Any of you guys with timber sold carbon credits yet?

CarolinaDawg

A good 3 year old buck
I’ve got a couple hundred acres of timber about half is harvestable now the other half is three years old. I was approached by a company with a one year contract to not cut my timber. The value of the contract is only around $1,200 this year. I’m wondering if it’s worth the headache. Any of you followed through with something like this? Would love to hear about your experience thus far.
 
I'm exploring this right now. Next contract period is April. One year contract. They take satellite view of farm beginning and end to assess value. Payment is at end of contract. I'm usually not interested in these things at all. But this appears different and I'm going to explore. Bit more acreage here, closer to 1000 acres timber.
 
There is another thread if you search for NCX and habitat talk. My family has two farms enrolled. We just placed our bids at what we thought was the current market rate (based on input from folks on here). Both of our properties were selected for model verification, which involves having a forester out to your place at the start of the year (January for us) and a year later. We enrolled in December/January of this year. I think enrollment probably took 30 minutes or so for each property. The forester visit took about a day for 60 acres and two and half for 160 acres, but we didn't need to be present for either. Currently there are random grid coordinates with rebar and orange flags marked all around the property, but they are not a problem as far as we are concerned.

I think we will get somewhere around $8/credit, and we were estimated to have around a credit per acre. For example, for 160 acres on one farm about 100 of which is marginal timber that was logged 60-80 years ago. $8 X 160 = $1280. If the bid price were go do much lower than that, we may not do it, because it's a bit annoying thinking about plans and not being sure if you can cut certain trees for improving a stand or releasing some other hardwoods.
 
Like Hoytvectrix, I enrolled my 90 acre camp with NCX. It's like someone tapped me on the shoulder and said, "let me pay half your taxes". In my experience, there have been no surprises, and minimal effort to enroll.
 
Yeah so far been pretty painless. Even though I was chosen to have a survey done that was no effort from my end. I even got way more credits than I had anticipated so that will be a nice little bonus if a check ever comes.
 
I spent some time talking with one of their associates. They’re kinda all over the place with the rates the last few cycles. This last cycle, my assessment of deferral credits doubled to just over 2 credits per acre.

From what I’ve seen firsthand, based on their rates and economic principals, you’d be money ahead to forego their offering and harvest the timber. Money not as important to you?? Well it must be if you’re looking into what they’re selling. :) Fundamentally, I don’t think they can exist with the rates they’ve shared with me. Maybe their assessment tools are shorting my stumpage value…

I also have seen people call it “free money” and say, “well I don’t intend to cut the trees anyway.” Better not let NCX see that!
 
I spent some time talking with one of their associates. They’re kinda all over the place with the rates the last few cycles. This last cycle, my assessment of deferral credits doubled to just over 2 credits per acre.

From what I’ve seen firsthand, based on their rates and economic principals, you’d be money ahead to forego their offering and harvest the timber. Money not as important to you?? Well it must be if you’re looking into what they’re selling. :) Fundamentally, I don’t think they can exist with the rates they’ve shared with me. Maybe their assessment tools are shorting my stumpage value…

I also have seen people call it “free money” and say, “well I don’t intend to cut the trees anyway.” Better not let NCX see that!
I don’t see it the same. Im pretty sure it doesn’t say I can only enroll if I intend on cutting this cycle. I bet I could call them and say I don’t plan on cutting for 10 years, will you accept my property and they would say sure. They are just selling some mumbo jumbo green goodwill to corporations so why do they care what the landowners intentions are, just the execution of not cutting. Plus they give you an out if you decide to cut, they simply don’t pay you for that acreage. I think it’s a fine program from landowners who want to take advantage of some easy money…well as long as they pay at the end!
 
I don’t see it the same. Im pretty sure it doesn’t say I can only enroll if I intend on cutting this cycle. I bet I could call them and say I don’t plan on cutting for 10 years, will you accept my property and they would say sure. They are just selling some mumbo jumbo green goodwill to corporations so why do they care what the landowners intentions are, just the execution of not cutting. Plus they give you an out if you decide to cut, they simply don’t pay you for that acreage. I think it’s a fine program from landowners who want to take advantage of some easy money…well as long as they pay at the end!
NCX doesn’t exist as a company because you sell them your pledge to defer harvest. They exist because companies BUY these harvest deferrals from them. If NCX isn’t actually buying genuine harvest deferrals, then what can they possibly be selling? If their customers (buyers) catch wind of widespread indifference by NCX on which properties they buy from, then NCX won’t be in business long, and the real merchantable timber owners are the ones that are hurt!

I’ll stop short of opining on whether NCX could have fraud accusations to defend against, if they were especially careless.

Now some of this may be hyperbole, but a fun experiment would be to call and ask them yourself — only pretend you’re a buyer and not a seller. And maybe I’m off my rocker.
 
NCX doesn’t exist as a company because you sell them your pledge to defer harvest. They exist because companies BUY these harvest deferrals from them. If NCX isn’t actually buying genuine harvest deferrals, then what can they possibly be selling? If their customers (buyers) catch wind of widespread indifference by NCX on which properties they buy from, then NCX won’t be in business long, and the real merchantable timber owners are the ones that are hurt!

I’ll stop short of opining on whether NCX could have fraud accusations to defend against, if they were especially careless.

Now some of this may be hyperbole, but a fun experiment would be to call and ask them yourself — only pretend you’re a buyer and not a seller.
Totally, I just think they would be wading into some unprovable territory by assuming someone’s intentions. All someone has to say is yes I was going to cut but your deal was too enticing.
I think the whole thing is based perception anyway. Is there any science that says a mature timber stand collects more carbon than an early successional plot of the same size? Maybe there is but it would seem the biodiversity and volume of plant life in a regrowing cut would favor carbon capture, but what do I know. Hell I’ll tell them I will defer harvesting unicorns too if they want to package that to corporations as well.
 
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Im salty because I fully suspect what you’re referring to is why people like me that are truly trying to justify harvest deferral can’t get it to pencil out.
 
NCX doesn’t exist as a company because you sell them your pledge to defer harvest. They exist because companies BUY these harvest deferrals from them. If NCX isn’t actually buying genuine harvest deferrals, then what can they possibly be selling? If their customers (buyers) catch wind of widespread indifference by NCX on which properties they buy from, then NCX won’t be in business long, and the real merchantable timber owners are the ones that are hurt!

I’ll stop short of opining on whether NCX could have fraud accusations to defend against, if they were especially careless.

Now some of this may be hyperbole, but a fun experiment would be to call and ask them yourself — only pretend you’re a buyer and not a seller. And maybe I’m off my rocker.

How do you see this as any different from market makers in the stock market making money on the spread?
 
Im salty because I fully suspect what you’re referring to is why people like me that are truly trying to justify harvest deferral can’t get it to pencil out.
I guess I cant figure out how they would think paying someone $2-3k would offset a timber harvest if they truly planned on it? In some areas that is an acre of harvested timber. Surely they operate under the assumption that this is a collection of acres to package for corporate goodwill and not an actual deterrent for timber harvest? It’s a numbers game for them, get as many acres under some arbitrary carbon offset algorithm they made up and then sell it so a board can print it in their annual report. Hell maybe I’m dead wrong and people are actually holding off for a cycle because of this carrot but those number don’t work to me…err I mean that is exactly why I did it!
 
You don't have to look far to find a lot of programs that make you scratch your head. At some point, this opportunity may fade away for the reasons you guys point out above, or, it might evolve somehow. Incomes streams can be fickle, just look at natural gas leases in NY. This program is here now, it makes financial sense for me, so I am take advantage while it lasts.
 
I had to check this out. Their website says there is no minimum acreage requirement. I have 40 acres of mostly woods. So they will give me money to not cut my trees down for a year? Are dead trees exempt? I cut them down for my fire place and for my maple syrup evaporator.
 
I had to check this out. Their website says there is no minimum acreage requirement. I have 40 acres of mostly woods. So they will give me money to not cut my trees down for a year? Are dead trees exempt? I cut them down for my fire place and for my maple syrup evaporator.

I doubt you can cut enough to even be noticed on your 40 acres. They know some will die, get blown over in a storm, etc. I cut the occasional dead tree for firewood, or one that come down over a lane. I know I don't overthink it, as long as I'm not doing a logging operation.
 
I'll pass along a comment made by a poster on the farming forum last month. A topic that comes up frequently is the carbon pipelines. This fella was at a conference in KC "for thinking outside the box." They were told to be supportive of the Summit CO2 pipeline, by a millionaire representing other millionaires in a billionaire company. They were having rounds afterward in the hallway, and the presenter representing Summit didn't care for any of the arguments. His final statement was this: "We have to position ourselves to extract artificial value from Governmental Policy not fundamental science… There are trillions of dollars on the table via Governmental policy." The guy was pretty unhappy that we're being sold a project where the elite get rich on easy Govt money stemming from socialist policy and not true economic return. "Government is today's economic engine."
 
I'll pass along a comment made by a poster on the farming forum last month. A topic that comes up frequently is the carbon pipelines. This fella was at a conference in KC "for thinking outside the box." They were told to be supportive of the Summit CO2 pipeline, by a millionaire representing other millionaires in a billionaire company. They were having rounds afterward in the hallway, and the presenter representing Summit didn't care for any of the arguments. His final statement was this: "We have to position ourselves to extract artificial value from Governmental Policy not fundamental science… There are trillions of dollars on the table via Governmental policy." The guy was pretty unhappy that we're being sold a project where the elite get rich on easy Govt money stemming from socialist policy and not true economic return. "Government is today's economic engine."
Not to get off on a tangent but I think that is exactly what is happening with wind and solar companies. In no way are these ventures profitable without the government subsidies, not to mention the large scale environmental disasters they present. But what are we expected to do…if someone is going to give us money most will take it no matter how ridiculous we feel the reason behind it is.
I’ll throw these carbon credit companies in this mix too. If you held a gun to their heads do they really think their efforts are saving the world…or did they see a business opportunity?
 
I agree. I don't mind a little solar and wind in places that make sense or if in an area where everyone loves it and realizes it's downfalls, but I'll be honest that I don't want it on me. We're fighting two wind companies trying to set up shop here. The land they're getting locked up actually overlaps. My dad and I have been trying to get these idiots to fly a kite for over two years. A salesman from TX flew back here last weekend and was pounding on our doors on both Saturday and Sunday! No means no. We have some good opposition, but going to need help from the county, who has already permitted every wind farm that's applied.
 
I guess I cant figure out how they would think paying someone $2-3k would offset a timber harvest if they truly planned on it? In some areas that is an acre of harvested timber. Surely they operate under the assumption that this is a collection of acres to package for corporate goodwill and not an actual deterrent for timber harvest? It’s a numbers game for them, get as many acres under some arbitrary carbon offset algorithm they made up and then sell it so a board can print it in their annual report. Hell maybe I’m dead wrong and people are actually holding off for a cycle because of this carrot but those number don’t work to me…err I mean that is exactly why I did it!
How does a few $k offset timber harvest? It doesn’t. It offsets harvest DEFERRAL for 12 months. This isn’t Turkish’s thoughts, this is econ 101 and it was also explicitly provided as an example on NCX’s site … up until about 9 months ago. I asked why it was taken down and wasn’t given a good answer. I believe the answer is because their offering isn’t coming close to what their example showed.

The summarized example is as follows: Timber owner has $100k worth of standing merchantable timber value. All things being equal, what’s the difference in taking that income today vs 365 days from now? Answer: The interest that $100k could bring. I know about what that number is for me, as does any smart investor. Let’s call it 4%. So, it costs $4k to defer harvest by 1 year. That is what I should expect someone to pay me to defer harvest by 1 year. And 4% is very low, but I think that was what their example used.
 
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