ridiculous in some ways. But When I look at the list, it’s clear to me that something is off. I thought maybe some other people have dealt with the some of the same things in kind of the same property ownership timeline and had some ideas.
One more point on cams. Most low end cams miss a lot. I can recall a test years ago where a reconyx (fairly high end at the time) and a bunch of couple hundred dollar cams were placed side by side. The difference in picture count of deer between the cameras was amazing. Many of the low end cams missed a lot.

Beyond, cams, keep in mind that mast crop was just an example of how season changes in habitat and food sources can impact picture counts from year to year. One year a cam happens to be on or near a food source that deer need and you get lots of pics. With differences both annually and seasonally in food availability or predator movement or some other factor, the following year one may get few pics. The deer may have left the property or they may just be relating to it differently.

All I'm saying is that with my extensive network of higher end cams, there is still variability from year to year, especially in mature buck pics. One more thing to keep in mind is that it is not uncommon for someone to shoot a mature buck on our place that was never captured on any camera. It could be that was just the luck of the draw and that buck was using our land regularly and we did not know or that the buck was on an excursion looking for does and had never been on our land before. It is hard to tell.

When you talk about an overall decline based on that list of factors, I would expect to see the impacts of predation on recruitment before it is seen on mature bucks. But you are right, there are generally multiple factors involved.

Thanks,

Jack
 
On average we usually see 7-9 differnt bucks on the QRT. 4 basket yearling type, 2 -3 2yr old and 1 or 2 3yr old. And about once every 3yrs we get 1 that pushes above the 150in 4yr mark.
 
I don’t think I’ll ever have a 150 on camera in the UP but I’m ok with that. If it ever happens that would be pretty awesome!

One thing I noticed recently was all the food plots not being touched nearly as much in front of cameras. Coincidence? So if the does and fawns are wary of my cameras, I sure as heck know the bucks are. One example that stands out is that I was getting a large number pictures of deer, including bucks skirting the edge across the food plot from my camera. Last time I was at the property, (I went to scout in the fresh snow, not something I typically do but wanted to learn more) I moved the camera and solar panel to get better pictures…. The deer are skirting the opposite edge where the camera was. Kind of funny honestly.

Maybe I need to do a better job of wearing rubber gloves and picking out better trees for cameras, solar panels, etc. I always figured my scent would be gone in 2-3 days and it’s not a big deal but I’m gonna try and be more careful and see if things change. Also, What cameras are you guys having the best luck with for not spooking deer. I’m running 2 browning cells, 8 tactacams of different models and 1 exodus cell. Not really sure on what flash they all are.
 
I’m on the opposite end of the spectrum about cams. I don’t think they miss much if positioned in a place that casts a wide net. I have two big feeders (I don’t hunt over or near them) for holding deer hopefully. I guarantee since I’ve been running cams in august I haven’t missed a regular buck on my place. Sure an occasional drive by may get by without stopping by but those are luck anyway. You keep cameras out long enough, and enough of them, you will catch all the bucks you have using your place especially if it’s over bait, scrape or a good vantage point of a plot. Also I don’t think cams spook a deer to the point they avoid them. I think they may get nervous initially but eventually they deal with it
 
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I don’t think I’ll ever have a 150 on camera in the UP but I’m ok with that. If it ever happens that would be pretty awesome!

One thing I noticed recently was all the food plots not being touched nearly as much in front of cameras. Coincidence? So if the does and fawns are wary of my cameras, I sure as heck know the bucks are. One example that stands out is that I was getting a large number pictures of deer, including bucks skirting the edge across the food plot from my camera. Last time I was at the property, (I went to scout in the fresh snow, not something I typically do but wanted to learn more) I moved the camera and solar panel to get better pictures…. The deer are skirting the opposite edge where the camera was. Kind of funny honestly.

Maybe I need to do a better job of wearing rubber gloves and picking out better trees for cameras, solar panels, etc. I always figured my scent would be gone in 2-3 days and it’s not a big deal but I’m gonna try and be more careful and see if things change. Also, What cameras are you guys having the best luck with for not spooking deer. I’m running 2 browning cells, 8 tactacams of different models and 1 exodus cell. Not really sure on what flash they all are.
Avoidance and it biases what you see on cam.
 
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I don’t think I’ll ever have a 150 on camera in the UP but I’m ok with that. If it ever happens that would be pretty awesome!

One thing I noticed recently was all the food plots not being touched nearly as much in front of cameras. Coincidence? So if the does and fawns are wary of my cameras, I sure as heck know the bucks are. One example that stands out is that I was getting a large number pictures of deer, including bucks skirting the edge across the food plot from my camera. Last time I was at the property, (I went to scout in the fresh snow, not something I typically do but wanted to learn more) I moved the camera and solar panel to get better pictures…. The deer are skirting the opposite edge where the camera was. Kind of funny honestly.

Maybe I need to do a better job of wearing rubber gloves and picking out better trees for cameras, solar panels, etc. I always figured my scent would be gone in 2-3 days and it’s not a big deal but I’m gonna try and be more careful and see if things change. Also, What cameras are you guys having the best luck with for not spooking deer. I’m running 2 browning cells, 8 tactacams of different models and 1 exodus cell. Not really sure on what flash they all are.
There are a couple of threads on this from last year or the year before. I think I even suspended a survey on this forum about what people thought spooked dear in the ways of trail cameras.

Based on what I've seen with our farms, deer personality, the flash type, recording mode, and camera height are the most important things. I would say that we run quite a few more cameras per acre than most. More than likely, it's not the presence of trail cameras that's causing fewer deer observations. It's probably just plain old more disruption on your place than on the neighbors.
 
There are a couple of threads on this from last year or the year before. I think I even suspended a survey on this forum about what people thought spooked dear in the ways of trail cameras.

Based on what I've seen with our farms, deer personality, the flash type, recording mode, and camera height are the most important things. I would say that we run quite a few more cameras per acre than most. More than likely, it's not the presence of trail cameras that's causing fewer deer observations. It's probably just plain old more disruption on your place than on the neighbors.

I agree that the specifics of the cameras don't impact deer observations in general, but they greatly bias what the observations are. I did a red blob vs black flash comparison with silent (dual lens) cameras) with no bait and the difference was striking. With red blob, I may get one or two good pics of a mature buck and that would be it. After that, I would get just as many total pics but they would only be young deer and does. The mature bucks did not leave. With photoshop clean-up of the pictures, I could often tell there was some mature buck just on the fringe of the flash range. It did not spook the buck or anything. They just are more cautious and let younger deer venture closer as they do in many situations. As a result, I got many fewer pictures of identifiable mature bucks. With black flash, things were very different. It was as if the camera was not there. Mature bucks were photographed multiple times at a variety of distances of the camera.

You will see similar results comparing a dual lens design (silent) to a mechanical filter (slight noise) design camera.

Having said that, I'm not suggesting that this is the only, or even primary factor. i think you are right that human activity around the year can impact how mature bucks move and where they feel most comfortable. Outside the rut when sex dominates, they generally favor security over food quality. Food can become more of a driver in the north when deer have to make it through tough winters. In my area (zone 7a), winters are normally only a factor for young deer that don't have reserves built up yet.

Thanks,

Jack
 
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I think this kind of falls in line with this thread. One of my good friends bought several hundred acres here in PA back in 2019. Threw some cameras out and there were some true giants on cam for this part of the country. Multiple 150" deer and a plentiful supply of bucks of younger age classes. They hunted hard that first year and ended up empty handed. Heading into 2020 they made the decision to get very invested in the food plot game. Pushed down acres of timber, planted numerous plots, and installed stands everywhere. Things just kept going downhill despite their best efforts. Think they killed 2 dinks last year and they're all excited this year about a 2.5 year old this season.

In high hunter density states, I've found over the years that treating an entire property as sanctuary is key. You look at my friends above and all they did was bump the deer into the neighbors. Here in PA, with so many hunters, my friends essentially just put on a deer drive every Saturday morning before sunrise. The neighbors probably sit around laughing every year while they kill bucks on their tiny slivers of land.

My parents 100 acre block of timber in PA probably gets about 100 different bucks that pass through every fall. A productive day hunting during the rut may yield sightings of 30+ bucks.
 
I think this kind of falls in line with this thread. One of my good friends bought several hundred acres here in PA back in 2019. Threw some cameras out and there were some true giants on cam for this part of the country. Multiple 150" deer and a plentiful supply of bucks of younger age classes. They hunted hard that first year and ended up empty handed. Heading into 2020 they made the decision to get very invested in the food plot game. Pushed down acres of timber, planted numerous plots, and installed stands everywhere. Things just kept going downhill despite their best efforts. Think they killed 2 dinks last year and they're all excited this year about a 2.5 year old this season.

In high hunter density states, I've found over the years that treating an entire property as sanctuary is key. You look at my friends above and all they did was bump the deer into the neighbors. Here in PA, with so many hunters, my friends essentially just put on a deer drive every Saturday morning before sunrise. The neighbors probably sit around laughing every year while they kill bucks on their tiny slivers of land.

My parents 100 acre block of timber in PA probably gets about 100 different bucks that pass through every fall. A productive day hunting during the rut may yield sightings of 30+ bucks.
Dang what county is that in. I saw 6 buck one day last year. I thought that was a good day. haha
 
I think this kind of falls in line with this thread. One of my good friends bought several hundred acres here in PA back in 2019. Threw some cameras out and there were some true giants on cam for this part of the country. Multiple 150" deer and a plentiful supply of bucks of younger age classes. They hunted hard that first year and ended up empty handed. Heading into 2020 they made the decision to get very invested in the food plot game. Pushed down acres of timber, planted numerous plots, and installed stands everywhere. Things just kept going downhill despite their best efforts. Think they killed 2 dinks last year and they're all excited this year about a 2.5 year old this season.

In high hunter density states, I've found over the years that treating an entire property as sanctuary is key. You look at my friends above and all they did was bump the deer into the neighbors. Here in PA, with so many hunters, my friends essentially just put on a deer drive every Saturday morning before sunrise. The neighbors probably sit around laughing every year while they kill bucks on their tiny slivers of land.

My parents 100 acre block of timber in PA probably gets about 100 different bucks that pass through every fall. A productive day hunting during the rut may yield sightings of 30+ bucks.

Good example! As I see it, habitat manipulation is a group of tools we apply to achieve different objectives. The first step after identifying objectives is to determine if you have sufficient resources to have a realistic chance of achieving them.

QDM requires scale and it is aimed at improving herd health including age structure. When achieved folks will generally have more mature bucks available than in most unmanaged areas. You chances of harvesting a mature buck may not be much better than some unmanaged areas. Habitat management is only one aspect of QDM. Harvest management is also required which is one reason such a large scale is required.

Habitat management can be used on smaller properties to make deer in general more huntable. Again, that does not mean it necessarily makes them more huntable for mature bucks. You can use it to help influence deer movement, but there are also things going on on nearby properties that are influencing deer movement at the same time. Our results are often not what we expect.

I completely agree that the most important factor for mature bucks is sanctuary in most cases. Sanctuary can be created, but it often exists before we dive in and we actually disrupt it.

I think many of us have a broader variety and mix of objectives.

Thanks,

Jack
 
I don’t think I’ll ever have a 150 on camera in the UP but I’m ok with that. If it ever happens that would be pretty awesome!

One thing I noticed recently was all the food plots not being touched nearly as much in front of cameras. Coincidence? So if the does and fawns are wary of my cameras, I sure as heck know the bucks are. One example that stands out is that I was getting a large number pictures of deer, including bucks skirting the edge across the food plot from my camera. Last time I was at the property, (I went to scout in the fresh snow, not something I typically do but wanted to learn more) I moved the camera and solar panel to get better pictures…. The deer are skirting the opposite edge where the camera was. Kind of funny honestly.

Maybe I need to do a better job of wearing rubber gloves and picking out better trees for cameras, solar panels, etc. I always figured my scent would be gone in 2-3 days and it’s not a big deal but I’m gonna try and be more careful and see if things change. Also, What cameras are you guys having the best luck with for not spooking deer. I’m running 2 browning cells, 8 tactacams of different models and 1 exodus cell. Not really sure on what flash they all are.

Tactacam OG and X reveals are red flash (also called low glow or red glow). SK and xB are “no glow”. Not sure on 2.0 and pro.

Browning has a variety as well. Original defender and defender ridgeline are no glow. Pro scout is red glow. Not sure on their new models.

Not sure on exodus.

“No glow” or “black flash” is a marketing term. I have many versions marketed as such and with almost all you can still see a faint glow if you are looking for it so it’s not an absolute thing. There is also typically settings options on the cam that contribute to how visible the flash is. That said, all of these are much less visible or obvious to me than a red flash.
 
My second comment would be that if mature buck numbers are decreasing due to pressure, it is much more likely it is due to pressure on your land than neighboring properties. In fact, a sanctuary of 100 acres can be a hotspot even when surrounding land is heavily hunted.

This is an aspect that has been of a lot of interest to me lately. In big woods settings with continuous blocks of timber I’m not sure I believe that deer can differentiate where the “safe” spot starts and ends. Especially if there are people hunting the borders and blowing wind into the next parcel. I could see how deer could differentiate from actual ground scent and disturbance from blown scent 80 yards away and over time come to feel less freaked out there.

It’s something I’ve been trying to figure out how I want to address on a part of my property where my neighbor sits the line and the predominant wind blows from his stand into the best potential bedding on my place.
 
Tactacam OG and X reveals are red flash (also called low glow or red glow). SK and xB are “no glow”. Not sure on 2.0 and pro.

Browning has a variety as well. Original defender and defender ridgeline are no glow. Pro scout is red glow. Not sure on their new models.

Not sure on exodus.

“No glow” or “black flash” is a marketing term. I have many versions marketed as such and with almost all you can still see a faint glow if you are looking for it so it’s not an absolute thing. There is also typically settings options on the cam that contribute to how visible the flash is. That said, all of these are much less visible or obvious to me than a red flash.

You are absolutely correct about "no glow" and "black flash" being marketing terms. There are several factors that go into whether a deer perceives a flash or not.

1) frequency (wavelength)
2) intensity
3) duration

Cheap cams may use the marketing terms and still be visible. Many have quite long durations. It is much cheaper to ramp up LEDs then take a pic and then ramp them down than it is to have a short duration flash that is well timed with the picture. It allows them to use cheaper image sensors leaving the shutter open for a longer duration to get more photons in. This is one reason we see more blurry night time photos on some cams. The further you get into the infrared spectrum, the less visible, but cheaper image sensors are less sensitive to these wavelengths. Intensity is what we would see as brightness.

True black flash cameras have higher wavelengths, lower intensity, and shorter duration and are unseen by deer. In order to achieve this they need a good (and usually much more expensive) image sensor.

If you take you camera into a dark closet and you can perceive the flash, so can deer.

Thanks,

Jack
 
Anecdotally, I've had a few cameras in the same spots year after year because they are great travel corridors for deer. I had one camera that would take normal IR type images at night and then pretty decent daylight photos. I had photos of the same wildlife as on all of the other cameras in the area. As soon as I put it onto video mode, I had certain bucks freaking out at the camera. I also noticed that coyotes and bobcats immediately started noticing the camera and changing their behavior. I am not sure if the camera is making a high frequency sound when recording the audio and video or if it is something else. It happens during the IR flash at night and during the day, but it is definitely different in video mode. I eventually moved the camera to an elevated position (about 7-8 feet up in a tree) and that seemed to help. The first couple of days after moving the camera though, I would have bobcats and coyotes move into the detection zone and look right up at the camera, even during the daytime.
 
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