Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Peplin Creek]

It seems like we have a good number of forum members who like to dabble in the market.

I think this could be a fun topic to talk about as we rebound. Let’s all try our best to keep Unproductive political talk out of it as much as possible. (Bill feel free to shut it down if it gets out of hand. my feelings won’t be hurt.)


Looking at the gains of the last 3 days.... it seems like we might be at a bottom perhaps? I don’t know and I should probably be the last person giving stock advice. However I could see Earning losses in Q2 being an issue. So maybe a mild drop could happen yet? But even with high Unemployment Numbers Announced... we still had gains today which seems like a good sign. Seems to point to this displacement of the workforce as only temporary.

Thoughts one where any of you see it going from here?

 

[Buckly]

As I predicted last week. LOL. There was going to be a big bounce this week. Take some profit and then sit out the volatility to come. If you play those types of games.

 

[bueller]

I think there will be a selloff tomorrow and a bloody Monday following high CV numbers over the weekend. Maybe that's more hope than anything since I have a couple large chunks I'm waiting to throw in. I suspected Monday's 18,500 could be at/near a low but just couldn't pull the trigger.

 

[Buckly]

If your goal is long term then I think any time right now and you can’t go wrong. If your just playing with some money just to see what you can do then I think the bottom is still a ways off yet.

 

[Bill]

I’m no expert but all past so called bottoms had a spike before finding the real bottom. But this isn’t you’re normal shit storm so who knows??? The housing bubble/mortgage backed securities was real and there was no thought that maybe it was possibly a tad over hyped.

I told my advisor to start layering in some cash any time now. I know it’s going to be turbulent but there are some good buys out there. Told him I’d let him slide if we lost, but I wouldn’t forgive him if we missed an opportunity to make some real $.

I have a feeling when the 15 day stay at home is over and they ask us to shelter in place a bit longer the market won’t be happy.

disclaimer don’t take my advice, I don’t know squat! As a matter of fact a habitat forum isn’t the place to seek financial advice

But there is nothing wrong with having the thread.

 

[Bill]

Again not giving advice. But I’ll also be taking this as an opportunity to harvest some losses. Sell Ford at a loss and buy GM.(just an example) Same sector so you don’t miss the ride up but you have a write off for tax time.
I don’t make the rules but I sure heck will use them to my advantage.

 

[Tree Spud]

It seems like we have a good number of forum members who like to dabble in the market.

I think this could be a fun topic to talk about as we rebound. Let’s all try our best to keep Unproductive political talk out of it as much as possible. (Bill feel free to shut it down if it gets out of hand. my feelings won’t be hurt.)


Looking at the gains of the last 3 days.... it seems like we might be at a bottom perhaps? I don’t know and I should probably be the last person giving stock advice. However I could see Earning losses in Q2 being an issue. So maybe a mild drop could happen yet? But even with high Unemployment Numbers Announced... we still had gains today which seems like a good sign. Seems to point to this displacement of the workforce as only temporary.

Thoughts one where any of you see it going from here?

Have had several discussions with advisors who help us financially the past 1-2 weeks and they collectively have stated that we are in a "produced" recession even though our economic foundation is strong. We have some good cash available to buy and take advantage of deals but they have all advised hold off. He put it in a CD and is looking and watching for the right buying opportunities.

The feeling is that the market is looking for the bottom in a non-traditional downturn, We will see ups and downs over the next 4-5 weeks and that the bottom is very hard to predict.

The other issue that people are not seeing or understanding is that Saudia Arabia did a huge oil dump to attack Russia & OPEC, that accounted for at least 10% of the market loss. They did this at the same time the market was taking the Covid crash and that it is still a wild card on how the market will respond. Their impact of energy markets could really be interesting.

Goldman Sachs reports stated that this and 3rd quarter will be down but that 4th qrt could see significant jump in market value.

End of the day I am no market expert, my wife and I have down very well over many years of boring saving & investing. Just like Vegas, don't put yourself in a position where you have you double down your bets to make up for losses ... there is a time to make wealth, and a time to preserve wealth ...

 

[Bill]

don't put yourself in a position where you have you double down your bets to make up for losses ... there is a time to make wealth, and a time to preserve wealth

True Dat! Don’t bet the farm.

 

[bwoods11]

I would say we hit the bottom in the 18,000 range, but I expect it to be choppy ...

 

[Buckly]

Have had several discussions with advisors who help us financially the past 1-2 weeks and they collectively have stated that we are in a "produced" recession even though our economic foundation is strong. We have some good cash available to buy and take advantage of deals but they have all advised hold off. He put it in a CD and is looking and watching for the right buying opportunities.

The feeling is that the market is looking for the bottom in a non-traditional downturn, We will see ups and downs over the next 4-5 weeks and that the bottom is very hard to predict.

The other issue that people are not seeing or understanding is that Saudia Arabia did a huge oil dump to attack Russia & OPEC, that accounted for at least 10% of the market loss. They did this at the same time the market was taking the Covid crash and that it is still a wild card on how the market will respond. Their impact of energy markets could really be interesting.

Goldman Sachs reports stated that this and 3rd quarter will be down but that 4th qrt could see significant jump in market value.

End of the day I am no market expert, my wife and I have down very well over many years of boring saving & investing. Just like Vegas, don't put yourself in a position where you have you double down your bets to make up for losses ... there is a time to make wealth, and a time to preserve wealth ...

I wonder about gas going under a dollar a gallon again. They said it would never happen back in the 80’s and it did. Will we see it again?

 

[Telemark]

I think it's way too soon to know where the bottom is/will be, but I doubt we are at the bottom yet. Also, I don't think it will be evident with such a short-term bounce. I would like to see a trend over a few weeks before I start to think we found the bottom. I'm not even concerned with finding the actual lowest point, as long as I catch the trend.

That said, if you are a long-term investor, I would think now is a good time to pick up some cheap stocks, but I will be waiting at least until the Stimulus hype dies down. I will be keeping my long-term investments in the US market, probably focusing on especially beleaguered stocks like Boeing and Marathon Oil. Some other long-term (over 10 years) positions I like are mining, energy, utilities, and transportation companies, but I need to do more research over the next few months before I decide which ones. I think I will wait a bit before I buy SPY shares.

For a quick buck (1-2 years), I will be looking at Tesla, Bayer, and some Canadian marijuana companies, possibly gold as well.

For super short-term money, I would still be shorting the market if I had the guts. But that feels too much like gambling to me, and I hate gambling. I'm mostly mentioning it just to see if I'm right in a month or two.

Most or all of this will be done within a Roth IRA, for various reasons that are probably unique to me.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert, and this is not advice.

Feel free to comment or criticize. I am far from an expert at stock market investing/trading. I still have most of my money in real estate and will by trying to buy more this year with debt if I can get a loan from the bank.

 

[Bszweda]

I'll just keep maxing out the 401k. I keep thinking about how do I get my money out at the right time. My thought process is when around 55 become self employed move everything into solo 401k that allows you to purchase land and be your own custodian. That would allow me to get a consistent return I control.( not the highest return 3-4 % yearly) plus the appreciation . I have to figure out how to sell off the land when I reach the age they start mandortory withdrawals. Has any one in this forum done this? What worries me is the bail outs from the goverment seem to be the norm. Can the goverment keep doing this every 10 years?

 

[35-acre]

Someone I know was saying this was likely to have a 3 leg drop and we've seen leg one so far. That being said, I wasn't thinking the same thing. I was lucky and suspected tumultuous year with the election, so back in early January I had moved 50% of my $$ into bonds. I moved 1/3 of that back into a key stock 2 weeks ago (bought at sale prices). Yesterday I moved the other 2/3 back into fund and stock options (still sale prices). If the market corrects this year, or I dare say stays on this current upwards trend of the past 2-3 days this should work out in my favor. Even if things go down again and dip down another 20 or 30%, eventually I will recoup those losses on my investments. I may just have missed on the timing. I'm in my mid-40s so if this doesn't work out I still have years to make up for this if it backfires.

 

[bwoods11]

I'll just keep maxing out the 401k. I keep thinking about how do I get my money out at the right time. My thought process is when around 55 become self employed move everything into solo 401k that allows you to purchase land and be your own custodian. That would allow me to get a consistent return I control.( not the highest return 3-4 % yearly) plus the appreciation . I have to figure out how to sell off the land when I reach the age they start mandortory withdrawals. Has any one in this forum done this? What worries me is the bail outs from the goverment seem to be the norm. Can the goverment keep doing this every 10 years?

You could convert it to a Roth? That’s a tough one, might have to research that one.

 

[roymunson]

Well, here goes the next dip.

I shoulda sold off my short term gains then got back in. Oh well. We;re riding this pony now

 

[bwoods11]

Cruise stocks didn't get bailout money so they are down BIGLY. If Carnival keeps dropping to $7 or more, I am in on a flyer (gamble).

 

[bowhunternw]

I'll just keep maxing out the 401k. I keep thinking about how do I get my money out at the right time. My thought process is when around 55 become self employed move everything into solo 401k that allows you to purchase land and be your own custodian. That would allow me to get a consistent return I control.( not the highest return 3-4 % yearly) plus the appreciation . I have to figure out how to sell off the land when I reach the age they start mandortory withdrawals. Has any one in this forum done this? What worries me is the bail outs from the goverment seem to be the norm. Can the goverment keep doing this every 10 years?

I like your thinking as I have similar ambitions. Hope it works out for you.

Was going to write more but it seems you have already some research. I was going to say that if you use those funds before retirement age you basically can not touch the land. But I think you got that covered by leaving employment at 55. Suppose you would be subject to capital gains on the land appreciation.

 

[MojoRisin]

I don't feel we're at the bottom yet. I can personally see another ~ 20% drop. I would not be surprised to see the S&P get down to 2000. I expect a sea of red on Monday because this is a very bad weekend thus far from a counts/deaths perspective. The stimulus package is now factored it. Surprisingly the jobs reports seemed to be factored in too. I expected a red day but people used their brains and not emotions which is rare for many investors.


I am long in all my stock holdings. I did not make any moves until this past Thursday. I put a little more dry powder in the market adding to existing positions. I am holding the remaining dry powder to see how low we'll go. I'll buy bits and pieces on the way down. Now, I would love to be wrong about my assumptions.


One thing going against a huge comeback in the market this year is the fact it is an election year. Things has eased a tad with Sleepy Joe taking the lead from Sanders and Warren. Either of the latter 2 would have put the market into a tizzy.

 

[Apple Junkie]

I am THAT guy… boring 60/40 stock to bonds allocation invested in low expense index funds. I re-balance every 6 months if my allocation has shifted more than 5% either way. I was stock heavy in January, so I moved some dollars from stock to bonds to get back to the 60/40 allocation. If the market is at today’s prices, I will be moving money from bonds back to stocks come July. This plan is not sexy, nor does it require a lot of smarts (I am neither). However, it does impose investment discipline, and removes the anxiety of picking the right stock, and the right time to invest. I sleep like a baby, and worry about what to plant next, more than where my next dollar will come from.

That said, I will be watching this thread from time to time because it’s still fun to have a little “play money” in the market, rather than on the tables in ‘Vegas.

 

[Bill]

I think there will be a selloff tomorrow and a bloody Monday following high CV numbers over the weekend.

I got $100 on bueller. Bloody Monday!