Fertilizer prices in 21-22

Hoytvectrix

5 year old buck +
Without getting too into details, I work for a fertilizer/soil health company. I have been on calls all this week where pricing/availability of raw mineral ingredients for most conventional N-P-K products. Expect prices of nitrogen and potassium to increase substantially next year. There is going to be a serious shortage of urea- and ammonia-based fertilizers in particular. Potash will continue to have supply issues this coming year as well. These supply issues have spilled over into organic fertilizer prices as they squeeze that supply, but probably to a lesser extent.

I know most food plot guys are not applying supplemental fertilizer, but there are some that do and others who farm in their day jobs. If you're planning on applying fertilizer next year, consider purchasing some in the near future.

P.S. I would also consider if you are planning on planting any turfgrass seed (beside KY-31), you would be wise to buy it now. The drought that hit the PNW affected turf seed harvests for most cool-season turfgrass seed. Yields were a fraction that they normally are. I know based on at least a few cultivars and species that this will essentially double the cost. I don't think this will spill over into typical food plot small grains and this is likely specific to the turf industry.
 
Thanks
 
Without getting too into details, I work for a fertilizer/soil health company. I have been on calls all this week where pricing/availability of raw mineral ingredients for most conventional N-P-K products. Expect prices of nitrogen and potassium to increase substantially next year.

Curious to know what is driving this?
 
The payoff for knowing how to grow without that stuff is getting bigly.

For the large scale farmers perhaps. For the small scale food plotters use, I doubt this will have a big impact.
 
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No till and no fertilizer. Just good old fashioned crop rotation.


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The payoff for knowing how to grow without that stuff is getting bigly.
If the alternative is rotationally grazing kiko goats to different paddocks then I'll just pay more for my fertilizer.

**for now. Subject to change. As always.
 
Covid 19 and hurricanes.
This is pretty much spot on. Covid-19 has been slowing distribution and production in general. The hurricanes affect ammonia and urea production on top of that. There are also some issues with Russian tariffs and/or an export freeze affecting phosphate availability and price. I'm not one for doom and gloom, but this is certainly going to be a unique season. Somewhat of a chicken or the egg premise, but grain prices being higher helps with some of this. I would think this is likely to push grain prices even higher, but admittedly, this is something I am not all that familiar with.

@Bassattackr.
 
I knew there would be at least one of these comments lol.
Unfortunately there isn't more. With there still being a short window to plant for some of you. I would be planting medium red clover on any area you plan to plant any N seeking crops next year. Price is one thing but actually being able to get it is totally different. Clover seed is cheep what reason would anyone have to not plant it?
 
We can't get a price on next years 32% from our supplier yet. Sounds like it'll be at least double what this year was. I already booked dry fert this fall. It's double also. Running half rate on phosphate and 2/3 on potash for bean crop.
 
Unfortunately there isn't more. With there still being a short window to plant for some of you. I would be planting medium red clover on any area you plan to plant any N seeking crops next year. Price is one thing but actually being able to get it is totally different. Clover seed is cheep what reason would anyone have to not plant it?
You're preaching to the choir here. We actually favor low N rates even with our straight conventional growers and have been pushing cover crops for decades. The tides are turning, but it is incredibly slow.
 
No till and no fertilizer. Just good old fashioned crop rotation.
I think I have finished development on my nearly-nothing system the past few weeks. Nothing left to do now but run the full cycle next year and take pics. I was waiting to see what would happen with my brassicas, and I got my answer.
 
Curious to know what is driving this?

My company works with many of these mineral processors along with paper, steel, food, & energy. We supply industrial process equipment that supports their production. The answer is pretty simple ...

The Gov't pushed an extreme covid narrative that required masks, social distancing, etc. that forced many raw material processors (minerals, pulp & paper, steel production, etc.) to shut down multiple process lines. Companies understood that one employee testing positive for covid, would force a Gov't mandated 2 week shut down and open them up to health inspections. Unlike food processing companies that are designed around sanitary practices, industrial processors are not.

The Gov't has now been paying employees at these companies not to work for the past 14-16 months. Many babyboomers are now retiring early. These are the experienced/trained people who work at these companies who can get things done. This has created a huge void in production and key office personnel. We are finding that many of our suppliers who had 8-10 people in a department, now have 2. This also means that new employees brought in, if they can be found, are young and have little to no experience.

Transportation is a mess right now also. Here is a quote from our banker who provides us updates on market forecasts, trends, & issues ...
Supply-chain bottlenecks continue to be a significant issue with all of our clients, regardless of industry. What was thought to be an issue that would resolve itself in months, may now extend through
2022 and into 2023. Spikes of Covid in Asia have created slowing of exports. Coastal ports are clogged with shipping containers that need to be cleared, a shortage of trucks/chassis to move cargo out
of the ports and ships, for land transportation, are floating offshore that cannot be unloaded due to the gridlock.


Remember, most everything you use in your life has major supply/production sourcing originating in Asia. If you like your rechargeable batteries, phones, electronics, etc., they are all dependent on rare earth minerals. Tighten your seat belts as China controls ~85% of the rare earth mineral market supply.

The current administration is also shutting down N. American oil production (exploration, mining, & refineries). They are pulling oil leases, shutting down pipe line construction, etc. If you think $3/50/gal gas price is high, just wait ... now the Middle East, Russia, & Venezuela will control the oil supply. Where do you think gas prices will go?

This means raw materials shortages are leading to serious upstream fabricator & wholesale distributor problems, unpredictable lead times & availability, and rapid unplanned price increases. We saw steel price increase jump 10% in May, and now 20-30% in Sept. A standard 2hp, TEFC electric motor that you could buy at almost any electrical distributor off the self is now 36 week lead time. Mineral production is experiencing issues and look at the jump in lumber prices, all a result of the above.

The other aspect that compounds the problem is that it takes a major processor several months to shut down a production line. It can take 4-6 months to start up a paper machine and 7-10 months to start up an oil production/refinery line. Then they have to rehire workers ... Duh! no one wants to work when they are being paid to stay home.

Pretty clear who created this crisis ... they certainly aren't wasting it. :emoji_wink:
 
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The Gov't pushed an extreme covid narrative that required masks, social distancing, etc. that forced many raw material processors (minerals, pulp & paper, steel production, etc.) to shut down multiple process lines. Companies understood that one employee testing positive for covid, would force a Gov't mandated 2 week shut down and open them up to health inspections.

You stated my suspicions.. thank you.

In the words of Don Higgins (Chasing Giants podcast).. GARBAGE.
 
Without getting too into details, I work for a fertilizer/soil health company. I have been on calls all this week where pricing/availability of raw mineral ingredients for most conventional N-P-K products. Expect prices of nitrogen and potassium to increase substantially next year. There is going to be a serious shortage of urea- and ammonia-based fertilizers in particular. Potash will continue to have supply issues this coming year as well. These supply issues have spilled over into organic fertilizer prices as they squeeze that supply, but probably to a lesser extent.

I know most food plot guys are not applying supplemental fertilizer, but there are some that do and others who farm in their day jobs. If you're planning on applying fertilizer next year, consider purchasing some in the near future.

P.S. I would also consider if you are planning on planting any turfgrass seed (beside KY-31), you would be wise to buy it now. The drought that hit the PNW affected turf seed harvests for most cool-season turfgrass seed. Yields were a fraction that they normally are. I know based on at least a few cultivars and species that this will essentially double the cost. I don't think this will spill over into typical food plot small grains and this is likely specific to the turf industry.

Hoyt...thanks for posting this, I will be at the feed mill Sat to pick up some.
 
Hoyt...thanks for posting this, I will be at the feed mill Sat to pick up some.
You're welcome. Pretty much any Ag retailer should know prices are going up. I know we are at least trying to get as many to be pre-paying now because it's still difficult to know by how much.
 
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