2024 Deer Harvest Forecasts

356

5 year old buck +
In May of 2023 I posted a “deer season forecast” based on early trail cam photos. Although it is well past May, I will continue the tradition and post the anticipated harvest for the 2024-25 season. Feel free to respond with your “forecast” for the upcoming season.

2024 marks the 7th season of habitat improvements. The biggest change has been the improvement in the buck/doe ratio. From 2017-2020, I would often see seven to ten does for every buck. Today that ratio is about two does per buck. For 2024 I have two does with two fawns and two does with one fawn on camera regularly. We added two more blinds—a tower located near a transition point over row-crops and a bale blind between bedding and food.

Here is my 2024 season forecast:

* Early bow season: First doe tag filled. Nevertheless, I am going after Eleven 11, a mature target buck that has zero tolerance for pressure.
* October: Early antlerless season success for one of the grandkids.
* Firearms season: Best chance at harvesting Eleven 11 (50/50). Another doe down.
* Late bow and alternative (muzzle loader) season: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years. What will it be this year? Misfire? Scope fogs up? Thermos falls on metal stand while preparing for the shot? Bino strap breaks and bangs on the floor?

Kids and grandkids: One buck tag filled, one “why didn’t you let me shoot it” argument and two doe tags filled.
Me: One doe and a 50/50 chance on Eleven 11. Late season heartbreak can be mitigated by early season success.
Total Farm Harvest: 4

Bonus Harvest: I also hunt at our cabin, at Deer Camp and on some public and private located in other parts of the state: Buck tag and Doe tag filled.

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Mr. Tall Tine will be a pass UNLESS a grandkid says, “That’s the one I want.”
 
My son filled the first doe tag of the season on a September 22 sit in the new Maverick. Weight 112#, Age 2 1/2 years.
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Congrats to him! Live or dressed weight?
 
Congrats to him! Live or dressed weight?
Live. For the harvest journal I like to use live weights for consistency, given the short distance from field to barn. As a bonus, it saves the “field dress” stage and reduces the possibility of meat contamination. When hunting public, invitation or permission property, I will get a field dressed weight.

Speaking of weight, our heaviest deer was a mature late season 7 point with a 90” rack with a dressed weight of 220# (2016 harvest). I wish I had sent in the teeth, as the jawbone wear was significant. Back then I field dressed everything and took them to the processor, which would weight the harvest. These days I process at home, and I try to get live weight, rough antler measurements and jawbone data on all bucks; and weight, lactation status and jawbone data on all does. I also look at the hooves for signs of EHD and usually examine rumen content.
 
@356 Thanks, weights are interesting to me. 220 dressed is impressive. Right around 200 dressed is the heaviest we've had since we started weighing them a few years ago.
 
Our antlerless goals are moving along great. In addition to my son’s doe, I harvested a 66# doe (fawn) on the opener of the three day early antlerless season and a mature 148# doe with the bow.
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Here is my 2024 season realities vs the long range summer forecast.

* Early bow season: First doe tag filled. Nevertheless, I am going after Eleven 11, a mature target buck that has zero tolerance for pressure. Reality: Missed the opening day target doe, harvested a nice 149# doe on my birthday. Never saw Eleven 11.
* October: Early antlerless season success for one of the grandkids. Grandkids didn’t hunt. I filled one early antlerless tag with the old 30-30.
* Firearms season: Best chance at harvesting Eleven 11 (50/50). Another doe down. Didn’t see a deer. Longest deer drought in memory.
* Late bow and alternative (muzzle loader) season: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years. What will it be this year? Misfire? Scope fogs up? Thermos falls on metal stand while preparing for the shot? Bino strap breaks and bangs on the floor? No heartbreak (those happened early season), however, nothing that caught my interest. Saw Eleven 11 in hunting light for the first time on the last day of late bow season in January.

Kids and grandkids: One buck tag filled, one “why didn’t you let me shoot it” argument and two doe tags filled. One buck tag filled and two antlerless tags filled. And yes, I did have a “Let that one grow” conversation.
Me: One doe and a 50/50 chance on Eleven 11. Late season heartbreak can be mitigated by early season success. Two does, both early season. I saw Eleven 11 in shooting light on my last sit in January, a first.
Total Farm Harvest: 4. Five (5): I took 2 does, my soon harvested a buck and a doe and my granddaughter harvest a button buck.

Bonus Harvest: I also hunt at our cabin, at Deer Camp and on some public and private located in other parts of the state: Buck tag and Doe tag filled. Tag soup.

Season Forecast: 4 tags filled, two bucks, two does.
Season Reality: 5 tags filled, two bucks (one antlered/one button buck); three does.

The full story of the 2024 season can be found
HERE. The moral of this story (thread) is it pays to plan. My goal is not a “perfect forecast” but rather to make management decisions that make hunting fun and enjoyable while maintaining positive herd dynamics.
 
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