Lumber Prices

My local Lowes is pricing 4X4X8s at $19 a piece! Read an article a couple days ago that building a basic, single family home went up nearly $17,000 in the last 6 months of 2020. Guess if I build anything, I will have to do it out of old pallets!!

VV
 
Hopefully we will see a reversal in the next year or two. That's what I'm banking on.

This was the case with guns/optic/ammo several years ago. Demand was extremely high, prices were up, manufacturers started cranking out as much as possible, and when the demand dropped off the market was saturated and there were some really good deals.

Hopefully when the economy ramps up and people are back at work there will be a lot of lumber and less demand. Then I will build my shed/towerblinds/iceboat.
 
Yesterday at home depot - 4’x8’ OSB $30.64. A year and a half ago under $7

Pine timber prices here near rock bottom
 
Read an article a couple days ago that building a basic, single family home went up nearly $17,000 in the last 6 months of 2020. Guess if I build anything, I will have to do it out of old pallets!!

VV

If you are building a single family home and it only went up $17k during this lumber issue, you would be an idiot to now move the project forward.
 
Building supply prices will return to normal in about 6 mo when my new, downsizing house is completed!
As for timber prices.... Trump, about 3 years ago, placed a tariff on Canadian pine as they were subsidizing their timber industry of conifer timbering on their public land and flooding American market with cheaper pine lumber.
In addition, the tariffs he placed on China, they responded in part with high tariffs on our Red Oak which is exported to them for fine furniture fabrication. Thus that market, which is a large market from this state has suppressed Red Oak stump prices. That Chinese tariff has since been lifted but at moment there is a surplus stockpile of RO state side. That surplus should deplete late this year and RO prices should rebound. Hence my timbering of 80 ac of mature RO and WO is on hold until early 22.
 
Timber prices will be like high shipping charges we saw a few years ago when diesel fuel was high. Diesel prices came down but the cost of shipping didn't.
 
Timber prices will be like high shipping charges we saw a few years ago when diesel fuel was high. Diesel prices came down but the cost of shipping didn't.
Just like fuel prices, rise like a rocket and fall like a feather.
 
As for my take on timber prices, I'm expecting them to stay low for a long time. The dramatic rise in lumber cost is due to a reduced production capacity during COVID and a rise in homeowner demand for in-home projects. Those with cash that are now working from home and can't do many leisure activities are now doing DIY projects. However, trees don't stop growing for COVID. So, the raw material stock continues to grow and is not being depleted. Even with the Fed pushing cash into the market, recovery will be slow. I think we are looking at undue optimism in the market right now. Investors are relying on economic stimulus and low interest rates to support the recovery. The stimulus will eventually need to be paid for. It will reduce the depth of the plunge and smooth things out, but true economic recovery will be slow. Timber prices will always be volatile but I'm not expecting and upward trend in the mid-term.
 
Timber prices will be like high shipping charges we saw a few years ago when diesel fuel was high. Diesel prices came down but the cost of shipping didn't.

Timber is a lot easier to acquire than diesel. That makes competition a lot more vigorous.
 
We are building as soon as prices go down also. Lumber is double and sheeting is triple the price pre Covid. Lumber yard said it wasn’t going to get better anytime soon. They were expecting Biden to keep his word and shut everything down when he gets in. We will wait and see, maybe the current lumber prices are going to be the new normal.
 
My logging bids were due today. 24 acres of mostly maple and hickory. I was very pleased with the bids. High bid was 19k. Forester said to expect 10-12k. After his 12% I will keep about 16k.
 
My logging bids were due today. 24 acres of mostly maple and hickory. I was very pleased with the bids. High bid was 19k. Forester said to expect 10-12k. After his 12% I will keep about 16k.
That sounds fair. What kind if Maple?
 
Here is breakdown of trees taken.
91687030d06e73f91e8575a293cdc0e4.jpg


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Another perspective
 
The one osb plant in our area is running full steam ahead. Making huge money but the guys owning the wood have not seen anything.
 
Almost 6 bucks for a 2x4 here in Nj.
I thought it was expensive 2 years ago building my house.
The lumber bill was 90,000.
I would hate to see what it would be today
 
Treated 2x4 is $9.57 at Menards here in WI.
 
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