Coronavirus

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Tioga County data from here https://www.tiogacountyny.com/programs-agencies/covid19/ Low incidence in this county but growing. More cases to the north, east, and west. Loosening up will mean more cases. That's ok if the health system holds. And hopefully we won't see much migration from downstate as upstate opens up.

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Tioga County data from here https://www.tiogacountyny.com/programs-agencies/covid19/ Low incidence in this county but growing. More cases to the north, east, and west. Loosening up will mean more cases. That's ok if the health system holds. And hopefully we won't see much migration from downstate as upstate opens up.

FEF40479-AC00-4C71-8312-07F6D64BDFC0.jpeg
 
Cuomo was a little pissy in his press conference today. He is not going to let Upstate open 5/1. Doesn’t sound like we will be opening any time soon because he said if opening results in one death he isn’t going to do it. I guess we should stay in forever because anytime you leave your house could be the last time. More importantly he reversed his decision to allow hospitals to open back up for elective surgery. Major D-bag move. My sisters-in-law is devastated. Her doctored called a couple days ago and said they could do her kidney transplant because they could do elective surgery again, not sure how a kidney transplant isn’t essential. They scheduled it with the donor and everything was all set. Dr. Called back today and cancelled saying Cuomo changed his mind and they were not permitted to do surgeries. I get to watch with her and my wife crying for the last hour. He said the call from upstate to open back up is all political. I guess the hiding of his hatred for upstate and Republicans is over.
 
Cuomo was a little pissy in his press conference today. He is not going to let Upstate open 5/1. Doesn’t sound like we will be opening any time soon because he said if opening results in one death he isn’t going to do it. I guess we should stay in forever because anytime you leave your house could be the last time. More importantly he reversed his decision to allow hospitals to open back up for elective surgery. Major D-bag move. My sisters-in-law is devastated. Her doctored called a couple days ago and said they could do her kidney transplant because they could do elective surgery again, not sure how a kidney transplant isn’t essential. They scheduled it with the donor and everything was all set. Dr. Called back today and cancelled saying Cuomo changed his mind and they were not permitted to do surgeries. I get to watch with her and my wife crying for the last hour. He said the call from upstate to open back up is all political. I guess the hiding of his hatred for upstate and Republicans is over.
That really sucks. All of this is doing more damage then good. They have no idea the fallout or maybe they do.
 
He likes the power. No doubt. He also said today nobody knows yet how to reopen. Well what’s he been doing. ill repeat until it’s over. Numbers are looking too good. And that bad for his control
 
States are keeping things shutdown and pleading with the Fed for more money and help. I think they should fend for themselves since they are making the decisions for themselves.
Trump should tell them no help coming since they want all the power and authority. Virginia has become pathetic since the democrats have taken over. At least they passed a law allowing the removal of statues. That was a real important issue since some of them have been there longer then 50 years. Didn't Hitler also destroy monuments.
 
Here’s the deal that some of these States are doing. They want Federal money to bail them out and balance their budgets. NY has been up front about that. What they’re not up front with is they will hold their States hostage out of the opening mix until the Fed gives them money. Some call it politics. Some extortion. But that’s what’s happening. These States are going to use opening as leverage for more money.
 
Things are starting to open up down here in Texas, starting with parks. Governor Abbot put together a strike-force to work through the where/when/what to open. I’ve not been a great fan of Lt. Gov. Patrick but he does have a pretty good attitude most of the time. I appreciate what he said the other night: “There are more important things than living, and that’s saving this country for my children and grandchildren and saving this country for all of us,” he said late on Monday. “I don’t want to die. Nobody wants to die, but man we gotta take some risks and get back in the game and get this country back up and running.” Classic Texan attitude.
 
Things are starting to open up down here in Texas, starting with parks. Governor Abbot put together a strike-force to work through the where/when/what to open. I’ve not been a great fan of Lt. Gov. Patrick but he does have a pretty good attitude most of the time. I appreciate what he said the other night: “There are more important things than living, and that’s saving this country for my children and grandchildren and saving this country for all of us,” he said late on Monday. “I don’t want to die. Nobody wants to die, but man we gotta take some risks and get back in the game and get this country back up and running.” Classic Texan attitude.

Serene Woods,

Where are you in Texas?

bill
 
We were working up a plan to reopen the hospital soon, but now who knows? I get that we need to be careful, but you can't say one thing, then backtrack and say another. People put in lots of time preparing to do what they're required to do, all in the midst of trying to provide patient care and while the hospital is losing hundreds of millions a month, only to find out it's a waste. I try to be open minded and to give the powers-that-be the benefit of the doubt, but they are making it difficult to take them at face value. I've never been a Cuomo fan, he's noted for being a bully, but I thought he was doing a good job at the start of this. So when I hear that we can't risk one life by reopening too soon, that sounds like him holding the reins a bit too tight. Health care experts agree - we're going to have this disease around for a long time. People will get sick, and some of them will die. So long as we aren't overwhelming our health care system, we are doing the best we can with the hand we're dealt. Taking risks when you know the odds isn't necessarily a bad thing.
 
Yeah, I know some PhDs whose work isn't even worth using in lieu of toilet paper, too. I appreciate when somebody is able to take a step back and look objectively at the situation, take criticism, and think deeply about a subject. Unfortunately, you have just as many dogmatic idiots in academia as anywhere else. Basically, if there's an agenda behind the conclusion, then it's suspect. But I appreciate your analysis. It is tough to talk science sometimes without sounding pedantic...the first thing I try to teach my trainees is that we need to be active and effective in communicating, or we will be marginalized. My success rate: little column A, little column B.

I think that much of the response to this pandemic was driven by early events, where they was in fact widespread community transmission prior to testing, leading to a logarithmic explosion in cases and overwhelming the health care systems. The fear of that same sequence of events materializing elsewhere drove draconican responses. They actually closed public boat launches in NY - which IMHO was ridiculous. It's since been rescinded. But even though they seem like overkill, perhaps they measure in aggregate were what kept undetected clusters from emerging. As you state, we needed more information - if I hear the terms fluid situation with emerging guidance once more, I might scream. But it's true. Now, we need to use what we know to promote a safe and effective reopening, ASAP. However, that's going to be a different timeline for NYC compared to upstate NY. We need region-specific plans. And we need to prevent this from sneaking up on us again.

Sorry if it appeared I was putting down VDH. I did not intend such. He is a great writer and his military history books are worth reading. My only caveat was that he has a deep political viewpoint, and history is written by the winners, right? Part of his job is to interpret events, and it would be fairly dry reading if he didn't interject some personality into his writing. But that's all I meant. There are liberal historians who lend their interpretation, as well. I take wisdom from whatever source it emerges. I think that I learned the seven dirty words from Carlin lol.

TreeDaddy - what do you suggest as a placebo control? I'm struggling here. I tried planting without tubes or cages, but the deer ate my plantings to the ground and chewed on the flags I'd used to mark them. Most of the trees were put in the ground crooked enough that the deer on my property tend to lean to the side from browsing on them, you'd think I had my eyes closed when I planted. Does that count as double-blind?

In east texas, double blinded is covering both eyes while drinking beer

Your posts reflect an obvious knowledge ,experience and enjoyment of planting trees

prima facie evidence that you are "a pretty good fella!"

bill
 
I drove from La. to Texas Monday carrying a letter that essentially said the economy and health of the world would collapse if I couldn't get to Conroe. { for those unaware Texas placed a restriction prohibiting non essential La. residents from entering Texas without a 14 day quarantine } Crossed the Sabine River with large intimidating signs demanding all traffic stop, proposing extended wait times all complete with rumble strips. There I found 2 Texas State trooper cars on side of road. I pulled up, they didn't get out. I rolled window down, spoke to the nice lady in the squad car who asked: Where did you come from---I had just crossed from La. so I said---La. Where you going---Conroe---Where are you spending the night----La. Have a nice day and drive safe. Thank you!


From there I went to the airport in Conroe where it was business as usual. Not a mask or glove in sight. Shook hands with folks I knew, signed paper work etc. Worked for couple hours then tooled on back home. No conclusion on all this except that response to the insanity varies greatly from place to place and what we see on the news doesn't always reflect reality---Duh
 
Yeah, I know some PhDs whose work isn't even worth using in lieu of toilet paper, too. I appreciate when somebody is able to take a step back and look objectively at the situation, take criticism, and think deeply about a subject. Unfortunately, you have just as many dogmatic idiots in academia as anywhere else. Basically, if there's an agenda behind the conclusion, then it's suspect. But I appreciate your analysis. It is tough to talk science sometimes without sounding pedantic...the first thing I try to teach my trainees is that we need to be active and effective in communicating, or we will be marginalized. My success rate: little column A, little column B.

I think that much of the response to this pandemic was driven by early events, where they was in fact widespread community transmission prior to testing, leading to a logarithmic explosion in cases and overwhelming the health care systems. The fear of that same sequence of events materializing elsewhere drove draconican responses. They actually closed public boat launches in NY - which IMHO was ridiculous. It's since been rescinded. But even though they seem like overkill, perhaps they measure in aggregate were what kept undetected clusters from emerging. As you state, we needed more information - if I hear the terms fluid situation with emerging guidance once more, I might scream. But it's true. Now, we need to use what we know to promote a safe and effective reopening, ASAP. However, that's going to be a different timeline for NYC compared to upstate NY. We need region-specific plans. And we need to prevent this from sneaking up on us again.

Sorry if it appeared I was putting down VDH. I did not intend such. He is a great writer and his military history books are worth reading. My only caveat was that he has a deep political viewpoint, and history is written by the winners, right? Part of his job is to interpret events, and it would be fairly dry reading if he didn't interject some personality into his writing. But that's all I meant. There are liberal historians who lend their interpretation, as well. I take wisdom from whatever source it emerges. I think that I learned the seven dirty words from Carlin lol.

TreeDaddy - what do you suggest as a placebo control? I'm struggling here. I tried planting without tubes or cages, but the deer ate my plantings to the ground and chewed on the flags I'd used to mark them. Most of the trees were put in the ground crooked enough that the deer on my property tend to lean to the side from browsing on them, you'd think I had my eyes closed when I planted. Does that count as double-blind?

The rest of you? Ignore us. I need to talk to the doc for a couple minutes.

Doc, I too have more than a passing interest in the eventual satisfactory resolution to this problem. I can't talk about it at your level, but I'm sure many of your points are valid. And, I appreciate your persistence, but, somewhere deep in your psyche you know that what people don't understand they will dismiss. I consider myself a scientist. There have never been more scientists alive in the history of mankind than there are today, yet I feel like we are losing the battle of perceptions. Why is that, I ask myself? I think part of it is the narratives we tell and the way we tell them. We just don't do a very good job. I think we'd rather be impressing with all that we know rather than explaining what how we got to what we think we know and what it means - in terms most of us can understand. In football, linemen are linemen for a reason. Maybe that fails the point.

Politicians want to bend the narrative to suit their purposes - and I don't always know their purpose - other than to get re-elected. Journalism today? A joke. There are a few good one's but not many. I guess I'm left to conclude we need to stop and think about what we are saying and how we say it to maintain scientific integrity and not diminish it. I don't know how, but I'm trying to do a better job. If we don't, who will?

Shhhh....I have a model - models, but I usually don't talk about them. Oh, I might say something trivial to start the conversation. Many years ago I started a retirement (financial) model. It's just a spreadsheet. I made heroic assumptions (some would call them stupid) about certain things like future rates of return, how long I might live, but as I got better I saw that I need to adjust my calculations because I came to know more about social security, and other areas that might be important as I approached the age. I had purchased a little aapl when it was the equivalent of about $40. I put a straight line through past prices and found it to look like a good investment. I had no idea it would approach $300. Should I talk about that in terms of exponential rates of returns or would a quadratic have been more appropriate? Nobody wants to know my $40,000 investment is now worth. I don't know. My model wasn't to be predictive of anything. It was to keep me understanding where I'd been and where I had to go. I'd look back and know I had to do some things different. Models can be helpful, but maybe they sit in the background and inform a useful and constructive narrative.

There's so much more I want to share with you. I think the boys and their opinions here are both right and wrong and I can't tell the difference because I don't think we know as much as we think we do - or what we do know isn't very useful. Numbers are not inerrant, not for the problems we have. So, I'm not sure using them does us any good. I hope, as a scientist, you know that the most damning thing that can happen is for another scientist to propose a viable alternative hypothesis to yours while using your data. And here we are.

The only numbers I see that aren't assumed or hypothesized are the Confirmed COVID-19 cases. My understanding is that a lab doing a test and finding a positive for the COVID desease must report that to the state health department. Many think its a useless number for seeing into the future. I think I agree. At least initially, people getting tested were those who probably were infected. It's like seeing a flat tire and then putting a tire gauge on it to confirm it's flat. I'm fascinated by the divergence in confirmed cases going from areas of high population density to lower. At first glance it makes sense, but the alternative hypothesis is there are more tests being performed in urban/suburban areas than in less densely populated areas. Like Fox Mulder said, "I want to believe!" But, I just don't know what to believe.

Well, doc, thanks for your ear. I'm troubled about our ability to tell a better story, a convincing narrative. I appreciate your persistence.

Ok, guys, thanks for that little moment. I think you should do what you want to do. Me, I'm staying in place for a while. At least until Friday morning when I think I'll go turkey hunting.
 
"New evidence indicates that COVID-19 hit the state of California at least as far back as early February.
On Tuesday, Santa Clara County Public Health officials announced that an autopsy revealed a patient died of the virus, which originated in China, on February 6, roughly three weeks prior to the first U.S. confirmed COVID-19 death in Washington State on February 29.

The first coronavirus death in Santa Clara County was initially marked on March 9. As of this writing, the county has 88 coronavirus-related deaths with another 1,948 reported cases.

“The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020,” the announcement said. “Samples from the two individuals were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). ”

The announcement did not indicate if the patients were elderly or had a pre-existing condition, noting only that “limited testing was available only through the CDC” while anticipating that more COVID-19 deaths will be identified throughout the county that were once previously unconfirmed cases.


“Testing criteria set by the CDC at the time restricted testing to only individuals with a known travel history and who sought medical care for specific symptoms,” the announcement continued. ” As the Medical Examiner-Coroner continues to carefully investigate deaths throughout the county, we anticipate additional deaths from COVID-19 will be identified.”

Speaking with Mercury News, County Executive Jeff Smith said the autopsy proves that the virus has been in California for a while – since as early as January.

“We know there was a person diagnosed in late January with the virus — but to have at least three people right around the beginning of February and late January already have the infection and two of them pass away means the virus has been around for a while,” Smith said.

Furthermore, these cases are believed to have originated in the community.

“It’s a much more dangerous virus than we initially recognized because we had limited testing,” Smith said.

Sara Cody, a public health officer with Santa Clara County, told the county’s Board of Supervisors on Tuesday that COVID-19 will see a number of surges for months or even years.

“COVID-19 is something we’re going to be managing for a very long time, months and likely years,” Cody said. “We anticipate this won’t be the only surge, we’ll have other surges that will likely come if we let up too much so we have to be extra careful to develop the information systems to enable us to monitor what we’re doing.”

Though the methodologies were called into question, a recent anti-body test study by Stanford University showed that the coronavirus cases in Santa Clara County were 50 to 85 times higher than officials initially speculated.

“At the time of the study, Santa Clara County had 1,094 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 50 deaths,” reported The Guardian. “But based on the rate of participants who have antibodies, the study estimates it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April.”

“That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought,” it continued. “As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.”


https://www.dailywire.com/news/bomb...19-hit-california-in-early-february-not-march

The Washington Post shared the same info..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/
 
Cuomo was a little pissy in his press conference today. He is not going to let Upstate open 5/1. Doesn’t sound like we will be opening any time soon because he said if opening results in one death he isn’t going to do it. I guess we should stay in forever because anytime you leave your house could be the last time. More importantly he reversed his decision to allow hospitals to open back up for elective surgery. Major D-bag move. My sisters-in-law is devastated. Her doctored called a couple days ago and said they could do her kidney transplant because they could do elective surgery again, not sure how a kidney transplant isn’t essential. They scheduled it with the donor and everything was all set. Dr. Called back today and cancelled saying Cuomo changed his mind and they were not permitted to do surgeries. I get to watch with her and my wife crying for the last hour. He said the call from upstate to open back up is all political. I guess the hiding of his hatred for upstate and Republicans is over.

that really does suck!
 
"New evidence indicates that COVID-19 hit the state of California at least as far back as early February.
On Tuesday, Santa Clara County Public Health officials announced that an autopsy revealed a patient died of the virus, which originated in China, on February 6, roughly three weeks prior to the first U.S. confirmed COVID-19 death in Washington State on February 29.

The first coronavirus death in Santa Clara County was initially marked on March 9. As of this writing, the county has 88 coronavirus-related deaths with another 1,948 reported cases.

“The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020,” the announcement said. “Samples from the two individuals were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). ”

The announcement did not indicate if the patients were elderly or had a pre-existing condition, noting only that “limited testing was available only through the CDC” while anticipating that more COVID-19 deaths will be identified throughout the county that were once previously unconfirmed cases.


“Testing criteria set by the CDC at the time restricted testing to only individuals with a known travel history and who sought medical care for specific symptoms,” the announcement continued. ” As the Medical Examiner-Coroner continues to carefully investigate deaths throughout the county, we anticipate additional deaths from COVID-19 will be identified.”

Speaking with Mercury News, County Executive Jeff Smith said the autopsy proves that the virus has been in California for a while – since as early as January.

“We know there was a person diagnosed in late January with the virus — but to have at least three people right around the beginning of February and late January already have the infection and two of them pass away means the virus has been around for a while,” Smith said.

Furthermore, these cases are believed to have originated in the community.

“It’s a much more dangerous virus than we initially recognized because we had limited testing,” Smith said.

Sara Cody, a public health officer with Santa Clara County, told the county’s Board of Supervisors on Tuesday that COVID-19 will see a number of surges for months or even years.

“COVID-19 is something we’re going to be managing for a very long time, months and likely years,” Cody said. “We anticipate this won’t be the only surge, we’ll have other surges that will likely come if we let up too much so we have to be extra careful to develop the information systems to enable us to monitor what we’re doing.”

Though the methodologies were called into question, a recent anti-body test study by Stanford University showed that the coronavirus cases in Santa Clara County were 50 to 85 times higher than officials initially speculated.

“At the time of the study, Santa Clara County had 1,094 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 50 deaths,” reported The Guardian. “But based on the rate of participants who have antibodies, the study estimates it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April.”

“That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought,” it continued. “As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.”


https://www.dailywire.com/news/bomb...19-hit-california-in-early-february-not-march

The Washington Post shared the same info..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/
This has been my contention for some time. My recent exchange here with Dr. Knehrke was over a link he provided and my disagreement with a another medical research scientist that stated unequivocally, to paraphrase, that you could not have contracted Coronavirus in this country in January. Here is a case of a death from this disease on the 6th of February. Assuming the incubation is around a week, and assuming it took around a week to succumb to the disease (conservatively), the virus has to have been contracted by around the third week of January (or possibly sooner). My apologies to Dr. Knehrke, but I have sufficient information to conclude this without all the facts. I think it is reasonable to contend that this is not an outlier and likely there were cases earlier in January, possibly even late December (as I have said here before).

The reason I harp on this so much is that it really chaps my ass that the Chinese allowed travel to this country after it was known to be spreading in their country while they sequestered their military away from their outbreak, restricted travel within their country, hoarded as much of the worlds supply of PPE as they could, all the while along lying (and got their chief stooge in the W.H.O to lie) about the severity of this virus. OK, I’ll get off my soapbox, for now.
 
I would agree with everything you wrote but, the PPE shortage is our fault as a Nation Can’t have them make 90-100 percent but, I don’t think you’ll see us beholden to China on that front for a very long time I imagine.
 
I would agree with everything you wrote but, the PPE shortage is our fault as a Nation Can’t have them make 90-100 percent but, I don’t think you’ll see us beholden to China on that front for a very long time I imagine.
Yeah but...their hoarding caused a worldwide shortage, and I also agree with you. We really need to hold our political and business leaders feet to the fire to decouple from China, especially on critical items such as medical and military technology.
 
Oh , I think everybody’s on board with that at this point. At far as strategic medical and military items. I’m fairly confident there‘s more than you can imagine that the government has put away for a chemical or germ warfare attack. Those things aren’t ever going to be in the public know. The strategic reserve they talk about is for National emergencies but I’m confident the Government is more than prepared militarily supply wise.
 
Oh , I think everybody’s on board with that at this point. At far as strategic medical and military items. I’m fairly confident there‘s more than you can imagine that the government has put away for a chemical or germ warfare attack. Those things aren’t ever going to be in the public know. The strategic reserve they talk about is for National emergencies but I’m confident the Government is more than prepared militarily supply wise.
I hope so. In the words of Hahn Solo “I don’t know, I can imagine a lot.”

Although I believe the release was due to incompetence (I don’t think they would have infected so many of their own on purpose) and the coverup was just because of the nature of such a totalitarian regime (think USSR and the initial denials about Chernobyl), and their culture (saving face), my concern is that this could be useful for the Chinese as a view into how we would react to a biological attack. I am not a conspiracy nut, I certainly don’t think this was a deliberate dry run (no indication this was weaponized, i.e., no gene sequence splicing), but it is a perfect opportunity for them to observe. Maybe I’m just paranoid, or maybe I spent too much time in efforts of the Cold War, I don’t know. I’m just saying.
 
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