Rut predicting

[Boll Weevil]

As Dr Karl Miller once told me, SC has 3 distinct peak breeding phases spread over the state and TX has 7-9 areas with different peak breeding dates. Each of those areas shares the same moon, don't they? Even if one can somehow rationalize that with the moon controlling breeding dates, the quote from Phil flat out renders the moon's impact on breeding a fallacy any way you look at it.

This...period. How the "moon phase = rut trigger" crap has survived this long is beyond me.

 

[j-bird]

This...period. How the "moon phase = rut trigger" crap has survived this long is beyond me.

1000 years a go everyone we knew as a fact that the earth was the center of the universe,
500 years ago everyone knew the earth was flat,
Imagine what you'll know tomorrow?

MIB!

 

[phil@thesidehill]

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2014/can-you-predict-the-rut



Sent from 25 ft up a tree

 

[Tap]

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2014/can-you-predict-the-rut



Sent from 25 ft up a tree

Thanks Phil. Once again...evidence that Kroll is full of it.

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[phil@thesidehill]

Thanks Phil. Once again...evidence that Kroll is full of it.

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Haha...yup. I saw it in my news feed and remembered the discussion here...so I figured I'd share it. I really like that PSU deer blog...some interesting reading and research.


Sent from 25 ft up a tree

 

[Tap]

Haha...yup. I saw it in my news feed and remembered the discussion here...so I figured I'd share it. I really like that PSU deer blog...some interesting reading and research.


Sent from 25 ft up a tree

I never heard of that blog, but I signed up for it. Thanks for that, too.

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[phil@thesidehill]

I never heard of that blog, but I signed up for it. Thanks for that, too.

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Enjoy!


Sent from 25 ft up a tree

 

[BobinCt]

My attitude is simple: when Halloween comes around and the month of November, don't let ANYTHING deter you from getting in the tree whether it's the moon, weather or temperature. Everyone are going to have different opinions about the rut , moon etc.. Bottom line is, during the times I mentioned, if your not in a tree or a blind, or in the woods, your not shooting a deer. Spend as much time as possible in your stands during these times and good things will happen. I will give you one fact: your odds of shooting a nice buck definitely increase when your in the stand vs at home in bed.

 

[WTNUT]

I have not read the posts, but I am one who use to think the moon stuff was a bunch of bull. Several years ago, I started to pay close attention to Charles Alsheimer's rut predictions in Deer and Deer Hunting. Like Bill, I am lucky enough to be able to take time off from work and stay in a tree from late October through the end of November. There is no doubt in my mind based upon probably close to 10 years of watching deer activity in connection with his predictions that there is "something" to it. I would not say stay out of the woods until he says it is time for deer to start cruising, but I pay closer attention and hunt harder during the days when he says they are cruising or chasing. In the Midwest, the dates he predicts seem to always be very very close to what I see in the woods. Sure weather can alter it some, but it is a good reference point to pay attention to. Which reminds me, I need to find out what he predicted for this year. You would think I would have paid enough attention to predict it myself by now ha ha. I haven't even looked to see when the Harvest Moon is this year.


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[Buckly]

The theory being that the max breeding will take place during the darkest moon phase so that the majority of fawns are dropping in the darkest moon phase in the spring. I would also say that the rut is much more predictable in the North. the further South you get the more it's spread out

 

[phil@thesidehill]

I have not read the posts, but I am one who use to think the moon stuff was a bunch of bull. Several years ago, I started to pay close attention to Charles Alsheimer's rut predictions in Deer and Deer Hunting. Like Bill, I am lucky enough to be able to take time off from work and stay in a tree from late October through the end of November. There is no doubt in my mind based upon probably close to 10 years of watching deer activity in connection with his predictions that there is "something" to it. I would not say stay out of the woods until he says it is time for deer to start cruising, but I pay closer attention and hunt harder during the days when he says they are cruising or chasing. In the Midwest, the dates he predicts seem to always be very very close to what I see in the woods. Sure weather can alter it some, but it is a good reference point to pay attention to. Which reminds me, I need to find out what he predicted for this year. You would think I would have paid enough attention to predict it myself by now ha ha. I haven't even looked to see when the Harvest Moon is this year.


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the harvest moon was on September 16th. If i remember correctly Ol Chuck says its the second full moon after the harvest moon, that is the trigger. which would be November 14th this year.

I personally dont put any creedence in the moon theory...as far as RUT timing goes. by the RUT i mean peak breeding and not just rut related behavior like rubbing, scraping, fighting/sparring, chasing/seeking, increased daytime movement of bucks, etc. I CAN believe that moon phase and the time of day/night it is overhead or under foot COULD potentially impact overall deer movement....but i dont think, at least not that i have seen any way, that it is usually a significant impact. I just think that there are a whole lot of other factors that influence deer movement in a given 24 hr period that to singly chalk anything up to a single factor, like the moon, is a bit of a stretch. I think, one of those magical early to mid November mornings when bucks are on their feet and moving well into the daylight hours and displaying all of those cool rut related behaviors...you know those mornings that keep you in the woods and fills you with anticipation and when the adrenaline is surging....i just think that there are so many factors and variables playing out there that it is awfully hard to extrapolate all that activity out to a single factor....like moon phase. To me the likely culprit to those events unfolding is a perfect combination of things like, any day between November 5th and 15th, herd population dynamics, hunting pressure, weather conditions, specific location (as in being in THE right spot at THE right time for both on stand observations and even trail camera set ups)...why not throw into that mix having a moon phase that could have an observable favorable impact on deer movements that day into the cauldron of that mix. I also think you could take any number of those favorable conditions and have them be less than favorable and still have a damn good day on stand in early November....

I guess the short version is i dont think anybody can securely pin it down to just one factor or condition and use that to base accurate predictions on. I think that if i had to just pick one condition that might out rank others and help me choose what day or days to take off, i would just look at the calendar. I personally seem to have the best luck anywhere from November 5th to November 15th....of course there are outliers to those dates. With my best encounters, harvests, and observed mature bucks being November 6th, November 7th, November 8th, November 9th, November 11th, and November 13th. Each one of those dates has either produced an encounter with a mature buck while on stand but no shot opp, or i missed my shot, or i have harvested a mature deer on those days. It also seems to coincide with when my trail cameras pick up daylight activity of mature bucks, or when i have seen mature bucks in the middle of the day while driving around etc. Most years over the last 10 or so years i keep a notebook in my truck and i record date, time, location, and any other observations i think/thought were important at the time, about mature buck sightings/encounters/harvests while on stand or day time trail cam pics, or bucks seen while i'm out an about. those 6 dates i listed above happen to make up about 78% of my entries across all years. Of course there are factors that skew those results....but i think it gives a good indication as to the timing of the period of the most intense day time rut behavior...which to me is the best time to hunt them...if nothing else its the most exciting time to do so. Of course...all of this is only relevant to my geographic area.